Since the qualifying offer system became a part of MLB free agency after the 2013 season, no player has accepted the one-year contract instead of testing the open market.
During the past two offseasons, 22 free agents were extended qualifying offers — the amount of which is determined by the average annual salary of baseball’s top 125 contracts — by the teams with which they last played, and all of them were declined.
However, that could change this year. Of the 12 players that received qualifying offers by Monday’s (Nov. 3) 5 p.m. ET deadline, at least a couple of them are in a position where accepting that one-year, $15.3 million contract could be preferable to whatever offers they may find in free agency.
Additionally, those players could see their market value significantly reduced because receiving a qualifying offer means that teams signing those players would have to surrender their 2015 first-round draft pick. That’s a high price to pay for middle-to-lower tier free agents more suited to fill a role than make a major impact.
The following four players in particular may ultimately figure that a one-year, $15.3 million deal is preferable to whatever uncertainty awaits in free agency. They have until Nov. 10 at 5 p.m. EST to decide whether to accept or decline the qualifying offer.
Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer immediately stood out among the 12 free agents that received qualifying offers on Monday. What were the Rockies thinking in offering a one-year, $15.3 million contract to a 36-year-old player that appeared in only 49 games last season due to hamstring and shoulder injuries?
Not to mention that Colorado is loaded with young outfield talent, some of which could now be blocked from a major league roster spot by an aging veteran who will cost more in 2015 than the team had to pay. It’s a baffling decision, really.
The qualifying offer arguably hurts Cuddyer, as well. Teams that need a good bat in a corner outfield spot (such as the Mets) or one that may need a designated hitter (like the Tigers) may have been interested, but are very unlikely to sign Cuddyer if it means losing their first-round draft pick. And would any team sign him for $15 million? He might not see anything higher than $10 million per season on the open market.
That leaves Cuddyer with virtually no other choice than to take the qualifying offer. As the Denver Post‘s Patrick Saunders points out, he could still negotiate a two-year deal with the Rockies. Or Colorado could trade one of its outfielders (Carlos Gonzalez?) to clear a spot for Cuddyer and perhaps get some pitching help in return.
Joe Lucia takes a more in-depth look at Cuddyer’s situation here.
Francisco Liriano
Liriano getting a qualifying offer from the Pirates is a less baffling decision than Cuddyer because there’s still a clear role in their pitching rotation for the 31-year-old left-hander. He could very well be Pittsburgh’s No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole next season. Spending $15.3 million on such a pitcher isn’t a bad use of payroll.
Extending a qualifying offer to Liriano was a sensible risk for other reasons. Starting pitching is at such a premium that a team might want to sign Liriano to a multi-year deal and surrender its first-round pick. A club that stresses building through the draft and player development would certainly find a compensatory first-round selection extremely useful.
However, if Liriano doesn’t find a multi-year offer on the open market, teams may want to avoid offering a one-year contract — and thus losing its first-round pick — to an injury-prone pitcher who had an increased walk rate (4.5 per nine innings) in 2014.
Could he be this year’s Ervin Santana or Kyle Lohse? With a free agent market relatively deep in starting pitching — especially mid-rotation arms — Liriano could draw less interest. Faced with that possibility, accepting the qualifying offer looks preferable than taking a lesser contract and perhaps waiting until well after spring training begins to do so.
Ervin Santana
Another candidate to be this year’s Ervin Santana is… Ervin Santana. If teams weren’t willing to give up a first-round draft pick or offer a multi-year contract to the right-hander after posting a 3.24 ERA and throwing 211 innings for the Royals in 2013, is he likely to see any better offers this winter?
Santana had a good season for the Braves, signing in March after the market yielded no contract offers. Atlanta was desperate for starting pitching due to injuries and was willing to give up its draft pick since it received a compensatory first-round selection for losing Tim Hudson in free agency.
But will Santana’s 3.95 ERA and 196 innings in 2014 attract more interest than existed a year ago? He did compile a higher strikeout rate last season (8.2 per nine innings), but also had an increase in walks (2.9) and hits (8.9) allowed per nine frames.
Santana may be the best of the second-tier starters (below the Max Scherzer-Jon Lester-James Shields power trio), which could result in him getting a long-term contract from a team seeking a mid- to back-rotation pitcher. If so, that would surpass the one-year qualifying offer. But having gone through this process a year ago, Santana may decide it’s ultimately better to just take the $15.3 million and play for a team that needs him as much as it did in 2014.
David Robertson
As the one “true” closer on the open market, Robertson could draw enough interest that he’ll receive a contract better than what he’d get from the qualifying offer. But MLB teams also seem to be learning that it’s better to give that role to a less expensive player that’s been developed in-house than spend big money on a possible bust.
Would Robertson see a $15 million salary in free agency? Last year’s top available closer, Joe Nathan, got a two-year, $20 million contract from the Tigers. So yes, Nathan got more overall money, but received less in annual salary. Brian Wilson also got $10 million from the Dodgers, though he presumably signed with them as a setup man (perhaps hoping he could beat out Brandon League or Kenley Jansen for ninth-inning duties).
However, Robertson will turn 30 next April. He’s much younger than Nathan and Wilson. The right-hander has also been consistent and durable, throwing at least 60 innings and appearing in a minimum of 63 games in each of the past five seasons. Yet he’s also been a capital-C, experienced closer for just one full season. That might not be enough of a track record to attract big contract offers.
If Robertson is seeking a deal close to the four-year, $50 million package Jonathan Papelbon received from the Phillies in 2011, he almost certainly won’t find it. That sort of market just doesn’t exist for closers anymore, and if it ever did, it’s because teams like Philadelphia were willing to overpay for those sorts of relievers. Robertson may decide it’s better to accept the Yankees’ qualifying offer, get a higher salary for 2015 than he would have in free agency and test the market again next winter.
