Last December, Carlos Beltran signed a three-year, $45 million contract with the New York Yankees to be their right fielder and designated hitter. Among the final bidders for Beltran was his former team, the Kansas City Royals.
The Arizona Diamondbacks reportedly made the best offer for Beltran, but the 36-year-old ultimately wanted to play for the Yankees and accepted less money to sign with them. Yet the Royals were in the running until the end. At the very least, they were willing to meet Beltran’s demands for a three-year deal, which several other clubs had no interest in. Kansas City may have even matched the $48 million that the D-Backs reportedly offered, according to some reports.
Upon being reminded that Beltran nearly signed with the Royals during the offseason, it’s natural to wonder what effect he might have had on this team. With Kansas City batters scoring 15 runs in the first five games of the 2014 World Series — which includes being shut out by Madison Bumgarner in Game 5 — while hitting a collective .221 with a .572 OPS, could Beltran have made much of a difference?
He may have had an impact against Bumgarner. Though the two have faced each other only nine times, Beltran has gotten three hits in that match-up, two of them home runs. A .333 average and 1.333 OPS certainly looks impressive, but it’s a small sample size to draw a judgment from. Naturally, there are other factors to consider that we just don’t know for certain, such as whether or not Beltran was healthy during the postseason.
The Royals certainly would have been a different team during the regular season with Beltran in their lineup. Chronic knee injuries and a recurring elbow issue that eventually cut his season short limited Beltran’s time in the outfield this year. But when he did play right field for the Yankees, he wasn’t very good. According to FanGraph’s Ultimate Zone Rating, Beltran allowed four more runs than the average player at that position. He was also credited with -6 Defensive Runs Saved.
Compare that to Norichika Aoki, whom the Royals acquired from the Brewers after they lost out on Beltran. He saved more than five runs over the average right fielder, though he was charged with -8 Defensive Runs Saved. With Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain, along with Jarrod Dyson in reserve, Kansas City would still have had an impressive defensive outfield. It just wouldn’t have been as elite a run-prevention unit, which had a significant impact for this team.
How about offensively? Aoki batted .285 with a .710 OPS, 22 doubles and one home run in 549 plate appearances. However, he did steal 17 bases, something that became a major part of the Royals’ run-scoring strategy.
Beltran did hit for more power, knocking 15 home runs with a .402 slugging percentage. But he only batted .233 with a .703 OPS, his worst offensive season in which he played at least 100 games. As mentioned earlier, Beltran struggled with knee and elbow injuries throughout the season, limiting him to 109 games — only 33 of which were played in the field.
If Beltran had to play so frequently at designated hitter, what would manager Ned Yost have done with Billy Butler? The eight-year veteran had his worst season at the plate in 2014, but did hit for a higher average (.271) and provided nine more doubles than Beltran. He also appeared in 42 more games. Playing Butler at first base wasn’t an option with Eric Hosmer manning that position.
Realistically, if the Royals had signed Beltran, general manager Dayton Moore would have needed to trade Butler. The Mariners had expressed interest in Butler through midseason. Last offseason, Kansas City also talked to the Blue Jays about a deal involving Butler. Could he have yielded a reliever or reserve infielder in return?
Of course, the Royals may not have had a need for a reliever had they not dealt Will Smith to Milwaukee in exchange for Aoki. The left-hander appeared in 78 games this year for the Brewers, compiling a 3.70 ERA with 86 strikeouts (and 31 walks) in 65.2 innings.
Smith actually may have been a nice fit in the Kansas City bullpen throughout the season, as Yost didn’t have an effective left-hander to use until Brandon Finnegan emerged late in the season as a September call-up from Double-A. Previously reliable Tim Collins dealt with an elbow injury early in the season, and had control difficulties when he returned. That eventually got him demoted to the minors.
Neither Finnegan nor Collins has been terribly effective against left-handed hitting during the World Series, which is obviously a problem against a Giants lineup stocked with southpaw hitters. Perhaps Smith would have had problems against batters like Joe Panik, Gregor Blanco and Pablo Sandoval as well, but he could have provided another middle-inning option for Yost as he looked for effective relievers between his starting pitcher and the late-inning trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland.
So would a Royals team with Beltran in the lineup and Smith in the bullpen have experienced as much — if not more — success than the roster that made it to the World Series and still has a shot at winning a championship? It’s a fun question to ponder with all of the different possibilities it opens up.
via Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Beltran would have provided more power, if he stayed healthy, and Smith could have been a power left-hander out of the bullpen. Yet given how well Kansas City has played during this postseason with a formula based on pitching, speed and defense, handily defeating the Angels and Orioles, it just doesn’t seem likely that this team would perform any better. The Royals’ front office and fanbase surely doesn’t regret the transaction that wasn’t made.
Check back during the offseason, however. Aoki is a free agent, which could leave the Royals with an opening in right field. He probably won’t be expensive to re-sign, having made $1.5 million this year. But if other teams pursue him as a leadoff hitter and defensive upgrade in the outfield, Aoki could get a bigger contract than the Royals would like to pay. Additionally, Kansas City likely doesn’t want to pick up Butler’s $12.5 million option for 2015. The team could either buy him out for $1 million or pick up the option and trade him. Having Beltran for another two years would have solved both of those problems.
But those are dilemmas for the Royals to face after the season. This season is still very much in play with a World Series title still attainable. That’s a far better story than Beltran returning to the team with which he began and spent the first seven seasons of his MLB career.
