Picking two of the four horsemen for the Tigers isn’t difficult at all. The lineup boasts the reigning two-time AL MVP. The starting rotation features an AL Cy Young Award winner. Actually, there are two Cy Young Award winners among Detroit’s starting five, including last year’s honoree. But one is more important to the Tigers’ fortunes this season, as I’ll attempt to argue. This foursome doesn’t necessarily represent the Tigers’ four best players, but rather the four who could most influence their success or failure this season.
Miguel Cabrera
Paging Captain Obvious, right? Cabrera’s won two consecutive AL MVP awards and three straight AL batting titles. He’s one season removed from winning baseball’s first Triple Crown in 46 years — and might have won another had he not been hobbled by a groin injury that eventually required surgery. This is the best hitter in MLB.
Could Cabrera’s production be affected at all by Prince Fielder no longer hitting behind him? Perhaps, unless you think lineup protection is a myth. And maybe there will be some adjustment early in the season as Cabrera moves back to first base. But Cabrera was already a perennial MVP candidate and All-Star playing first base before Fielder arrived in Detroit, and will continue to compete for those honors now that he’s gone. (Besides, Cabrera has Victor Martinez hitting behind him. We’ll get more into that later, but it’s not like Brendan Ryan hits after Cabrera in the Tigers’ batting order.)
One question certain to follow Cabrera is whether or not the Tigers will sign him to a new contract. He’s signed through 2015, but until he and Detroit agree to a contract extension, there will be concerns that he’ll eventually move on. The Tigers do have payroll concerns for the future, and Cabrera will likely begin to decline by the time his contract expires. Can the team afford to sign Cabrera to another huge deal, based more on what he’s accomplished rather than what he’ll contribute in the future? Owner Mike Ilitch does have a history of rewarding his longtime stars in baseball and hockey with “thank you for your service” contracts.
Justin Verlander
Another obvious pick, but what kind of four horsemen for the Tigers doesn’t include their best hitter and best pitcher? Verlander won the AL Cy Young Award in 2011 and almost won it again in 2012. Despite Max Scherzer winning those honors last season, Verlander is still Detroit’s unquestioned No. 1 pitcher. He’s the ace, the guy who want starting the decisive game of a postseason series.
Verlander is coming off a down year during which he went 13-12 with a 3.46 ERA, while his rate of walks per nine innings increased and his strikeout rate slightly decreased. That led to frequent whispers throughout the season that he was hurt. Verlander maintains that his struggles were due to his mechanics falling out of sync (losing his arm slot). But there’s some belief that the core muscle injury that required surgery this offseason may have contributed to Verlander’s decline in performance.
Perhaps there’s some slight concern as to whether Verlander will be ready for opening day because of that surgery. Though he’s behind a couple of weeks in his spring regimen as a result, all accounts are that Verlander is pitching well and pain-free, and thus should be on track to be ready for the beginning of the season. Just think of how good the Tigers could be if both Verlander and Scherzer are pitching at a Cy Young Award level at the top of their rotation.
At 31 years old, there may be some underlying concerns about Verlander’s future performance with six years remaining on his contract. Yet Verlander has shown that he can change his game as he ages, relying less on his blazing fastball and further developing his slider, curveball and changeup.
Victor Martinez
With Fielder traded to the Rangers, many Tigers fans have worried about less power in the lineup. More specifically, they’re concerned about a lack of left-handed power. Martinez isn’t going to slug 30 to 35 home runs like Fielder can (and probably will, hitting at Rangers Ballpark Globe Life Park), but he’s consistently hit .300 or above throughout his career, will likely drive in 100 runs and might still pop 20 homers. He’s arguably the Tigers’ second-most important offensive player.
Cabrera doesn’t figure to suffer with Martinez batting behind him, likely in the cleanup spot. Even with Fielder presumably protecting him, Cabrera still drew 90 walks last season — 19 of them intentional passes. Martinez will still make opposing pitchers pay for putting Cabrera on base in front of him. It’s possible Martinez could be even better at it because he strikes out less and makes more contact than Fielder.
Martinez is in the final year of his contract and with the Tigers watching payroll more closely, it’s very possible that he won’t be back next season. Yet Detroit will still need a designated hitter, and perhaps Martinez will be willing to accept a short-term deal as he’ll turn 36 during the next offseason. He’ll be even more valuable to the Tigers if his body holds up while playing catcher in National League parks during interleague play.
Joe Nathan
Why Nathan and not Scherzer? Scherzer is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and if Verlander struggles again (especially early in the season as he recovers from core muscle surgery), he’s the team’s top starting pitcher. The Tigers could have difficulty winning the AL Central and returning to the postseason if he doesn’t pitch again at a high level.
OK, maybe I’m picking the wrong guy. But how much trouble will Detroit’s bullpen be in if Nathan, 39, begins to show his age and is no longer the closer that he was the past two seasons with the Rangers? The bullpen is full of question marks besides Nathan, making his presence vital. The setup crew is made up of an unproven prospect and veteran reclamation project. And the middle relief corps is staffed by uncertainties who need to improve this year.
An established closer like Nathan presumably holds the unit together and provides reliability in the ninth inning — something the Tigers didn’t have for a big chunk of last season. During the past two years in Texas, he compiled a 2.09 ERA with 80 saves and 151 strikeouts in 129 innings. The Tigers haven’t had that sort of performance from their closer since Jose Valverde’s career-best season in 2011. But Nathan has better control and is far less likely to put tying or go-ahead runners on base in a save situation. He’s not a roller coaster.
