The Yankees decided to thumb their nose at the luxury tax last winter, returning to their big-spending ways with a huge free agent shopping spree. Unfortunately, the result was the same — they missed the playoffs. While they’ll at least finish with another winning season, it’s all about the championships in New York, and it’s the first time since 1992-1993 they’ve missed the postseason in back-to-back years.
Preseason Prediction: Even with age and injury looming over this roster, it a fair sight better than last year’s incarnation of the Bronx Bombers. Tanaka gives the rotation more front-end depth and Ivan Nova appears ready to take a step forward. While some of have knocked the Ellsbury signing since he replicates a lot of what Brett Gardner already does, his presence gives the lineup a more athletics dynamic. McCann and Beltran won’t totally replace the production of Cano, but it makes the middle of the order deeper, especially with Jeter and Teixeira back and, hopefully, healthy.
It really all comes down to how fragile the roster proves to be. If they get good health, the Yankees will be in position to win the division, but there is just so many risks that it would be foolish to assume good health. With worse, but not catastrophic luck, this roster is probably more at a level where they will be in contention for the division, but probably more seriously in contention to land a Wild Card spot. (Garrett Wilson, March 19th)
What Went Right: Masahiro Tanaka was every bit as good as the hype…until he got hurt. Before his elbow flared up, not only was Tanaka the runaway favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, but he was a legitimate Cy Young candidate, as well. He gave the Yankees a legitimate top-of-the-rotation presence.
Michael Pineda was also fantastic this year when he was healthy and not getting suspended for pine tar, which is encouraging, but at the same time missing half the season with a strained back/shoulder muscle after missing an entire season with a shoulder injury isn’t exactly encouraging, either. At least the Yankees have gotten more out of Pineda than the Mariners have out of Jesus Montero.
Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley also proved to be savvy mid-season pick-ups that cost next to nothing to acquire, and the back end of the bullpen with Dellin Betances and David Robertson alleviated any concerns about how they’d fare without Mariano Rivera.
What Went Wrong: Predictably, just about everyone got hurt. Ivan Nova needed Tommy John, Tanaka had his own Tommy John scare, and Pineda’s shoulder flared up again. The guys who did stay healthy couldn’t hit, with high-priced additions Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann putting up disappointing debut seasons in the Bronx. CC Sabathia was terrible for eight starts before being shut down for the year, and is still owed what seems like a billion dollars (it’s actually $48 million over the next two seasons, with another $25 million tied to a vesting option for a third year). Filling second base after Robinson Cano bolted for Seattle was a disaster, third base without Alex Rodriguez was just as bad before Headley was acquired and Derek Jeter was a huge drag on the offense while Joe Girardi refused to move him from the second spot in the order.
Even with surprisingly good pitching from the guys who stepped in, the offense was so bad that it’s no wonder this was barely a winning team. They’re ending the year without a single truly scary bat in the lineup.
Most Surprising Player: How about Dellin Betances? With so much attention on how David Robertson was going to handle taking over for Mariano Rivera in the 9th, not many people thought about who was going to replace Robertson as the lockdown eighth inning presence. The former top prospect was thisclose to becoming another Yankees pitching bust, but found his niche in the bullpen this year as a 26-year-old rookie. All Betances did was (through 70 appearances) put up a 1.40 ERA in 90 innings, striking out 13.5 (!!) batters per nine innings. His 3.2 WAR (measured by FanGraphs) has him tied for second among all Yankees pitchers, trailing only Hiroki Kuroda’s 3.4. Factor in position players, and he’s still 3rd on the team in WAR behind Jacoby Ellsbury (3.6) and Kuroda, while he’s tied with Brett Gardner at 3.2. It’s probably safe to say that nobody — even the few that still believed in his chances of succeeding out of the bullpen — saw a year like this coming.
Most Disappointing Player: Not everyone can go out at the top of their game like Rivera did. But Derek Jeter’s final year was a very disappointing finish for one of the best offensive shortstops of his generation. For the first time in his career, Jeter was a replacement-level player. It was sad to see, but the Yankees likely would have been better off had Jeter retired after his injury-plagued year last year. This Derek Jeter was a shell of a shell of his former self, and nobody in New York had the heart to take him out of his #2 spot in the order, let alone the lineup altogether. In the end, Jeter got his farewell tour, but it came at the expense of winning — and a possible playoff berth.
The Future: Usually the Yankees just patch holes with more free agents, and while that may work for a couple spots this winter (could they try to steal J.J. Hardy away from the Orioles?), there comes a point where even the Yankees have too many bloated, immovable contracts. While they’ve recently tried to re-emphasize building the farm — especially through going bonkers in the international market — a lot of those pieces are still a ways off.
A full-blown collapse and a losing season next year still seems unlikely, but another year of low-to-mid 80s wins could be possible if whatever patchwork they do doesn’t come through and the pitching takes a step back after a few surprise performances. Unless they can find a sucker for their long-term dead money like Boston did, though, they’re going to have to keep working around it for a few years.
