While the race between the Royals and Tigers receives most of the attention in baseball this week — at least from Monday through Wednesday, when the two clubs meet in a three-game series — another AL Central team seems to getting overlooked.
Yet perhaps it’s the Cleveland Indians that could eventually emerge as the AL Central champion or nab one of the league’s two wild-card spots. As of Sept. 9, the Tribe are still looking up at Kansas City and Detroit in the division, five games out of first place and four behind the Tigers. Cleveland also trails the Mariners by 4.5 games in the wild-card standings, with the Yankees and Blue Jays just a half-game back.
That’s quite a bit of ground to make up with 19 games remaining in the regular season. (The Indians and Royals also have to finish a game that was suspended on Aug. 31 in the 10th inning, with Cleveland leading 4-2.) However, if the Tribe continues to play as well as it did during August, it’s not at all unreasonable to believe this team will be contending for a playoff spot to the end of September.
In August, the Indians went 17-9 — or 18-9 if you count that Aug. 31 game in which they have a two-run lead. Only the Royals (19-9 — or 19-10) and Orioles (19-9) had a better record for the month.
It’s not much of a mystery as to why Cleveland was so successful. As a team, the Tribe had a 2.39 ERA, .220 opponents’ batting average and .609 opponents’ OPS during August, all three the best in MLB. This is also when more people seemed to notice just how well Corey Kluber has been pitching this season. For the month, he compiled a 2.10 ERA in five starts with 43 strikeouts and 11 walks in 34.1 innings.
Trevor Bauer also showed some significant progress, posting a 3.34 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 35 innings. (Yet 20 walks shows he still has some work to do.) Carlos Carrasco is another young pitcher finally fulfilling his promise, allowing a .179 opponents’ batting average and striking out a batter per inning. Danny Salazar held opposing batters to a .208 batting average to go with a 2.77 ERA. And maybe the biggest surprise was T.J. House, with a 2.89 ERA in five starts and strikeout rate of 8.4 per nine innings.
And that’s just the starting rotation. The Indians’ bullpen has also done great work, led by closer Cody Allen. In August, he struck out 19 batters in 14.1 innings while compiling a 1.26 ERA. Setup man Bryan Shaw allowed two runs and one walk in 16.1 innings. Scott Atchison may not be a strikeout threat out of the bullpen, but he allowed just four earned runs in 15.2 innings. Left-handers Marc Rzepczynski and Nick Hagadone allowed a .211 and .170 opponents’ batting average, respectively.
If not for that pitching, Cleveland might not be in playoff contention because its lineup hasn’t provided many runs. During August, the Indians batted .250 as a team with a .683 OPS, ranking them right in the middle among AL teams. Perhaps that shouldn’t be a complete surprise with Jason Kipnis struggling all season, Ryan Raburn looking like a fluke and Nick Swisher being lost for the season with a knee injury.
Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes have really been the Tribe’s only consistent run producers all season. While Carlos Santana is carrying a .230 batting average, he’s getting on base (.366 OBP) and hitting for power (25 homers). Lonnie Chisenhall, who’s had a breakout season, is batting .245 (26-for-106) since Aug. 1.
As the Plain Dealer‘s Paul Hoynes points out, that’s forced manager Terry Francona to mix several rookies into the lineup, hoping to generate some offense. Shortstop Jose Ramirez, outfielder Tyler Holt and infielder Jesus Aguilar provided a boost in August, but have struggled thus far through early September. Perhaps those young players are wearing down, playing later into a season than normally accustomed.
It seems doubtful that the Indians can stay in playoff contention without a boost in offense. But as long as the starting rotation and bullpen provide quality pitching, perhaps this formula can continue to work. It also doesn’t hurt that the Royals and Tigers are beating each other up, perhaps allowing Cleveland to hop over them in the standings.
Both Kansas City and Detroit have a series with the Indians remaining, and the AL Central leaders could knock the Tribe out of the race in those six games. But if Cleveland can win one of both of those three-game sets, the rest of their schedule doesn’t appear terribly difficult.
The Indians begin a three-game series with the last-place Twins this week and have three more games in Minnesota next weekend. Cleveland also has four games against the Astros next week and hosts the Rays for the final three games of the season. That could provide just enough of an edge for the Tribe to slip by their three competitors in the AL playoff race and return to the postseason for the second consecutive year.
