With an exciting, young starting rotation bolstered by the return of Matt Harvey and what appears to be a solid lineup, the New York Mets could be a contender next season in the NL East.
Naturally, we’re early in the offseason and don’t yet know what moves each team in the NL East can still make. But the Braves look as if they’re renovating, while the Phillies are finally accepting their rebuilding. So that leaves it to the Mets and Marlins to compete for a NL wild-card spot, and perhaps challenge the Nats for the division crown.
The Mets began their roster tinkering quickly by signing Michael Cuddyer to a two-year, $21 million contract. And they moved in those right field fences at Citi Field again. But general manager Sandy Alderson may still need to find a shortstop and probably some relievers to fill out that bullpen. I’ve suggested that the team explore trading Zack Wheeler to fill at least one of those holes, but it’s understandable that most Mets fans aren’t big on that idea.
The Mets may also want to hang on to Wheeler for next season because it’s uncertain how their No. 1 starter will perform. Matt Harvey is coming back for his first full season after missing all of 2014 while recovering and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The expectation is that the right-hander will be healthy enough to take his place atop the Mets’ rotation, but it’s not realistic to think that Harvey will provide the team with 34 starts and 200 innings.
Alderson acknowledged that Harvey will have his innings “managed” next season, which brought to mind what the Washington Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg in 2012.
In his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Strasburg’s innings limit was a storyline that hung over the Nats throughout the season as they charged toward an NL East title and the best record in MLB. Eventually, GM Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson decided to shut Strasburg down at 160 innings in September.
With their presumed ace unavailable through September and the postseason, the Nationals eventually lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS. The question of whether or not it was the right decision plagued the Nats. Would they have won the World Series had Strasburg still been allowed to pitch?
Rizzo insists the team had a plan for Strasburg all along, though never gave a definite number for his innings limit. To this day, I still believe the Nats were caught off guard by the team’s success in 2012, perhaps expecting to contend but not projecting a division title or 98 wins.
Had management foreseen a championship contender, the plan for Strasburg likely would have been different. Rather than set an innings limit that he would reach in September on a regular schedule, with a full month to go in the regular season, his workload would have been managed by skipping turns in the rotation, giving him some time off, and maybe shortening some of his starts in an effort to extend him into October.
Eliminating the innings limit question also would have addressed another concern that manager Davey Johnson had when Strasburg was shut down. Johnson thought the constant queries about the pending shutdown got into Strasburg’s head and became a significant distraction. That didn’t speak well of Strasburg’s mental suitability to be an ace, but to be fair, it was also his first full season as a major league starter.
Surely, the 2015 Mets would love to be in a similar position as the 2012 Nationals. That will probably be difficult to pull off, as the Mets’ current roster isn’t nearly as talented as the Nats were two seasons ago, especially in the bullpen. But if Alderson makes some key additions, ownership opens up payroll a bit, and Washington plays far below expectations, maybe the Mets will find themselves in a similar position.
What we do know, however, is that the Mets won’t impose an innings limit on Harvey. Whether Alderson and manager Terry Collins are directly applying lessons learned from the Strasburg shutdown or arrived at this conclusion themselves, they will handle Harvey different during the 2015 season.
Like Rizzo two years ago, Alderson won’t commit to a specific number of innings (though 150 to 160 is probably a good guess). But he did say that Harvey’s workload will be monitored and adjusted as needed to extend his season through September — and into October, if the Mets are in such a fortunate position. Starters can be moved up or back, depending on off days in the schedule. Pitchers can be called up from the minors for spot starts.
And maybe, though the Mets would never admit this, Harvey could develop a “tired arm” or some other ailment that requires him to go on the 15-day disabled list. As ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin points out, the team did something similar with Jacob deGrom last season, sitting the rookie down for two weeks, after which he pitched well and eventually earned NL Rookie of the Year honors.
This might all be just a bit presumptuous. But looking at the Mets roster, it’s difficult not to get excited — especially with the pitching the team could feature next season. Yes, the lineup has to score more runs. (Getting a shortstop that can hit would be a big help.) And the bullpen needs some more reliable arms.
Of course, the Mets’ ownership, front office and coaching staff could find other ways to shoot themselves in the foot next season. But regarding their prized arm, the team appears to have learned from the past and is determined not to repeat mistakes that others have made.
