The Diamondbacks had two of the National League’s biggest breakout players last season, but also had problems when it came to power in the middle of the order and locking down late leads. It stands to reason, then, that the four horsemen for Arizona in 2014 are those two breakout stars and the two guys they brought in to fix last year’s problems.
Paul Goldschmidt
No matter what metric you used, Goldschmidt was the most valuable Diamondback in 2013. As the lone true star player on the team, he’ll likely be the most valuable Diamondback again this year. There wasn’t a ton of power in Arizona’s lineup last year — behind Goldschmidt’s 36 home runs, the next highest total was Martin Prado’s 14 — and while there should be more home run pop this season, he’ll still be relied upon to be the main offensive weapon. He’ll need to put up similar numbers to last year’s breakout campaign if the Diamondbacks are going to be a true threat in the wildcard race.
Something else to keep an eye on with Goldschmidt: his defense. He’s not just your typical lumbering power hitter at first base. Single-season defensive metrics are always flaky, but he’s gone from a guy with a reputation of not being a great defender to (at the very least) having a very good year in 2013. If his defensive improvements are for real, he’s that much more valuable for the Diamondbacks, who manage to put out one of the better defensive lineups in the league every year.
Mark Trumbo
Arizona brought in Trumbo to give Goldschmidt a Bash Brother and beef up the middle of the order. They paid a big price to do so, sending Tyler Skaggs back to the Angels and Adam Eaton to the White Sox. It’s pretty clear that they’re counting on him bouncing back from a season in which he hit .234/.294/.453 with 184 strikeouts and just 54 walks but still managed to make enough contact to hit 34 home runs. He’s a defensive liability and pretty much is what he is without much hope for improvement at this point, but it’s worth noting that the ZiPS projection system has him pegged for a .269/.320/.514 line this season. The Diamondbacks still likely overpaid for him, but he does do one thing really well, and that one thing happened to be a big need for them. It’s not like he’ll be counted on to carry the offense — that’s what Goldschmidt is for — and with Goldy and Aaron Hill likely hitting ahead of him, he should have plenty of three-run homer chances.
Patrick Corbin
Corbin was the “other” pitcher the Diamondbacks got when they traded Dan Haren to the Angels. Now, with Tyler Skaggs shipped back to Anaheim in the Trumbo deal, he’s the only player they have left from the deal. When the top of Arizona’s rotation struggled with underperformance and injuries last season, Corbin put together a breakout first half, earning his first All-Star appearance and even getting some Cy Young buzz. Things fell apart in the second half, however, as he had an ERA north of 5 in 13 post-All Star starts. Corbin heads into this season as the Diamondbacks’ de facto #1 starter, and will need to pitch more like he did in the first half of last season if Arizona is going to stick around in any postseason race. He’s not as good as the Kershaw-ian 2.35 ERA he rode to that All-Star appearance, but he’s not as hittable as he was in the second half, either. Fittingly, he’s probably about as good as where his final numbers ended up last season, although the Diamondbacks would probably like to see them come as the result of more consistent performance.
Addison Reed
Reed was a rarity coming up through the White Sox system — a pure reliever that still received top prospect hype. Usually guys become relievers after never finding that third pitch as a starter and failing in the starting rotation. Reed was drafted as a reliever and anointed a Future Closer from day one. While he’s racked up 69 Major League saves before turning 25, he hasn’t been nearly as unhittable as expected. After striking out about 38% of all the batters he faced in the minors, he’s “only” struck out 24% of the batters he’s faced in the majors. There should probably also be a little bit of concern about Reed and his career ground ball rate of just 32.3% moving to Chase Field, but despite the high number of ground balls he hasn’t given up an abnormal number of home runs.
He’s still very young for a reliever, and a move to the National League should help his numbers a bit. The Diamondbacks are counting on him to help solidify a bullpen that was a disaster last season, tying the Houston Astros for the league lead in blown saves. It’s probably safe to assume this move is going to play out better than the Heath Bell Experience, and Reed will be under team control long enough to see if he ever develops into the dominant closer everyone thought he’d be.
