The AL Central is perhaps the most well-rounded division in all of baseball. They’ve won AL pennants in two of the last three years. Two of the three AL Wild Card games were hosted by AL Central teams. yes, the Tigers have won the division for four straight years, but the Indians and Royals have both won at least 85 games in each of the last two seasons. The White Sox won 85 in 2012, and appear to be gearing up for another run at the division crown following the acquisitions of Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Jeff Samardzija this winter.
However, one team appears to be standing at the top of the division this winter, despite only making one significant move – the Cleveland Indians are looking like the the team to beat in the AL Central, though it’s still early in the winter.
Cleveland stumbled out of the gate last year with an 11-17 April, and that record was no fluke – the club was outscored by 26 runs in that first month. But something clicked after that, and Cleveland went 74-60 the rest of the way, the fourth-best mark in the AL (just a half worse than the Mariners). However, that hole proved to be too deep – the Tribe finished five games back of the Tigers for the division crown and three games behind the Athletics for the AL’s second Wild Card berth. The death blow was a three game sweep in Detroit with two weeks left in the year that pushed Cleveland from three games out to six. They wouldn’t get that close again.
But the core was already built, and the Indians weren’t faced with losing key parts like the Tigers and Royals were. Cleveland returns eight of their top ten hitters in fWAR from 2014, with the lone departures being Asdrubal Cabrera (who was traded to the Nationals at the trade deadline) and backup catcher George Kottaras, who was waived in July. Cleveland also brings back versatile bench pieces Mike Aviles and Zach Walters, platoon outfielders Ryan Raburn and David Murphy, and Nick Swisher. One or two of the latter three probably won’t be back in 2015 following the acquisition of Brandon Moss, which created a serious logjam in the outfield, first base, and DH.
The situation with the Indians pitching staff is somehow more palatable than the situation with their offense. 13 of their top 14 pitchers from a year ago return – the lone exception is Justin Masterson, who was traded to the Cardinals at the deadline. The Indians weren’t just thinking about 2014 at the trade deadline – they were thinking about 2015 too. Instead of letting Cabrera and Masterson walk after disappointing years, the club turned them into controllable assets, namely Walters and outfielder James Ramsey.
It’s perfectly reasonable for you to think that bringing back their best players doesn’t mean the Indians will compete in 2015. But remember, this is a team that featured the 2014 AL Cy Young winner (Corey Kluber), a top 3 AL MVP candidate (Michael Brantley), a once-busted prospect who was dominant in the second half (Carlos Carrasco), and one of the best hitting catchers in baseball (Yan Gomes). There is plenty of talent here, and the Indians don’t need to worry about making a splash this winter. They don’t need to replace a top of the rotation pitcher, like both the Royals and Tigers may need to do. They don’t have questions on offense like both teams do, and the White Sox, for that matter, do.
Of course, a lot can happen over the next four months. Detroit could re-sign Max Scherzer, make a play for Melky Cabrera, and sign three closers to make their bullpen dummy-proof. The White Sox could continue their wild winter and further strengthen their team for 2015. The Royals could somehow re-sign James Shields and Nori Aoki to bring back largely the same squad that came one game away from a World Championship. However, the Indians don’t need to do any of that. We don’t need to talk hypotheticals with Cleveland. This is a team that has already put together a club that can win the AL Central, and right now, I’d peg them as the favorite to do so.
