For now, the headlines in Boston are occupied with the (reported) marquee signings of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to free agent contracts. And rightly so. Adding the two best hitters on the open market provides a major boost to a lineup that ranked No. 12 in the AL with 634 runs scored and second to last with a .244 team average and .684 OPS.
But signing Ramirez in particular creates even more of a roster crunch where the Red Sox already had a surplus. With Xander Bogaerts, 22, already on hand, Boston appears to have its shortstop of the present and future. That would especially seem to apply because Ramirez isn’t a good defensive shortstop. According to advanced metrics, he allowed 10 runs more than an average player at that position last season.
Bogaerts didn’t have a great year defensively either and batted a disappointing .240 with a .660 OPS. But at 22 years old, the thought has to be that he has a significant chance to improve. While there’s a chance Bogaerts could be used in a deal for a starting pitcher like Cole Hamels, the likelihood is that Ramirez will play left field in Boston. And the Red Sox were already loaded with outfielders.
So how does general manager Ben Cherington clear up this logjam?
The belief throughout baseball has been that the Red Sox are trying to trade Yoenis Cespedes. He reportedly hasn’t gotten along with coaches and has irritated the front office with an unwillingness to move to right field and improve his defensive skills. But Cespedes is also set to be a free agent after next season and apparently isn’t interested in signing a long-term extension. With that, a scarcity of right-handed power in MLB and a $10.5 million salary that’s below market value for a player with his skills, Cespedes figures to be in demand.
Yet Boston can only get so much in return for a player who might only be with his next team for one season. That makes Mookie Betts a more appealing trade candidate. Some Red Sox fans took issue with my suggestion that Betts will be traded, but it makes sense. The team signed Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo to a seven-year, $72.5 million contract with the intention of playing him in center field. Of course, Castillo could be moved to right field or Betts could switch positions.
But Betts has shown he can hit in the majors, batting .291 with an .812 OPS last season. He’s also under club control for seven more years, which includes all of his arbitration eligibility. The argument could certainly be made that Boston should hang on to a player like that, since the team will be spending money on Ramirez and Sandoval, in addition to whatever additions Cherington makes to the starting rotation. Yet that kind of cost certainty would also be extremely appealing to several clubs and could yield a strong return in trade.
Another Red Sox outfielder under multiple seasons of club control is Allen Craig, who’s under contract for three more seasons at a combined $25.5 million. (His deal includes a $13 million team option for 2018 versus a $1 million buyout.) An average annual salary of $8.5 million is good value for a potential .300 hitter capable of 25 home runs and 100 RBI. But Boston would be selling low on Craig, coming off a poor 2014 season in which he hit .215 with a .594 OPS overall. (He batted .128 with a .425 OPS in 107 plate appearances for the Red Sox.)
However, with so many teams seeking right-handed power, Craig could be a fit for several teams needing a corner outfielder or first baseman. (The Rangers, Mariners, Padres and Reds are among the teams that come to mind.) And he could probably be acquired relatively cheaply.
Shane Victorino is yet one more Red Sox outfielder that wouldn’t yield much in trade. He’ll be 34 years old by spring training and is coming off a lower back injury that limited him to 30 games last season and eventually required surgery. Victorino will only be one season removed from batting .294 with an .801 OPS and 21 stolen bases, while playing outstanding defense in right field. That might be enough to interest a team in need of a corner outfielder who can bat near the top of the lineup, especially if Boston eats some of Victorino’s $13 million salary.
Jackie Bradley Jr. also has to be mentioned among the Red Sox’s trade assets. There have to be significant doubts as to whether he can hit in the major leagues after he batted .198 with a .531 OPS in 423 plate appearances. However, a team in need of excellent center field defense might be willing to overlook Bradley’s lack of hitting for a player who saved 16 runs more than the average from that position. Cherington could look the Blue Jays trading Anthony Gose to the Tigers for second base prospect Devon Travis as a template to follow.
Looking at the options available to Boston’s front office, trading Cespedes seems like a certainty. He’s left without a position if Ramirez moves to left field and will draw plenty of interest from teams seeking a middle-of-the-order run producer. Craig and Victorino also appear sure to be moved, even if their health concerns might prevent the Red Sox from getting full value in exchange. Dealing all three players would likely save some money that could either be allocated to starting pitching or create payroll flexibility to use later on.
However, I’ll still argue that Betts is the guy to trade. The Red Sox can sell his 2014 performance, a ton of upside for a player still years away from his prime and multiple seasons of club control that should make him relatively inexpensive. Additionally, Betts can play more than one position, though considering the premium on quality center fielders in MLB, his future at that position is likely assured.
Cherington figures to be very popular among his colleagues in two weeks at baseball’s winter meetings. He’ll have plenty of pieces to move, several of which should be in demand because the Red Sox have already taken two of the top free agent hitters off the market. While signing Ramirez and Sandoval appears to be a curious change in direction for a franchise that learned its lesson about paying out big free agent contracts, those moves create the kind of roster surplus and flexibility that gives Cherington plenty of options. What more could a general manager want during the offseason?
