The Atlanta Braves are such a well-crafted, well-balanced team that picking just four players crucial to their 2014 success isn't easy. Two offensive starters were absolutely awful in 2013, and the Braves still coasted. Both top set-up man blew out their elbows, and Atlanta didn't flinch. Only three starters made 30 starts, and it wasn't an issue. But while all that is fine and dandy, which four players are most crucial to the Braves' success in 2014?
Freddie Freeman
Atlanta is staking their future on Freeman after signing him to an eight-year, $130 million extension this offseason. Last season, Freeman had the best year of his young career, putting together an MVP-caliber .319/.396/.501 line with 23 home runs. The Braves hope that's only the tip of the iceberg for him, and that he keeps improving his game across the board.
If he gets hurt, there's no other option in the organization except for Ernesto Mejia or Mark Hamilton, neither of whom has shown they can hit at the major league level. Without their cleanup hitter, Atlanta would be in a very difficult spot without a ready-made replacement that can step in, and Freeman's contract wouldn't allow them to pick up more than a cheap upgrade.
But if Freeman does stay healthy, and his numbers fall back down to 2012's .259/.340/.456, the Braves could be in another difficult spot. It's not as if Freeman's free agency is on the horizon any time soon, and a mediocre line like that really isn't worth $130 million over eight years, especially at a position like first base. Freeman needs to at least maintain his performance and not start taking steps backwards for the Braves to be comfortable going forward.
Evan Gattis
Oh yes – the Gattis thing. The 27-year old came on like a wrecking ball in 2013, smashing 12 homers in his first two months of the year. But his performance tailed off as the season went on, and even though Gattis homered six more times in September, he only hit .255/.270/.510 for the month. It'll be interesting to see if he can handle the grind of a full major league season behind the plate – Gattis caught just shy of 250 innings behind the dish last year.
The story is good, the start of his major league career was phenomenal, but the final two-thirds of his season was inspiring. Gattis has the tough task ahead of him in replacing a franchise icon, Brian McCann. A .291 OBP isn't going to do the trick, even if he still hits 20+ homers over a full season. The progression of Gattis' offensive skills, and perhaps the evolution of those skills to more than just power, could be the most intriguing thing to watch in 2014 with the Braves, especially when Christian Bethancourt is expected to start the year in AAA and be knocking on the door of the majors in 2015.
Andrelton Simmons
Even if Simmons is a below average hitter, he's still a regular a shortstop because of his amazing glove. In 2013, Simmons had quite possibly the best defensive season ever at any position, earning rave reviews from everyone in the game. That facet of his game is probably not going anywhere in 2014, barring an injury.
However, Simmons' bat is what really captivates me. He never hit too much in the minors, but no one expected him to – he hit a total of six home runs in 1042 career minor league plate appearances. Fast forward to 2013, and Simmons launched 17 homers in the majors, something that no one ever expected. His overall triple slash was still middling – just .248/.296/.396. But Simmons put together that season with a middling .247 BABIP, 35 points lower than his career low up until that point.
Simmons' batted ball profile really raises some eyebrows. From his 2012 debut in the majors to 2013, he kept his line drive rate consistent while hitting more balls in the air and fewer on the ground. When you look at that trend, his BABIP should improve, taking all three slash stats with it. Can you imagine if Simmons transformed from a better Jack Wilson into…well, Jack Wilson with an above average offensive skillset? What the hell would that player look like, Cal Ripken? If Simmons' offense improves in 2014, we could be looking at one of the best players in baseball.
Brandon Beachy
And then, there's Brandon Beachy. The Braves have enough rotation depth so that Beachy's health won't be a deal breaker for the squad, but there are plenty of questions about the 27-year old's health after his 2012 Tommy John surgery. Beachy made just five starts in 2013 before being shut down, and the results were both encouraging and disappointing – he had a 4.50 ERA in 30 innings, striking out 23 and walking four, but allowing five homers and showing slightly diminished velocity.
Beachy was excellent for the Braves in 2012, recording a 3.68 ERA and 169 strikeouts in 141 2/3 innings, and very good in 2013, pitching to a 2.00 ERA and notching 68 strikeouts in 81 innings. If he can get back up to that level, the Braves will be in an enviable position with upwards of seven viable starting pitchers. However, if Beachy suffers another setback in his recovery, he could actually end up being a non-tender candidate this upcoming winter, going into his second year of arbitration.
The Braves are a better team with a healthy, effective Beachy in their rotation, but they won't fall apart without him. But a healthy Beachy allows the Braves a lot more flexibility with Alex Wood, and that *will* make them a better team this year, even if Beachy isn't striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faces.
