The Minnesota Twins are probably going to end 2014 with their best record since 2010, but given that they’re coming off three-straight 96-loss seasons, that’s not exactly a consolation. This once proud franchise has fallen onto rough times, and their 2014 season could be their most disappointing year considering the additions the club made in the offseason.
Preseason Prediction: The Twins aren’t contending for anything this year. This isn’t quite a throwaway year, but it’s one where they come in with minimal expectations. There’s still reason to watch this team, with names like Mauer and Nolasco in the fold, but the true excitement comes in watching their youngsters. Keep an eye on guys like Meyer or Buxton as the season wears on, as we might just see them at some point in 2014. (Randy Holt, March 4th)
What Went Right: Phil Hughes at three years and $24 million looks like an absolute steal right now thanks to Hughes’ newfound ability to simply not walk anyone. The 3.55 ERA is fine, but the 11.00 strikeout to walk ratio is just absurd. Kyle Gibson took a nice step forward in his first full season in the majors. Closer Glen Perkins remained excellent, and set-up man Casey Fien was also quite good, despite a decreased strikeout rate.
On the offensive side, Brian Dozier put together a 20/20 season at second base, the first Twin to reach each of those marks since Torii Hunter in 2004. Rookie Danny Santana has stormed his way to a two-win season in just over a half-season worth of games. Kurt Suzuki had a solid rebound year behind the plate, earning himself a two-year extension. Eduardo Escobar’s bat finally progressed to a league average level, and he saw playing time at five different positions over the course of the season. Rookie Kennys Vargas made the leap from AA to the majors after the trade deadline and played very well despite a hideously low walk rate. Trevor Plouffe somehow turned good months in April and August into a three-win season.
What Went Wrong: Joe Mauer spent time on the DL despite moving from catcher to first base, and only hit four home runs at his new position en route to one of the worst seasons of his fantastic career. Jason Kubel homered just once, and was released in June. He was replaced on the roster by Kendrys Morales, who hit just one homer in 39 games and was traded back to the Mariners. Josh Willingham played in just 68 games before the Twins finally gave up and traded him to the Royals. Ricky Nolasco’s ERA is closer to 6.00 than 5.50. Kevin Correia’s ERA with the Twins was just under 5.00 before he was dealt to the Dodgers. Mike Pelfrey made five starts of 7.99 ERA ball before elbow surgery ended his season. Prospect Trevor May continued to walk everyone under the sun during his late-season stint in the major leagues. Top prospect Byron Buxton played in just 31 games in the minors due to injuries, and #2 prospect Miguel Sano didn’t play one after Tommy John surgery.
Most Surprising Player: Hughes has to be the answer here. Barring an injury or a shellacking down the stretch, he’ll finish 2014 with the first 200 inning season of his career at age 28. He’s more than likely going to finish the season with the best strikeout rate in his career as a starter, and could finish the year with the best walk rate of any player in baseball – including relievers. Three years and $24 million is a mild investment for that kind of year, and even if Hughes regresses to his former self in 2015 and 2016, the Twins will have already gotten their money’s worth.
I’ll also toss in a good word for Suzuki, who had his best season since 2011 and hit for a career-high batting average. Yeah, he’ll be 31 after the season, but given the receiving struggles that Josmil Pinto had this year, keeping Suzuki around for another two years at just $12 million isn’t outrageous.
Most Disappointing Player: The answer here is one of two players, both of whom are getting money through 2018 – Nolasco and Mauer. Nolasco has taken his tendency to underperform his peripherals to the next level in 2014, posting an ERA nearly a run and and a half higher than his 4.44 FIP, which is the worst mark in his career since his 2006 rookie year. He’s just been putrid, and to add a cherry on top of his awful year, Nolasco spent a month on the DL in the summer with an elbow injury, just his second DL stint since a 2007 elbow injury robbed him of all but five appearances in the majors.
And then, there’s Joe Mauer. I think we all expected Mauer to have less overall value moving from catcher to first base, but I don’t think *any* of us expected him to just completely stop hitting. .275/.357/.373 with four homers is a gross line for a first baseman, let alone one that is getting paid $23 million per season. Now, he has been much better in the second half since returning from an oblique strain, so hopefully, he’ll be able to build on that solid month of play heading into 2015. Regardless, you don’t want two players that will be making a combined $35 million in each year from 2015-17 to both have horrendous seasons at the same time.
The Future: The injuries that robbed Buxton and Sano of their seasons this year will hopefully be in their rear-view mirrors in Spring Training, and if both of them are ready to contribute along with top pitching prospect Alex Meyer, the Twins should be on the right track for the future. A rotation featuring Hughes, Gibson, a hopefully healthy and resurgent Nolasco, and Meyer could be one of the most interesting to watch in the American League, and the duo of Buxton and Sano could be the missing links in an offense that already includes Mauer, Dozier, Suzuki, Vargas, and Plouffe. I’m not sitting here claiming that the Twins are going to be a contender in 2015, but there’s really no excuse for them being this bad and having another 90+ loss season.
