It’s true that the stats show a small sample size and all that, but in a World Series, matchups and tendencies play the biggest part in determining who comes out ahead. With only one team to prepare for and five days to get ready, here are a few of the matchups that most definitely got picked apart by both teams heading into Tuesday night’s opener:
Buster Posey vs. The Royals Running Game
You’re gonna hear this beaten into the ground over the course of the series when the Royals have speed on the base paths. Can the Giants control what the Royals do best? While Posey is highlighted here, the pitchers are a key factor, as well. A quick bit of math tells you why this is such a huge matchup.
Buster Posey’s pop time (catch and throw to second) averages around 1.85, which is very good for a Major League catcher, where the league-wide average is about 2 seconds. The average time a pitcher comes home is about 1.3 seconds. When someone like Jarrod Dyson or Terrence Gore is on the base paths looking to swipe a bag, you’re talking about guys who can steal a base in about 3 seconds flat, with Gore being the rare guy who can do it in under that if all things go right.
So if you’re a Giants pitcher and one of the speed guys for KC is over at first base, it makes you change a lot in your delivery home. Lefties like Madison Bumgarner, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt will have to change their motions constantly to deceive the runners and keep them from getting a good jump. The problem for San Francisco will be the right-handed pitchers. Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong will have to utilize the slide step constantly, and a lot of the Giants relievers have high leg kicks that makes it easier to steal on.
A final note: Teams this late in the season can take their time during these days off to work on specific things for an upcoming series. You can bet that every pitcher on the staff has been working on their slide steps. If they can get the ball home fast enough, Posey’s fantastic work behind the plate is going to give San Francisco a chance to neutralize the running game that has made KC a success this season.
Pablo Sandoval vs. Royals left-handed pitching
The switch-hitting Pablo Sandoval was horrible against left-handed pitching this year. Like so bad Madison Bumgarner hit better than him in half the plate appearances. .199/.244/.319. That’s disgusting. Yet somehow, someway, he’s only had THREE at-bats against lefties in the postseason in 47 plate appearances. A lot of this has to do with lineup placement, with Sandoval sandwiched between Posey and Hunter Pence, but considering the Giants will have the lefty trio of Brandon Belt, Travis Ishikawa and Brandon Crawford following Pence, the Royals should know that once you see #48 get in the box later in the game, switching him over to the right side of the box would be a good thing.
Jason Vargas is slated to start Game 2 of the series, which might make Bruce Bochy get a bit creative with his lineup creation, but expect Sandoval to stay in his normal spot in the lineup. With relievers Brandon Finnegan, Danny Duffy and possibly former Dunedin Blue Jay Tim Collins in his bullpen, Ned Yost should see Kung Fu Panda as the catalyst for a pitching change later in the game. While Bochy hasn’t done it yet this postseason, pinch-hitting Joaquin Arias hit .305/.339/.381 against lefties this year in limited time. He might be worth a look.
Michael Morse, DH vs. Kansas City at home
Quite possibly the biggest offensive matchup of the series is the recently healthy Morse acting as the DH in the World Series games that will take place at Kauffman Stadium. Billy Butler has long been the Royals DH, but Morse seems like a natural fit for the Giants, and suddenly, that lineup gets that much better when you add .279/.336/.475, a 133 wRC+ and 16 homers into a lineup that already features above-average Major Leaguers (100 wRC+ or better) at every spot in the lineup. The National League club looks more like the American League club and vice versa in this series, and it’s because of Morse and what he does to the rest of the lineup.
Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer vs. Madison Bumgarner
This might be the key to the entire series for Kansas City. Gordon was the team’s best player in the regular season, but after disappointments abound, Moose and Hosmer have broken out in the postseason with power production that Royals fans were salivating over when they were a part of The Greatest Farm System Ever. But as good as they have been in the postseason, they have yet to face a pitcher as good as Madison Bumgarner.
While Clayton Kershaw gets all the accolades (and deservedly so), there is perhaps no pitcher in the postseason that has been more impressive in big games than Bumgarner, especially on the road. 26 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball on the road is a record, and Bumgarner will once again be asked to go into enemy territory and quiet the hot bats.
Obviously, the other reason I picked this match-up is because it’s lefty on lefty. Bumgarner had a 1.40 FIP against left-handed batters this year. Meanwhile, Moustakas was downright horrible against lefties this year (.172/.241/.313, 55 wRC+), Hosmer (.264/.297/.378, 87 wRC+) was below average and Gordon (.256/.340/.446, 124 wRC+) didn’t have a platoon split at all, really. In the postseason, Gordon has struggled against lefties while Moustakas has a homer and Hosmer has destroyed worlds regardless of what is coming at him. The Hosmer at-bats against Bumgarner will be especially interesting to watch.
Bruce Bochy vs. Ned Yost
Finally, the managerial matchup that looks like a mismatch from the get go. Bochy is the best manager in baseball today and has figured out a perfect balance with this team with everything from lineup management to substitutions to bullpen management. If you wanted to start a ball club today and needed a manager, Bochy is your guy.
On the other side, Yost has been at the center of controversy thanks to the supposed many bone-headed decisions he’s made. He’s rigid with his bullpen and loves to bunt. When it comes to the statistical advantages of baseball, you might as well be teaching Yost a foreign language.
But the reason both guys are here is because the teams they manage fit the styles they manage. Bochy loves to be creative while Yost likes to grind things out. Both guys have players who fit those molds, with Yost’s speedy club matching his style almost to a T. Regardless of what you might think of the moves he makes, there is no doubting that the success Yost has had is due to to how well he knows his team and what he feels he can trust them with, ESPECIALLY on the base paths.
There will be breaking points for both clubs. For the Giants, it’s whether the power they showed in the finale of the NLCS is for real, and if it isn’t, how will they score runs against a team that pitches well and can shorten the game. If this team doesn’t hit, Bochy doesn’t have much to turn to in the form of offensive firepower. On the other side, Yost can go to his bench for Dyson and Gore to wreak havoc on the base paths late in games. But if the Giants offense DOES come alive, does he have enough in the bullpen to bridge the gap to his three aces? And much like his team did in the Wild Card game, can the Royals figure out a way to come back from an early deficit without their sacrificing and bunting ways taking away outs they need late?
It’s one of the more unique World Series in recent memory. The matchups above and plenty others will determine a winner between these two unlikely teams. And it’ll be fun to see who can come out on top.
