Go ahead and pull Homer Bailey's name off of the free agent market for next winter – he's reportedly signed a six-year extension with the Cincinnati Reds worth $105 million. The right-hander will turn 28 in May, and was the seventh-overall pick in the 2004 MLB Draft.
Bailey has come into his own during his last two years in the league, tossing a pair of no-hitters and crossing the 200 inning mark in both 2012 and 2013, the first time in his career he hit that threshold.
Bailey's 2013 season is likely what spurred this extension. Despite his 11-12 record, Bailey struck out 199 hitters and walked 54 in 209 innings, pitching to a 3.49 ERA. Bailey also increased his ground ball rate in 2013 to a mark slightly above the league average. The major increase in his strikeout rate, from 19.2% to 23.4%, was also a factor in his success last year.
But the Reds are really paying nine figures for two solid seasons of production at the major league level. This extension will cover his age 28-33 seasons, and the $25 million mutual option would be in line to cover his age 34 season. That's a lot of money for a guy that has only qualified for the ERA title twice in his major league career and is coming off of far and away the best season of his career.
Bailey has also had shoulder issues during his career – he never had surgery, but has spent multiple months on the DL because of his right shoulder in both 2010 and 2011. Since his second DL stint in 2011, Bailey hasn't missed a start – but the lack of surgery makes me very wary about his future health, even if his velocity rose in both 2012 and 2013.
While I may not agree with the absurdity of this contract, the Reds needed to do something to shore up the future of their rotation. Both Mike Leake and Mat Latos are free agents after 2015, and Johnny Cueto will likely be joining them, assuming the Reds pick up his $10 million club option for next season. Cincinnati did promote Tony Cingrani to the majors in 2013 to excellent results, and top prospect Robert Stephenson is knocking on the door, but they couldn't face the prospect of having absolutely no one else in the majors in 2016.
Giving Bailey an extension might have been the easiest course for the Reds because of Leake's inconsistent major league performance, Cueto's injury history, and the higher cost it would probably take to retain Latos.
With Bailey joining Clayton Kershaw off the market, next winter's free agent class of starting pitchers takes another hit. Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are the closest thing to flawless pitchers that the market has, as guys like Josh Johnson, James Shields, Jake Peavy, and Justin Masterson all have a variety of question marks, be it age, injury history, or inconsistency.
