Late Tuesday night, it appeared that we had our first big trade rumor of the offseason with the Cubs reportedly talking to the Nationals about acquiring pitcher Jordan Zimmermann.
According to the Chicago Sun-Times‘ Gordon Wittenmyer, trade negotiations had progressed to the point that other names to include in the deal were being discussed, which seemed to indicate that this was pretty serious. However, as quickly as that rumor spread around social media and among baseball writers and fans, other beat reporters who cover the Cubs shot down this report equally as fast after talking to their sources.
So can we now write this trade rumor off, or is there still something to it?
We know that the Cubs are seeking a No. 1 pitcher for their rotation. They’ve been doing so for the past two years, pursuing Anibal Sanchez and Masahiro Tanaka in free agency. This year, the open market appears to work in the Cubs’ favor, with Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields leading the 2015 MLB free agent class. Many have tried to connect the dots between Lester and the Cubs, figuring the left-hander reuniting with team president Theo Epstein (his former general manager with the Red Sox) was a natural fit.
But with a farm system now famously overloaded with position talent, Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer also have the resources to trade for a starting pitcher and perhaps allocate the team’s available dollars to a position more difficult to fill. The Cubs have been rumored to make a run at Russell Martin, the top catcher available in free agency. Of course, Epstein could throw big money at a catcher and starting pitcher, but exploring trades obviously opens up more options.
Linking the Cubs and Nationals on a Zimmermann trade does check off a few boxes that give the rumors some validity. Zimmermann is one of the best pitchers in the National League, though he often gets overlooked as such in a rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. But his 2.66 ERA was seventh among qualifying NL starting pitchers last season, and his 1.07 WHIP ranked in the top five. FanGraphs’ WAR placed the 28-year-old as the second-best pitcher in the NL behind Clayton Kershaw. If the Cubs want an ace, Zimmermann can be that guy for them.
On the other side, the Nats need some infield help. There’s an opening at second base with Anthony Rendon moving permanently to his natural position at third base (with Ryan Zimmerman presumably shifting over to first), Danny Espinosa hitting .219 with a .634 OPS (and 122 strikeouts in 364 plate appearances), and Asdrubal Cabrera seeking a big contract in free agency (possibly for a team that gives him an opportunity to play shortstop).
Additionally, current shortstop Ian Desmond is a free agent after the 2015 season and will be in line for a large multi-year contract that the Nationals may not be interested in funding. (He reportedly turned down a seven-year, $85.5 million extension in February.) Desmond provides more power than the typical MLB shortstop, averaging 23 home runs over the past three seasons. But his batting average, along with his on-base and slugging percentages, have declined each year during that span. So has his defensive range, according to advanced metrics.
The Cubs may have a future logjam in their middle infield with current shortstop Starlin Castro, top prospect Javier Baez (who played frequently at second base), Arismendy Alcantara (whose future appears to be in the outfield) and future star Addison Russell, acquired in the trade that sent pitcher Jeff Samardzija to Oakland.
With some creativity and position changes, all of the Cubs’ young talent (which also includes third baseman Kris Bryant) could be accommodated. But that surplus may be better utilized by addressing the team’s needs in the starting rotation and bullpen. Dealing someone like Russell in exchange for Zimmermann seems like a logical move.
However, this is where the Cubs trading a top prospect (or including him in a larger package) for Zimmerman doesn’t quite make sense. The right-hander can be a free agent after the 2015 season, and Epstein is highly unlikely to trade a future star under multiple years of inexpensive team control — or even an established player under contract for at least five more seasons, like Castro — for a player who might only play in Wrigleyville for one year. That is, unless Zimmermann signed a long-term extension with the Cubs.
But Zimmermann declined a long-term extension offered by the Nationals, opting instead for a two-year, $24 million package that bought out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility. The financial value of that longer-term extension isn’t known, but Zimmermann surely looked at the six-year, $105 million deal Homer Bailey signed with the Reds this past February and felt that set the bar for a future contract. He’ll be 29 years old going into next offseason — younger than Scherzer and Lester now — and figures to find a huge deal in free agency.
Additionally, it’s difficult to see how trading Zimmermann makes the Nationals better next season, as the team pursues a World Series championship that’s been expected for them the past two seasons. With Zimmerman, Desmond, center fielder Denard Span, starter Doug Fister and reliever Tyler Clippard in the final years of their respective contracts, 2015 could represent the Nats’ last best shot at winning a championship with the current cast GM Mike Rizzo has assembled.
While dealing Zimmerman could improve the middle infield, it would also weaken a starting rotation that sets the Nats apart from fellow NL contenders. Additionally, the Nationals may face increased competition in the NL East from the Marlins and Mets next season. So is it really the year to think about the future when a division title and league pennant are still within reach?
Yet Wittenmyer didn’t just come up with this Zimmerman report on his own, citing multiple sources. What has to be considered, however, is the various agendas such rumors might serve.
Are the Nats trying to send a message to Zimmermann, hoping to pressure him into signing an extension? (That doesn’t seem like a great idea.) Are the Cubs attempting to indicate to Lester’s people that they can pursue other options if his contract demands are outrageous? (That seems like smart business.) Is Epstein signaling to his peers that he’s willing to trade a top prospect or two for the right pitcher? Is Rizzo telling other teams that he’s pushing hard to get a second baseman or middle infield help?
With a potential deal opening up so many possibilities and raising several questions, it doesn’t seem likely that Zimmermann-to-the-Cubs is going to quietly go away despite beat reporters debunking the rumors. Maybe the Cubs and Nats are sizing each other up and this trade may be revisited during the winter meetings approximately a month from now. Perhaps some of the names or teams involved in the deal could change.
For now, two general managers are thinking creatively in attempting to improve their respective teams. That hints at a potentially exciting offseason of wheeling and dealing ahead. Keep this rumored deal filed away for future reference.
