The NL Central was supposed to be a three-team race between the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds this year. St. Louis and Pittsburgh fulfilled their expectations, but Cincinnati fell off in a major way.
Coming into the season, the Reds were viewed by some as a better club than the Pirates. The team showed what it was capable of at its best, going 18-10 in June and getting as close as 1.5 games out of first place in the division in mid-July. But everything had to go right and everyone had to stay healthy for that to continue. Cincinnati broke down significantly in August and were never able to recover.
The Reds were officially eliminated from playoff contention on a night when manager Bryan Price benched virtually his entire starting lineup after almost getting no-hit by the Cubs’ Jake Arrietta in their previous game. It was an ignominious, yet somehow appropriate, unofficial end to a deeply disappointing 2014 season.
Preseason Prediction: While it is disappointing to see the Reds sit on their hands in the offseason, they did basically make two major acquisitions by handing featured roles to Hamilton and Cingrani, so it isn’t as if the roster suddenly is devoid of talent. Their rotation should once again be amongst the best in the NL and their bullpen should be a real asset, as always.
In fact, the relief corps, headlined by Aroldis Chapman, could be an even bigger weapon than before now that Bryan Price is in charge and willing to employ some more progressive tactics. He is already talking about utilizing Chapman in high leverage situations outside of the ninth inning and possibly even using him for more than one inning at a time.
Getting away from Dusty Baker’s archaic philosophies might also inject some new life into the lineup. For years they’ve shot themselves in the foot by sacrifice bunting too much and letting offensive zeroes like Zack Cozart bat in the two-hole. While the lineup isn’t all that deep, is losing Choo and still lacks a potent right-handed bat to hit behind Joey Votto there is enough there to be a league average lineup or maybe even a little bit better.
Put it all together and the Reds should once again be poised to challenge the Cardinals for the NL Central crown with the loser having a very good chance at securing one of the Wild Card spots. (Garrett Wilson, March 12th)
What Went Right: As predicted during the preseason, the Reds did have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Though their 3.60 team ERA, 581 runs allowed and .692 OPS (as of Sept. 18) ranked in the middle of the NL, Reds pitchers held opposing batters to a league-best .239 average.
Those numbers were established largely on the strength of the starting rotation, whose collective 3.37 ERA ranked third in the NL. Johnny Cueto was once again one of top starters in the league, ranking behind only Clayton Kershaw with a 2.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a .195 opponents’ batting average.
Cueto hasn’t been known as a strikeout pitcher, surviving — and succeeding — at Great American Ball Park by relying on groundballs. But in 2014, the right-hander changed that part of his game significantly, using his slider less while throwing his cutter more often and working a curveball back into his arsenal.
As of Sept. 18, he’d racked up 228 strikeouts in a NL-leading 227.2 innings. A rate of nine strikeouts per nine innings is easily the highest of Cueto’s seven-year MLB career.
What Went Wrong: Unfortunately, the Reds’ bullpen didn’t perform nearly as well as the starting rotation. Cincinnati’s relief corps compiled a 4.16 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .718 opponents’ OPS, all second-worst in the NL. Other than Aroldis Chapman (who didn’t pitch until May after being hit in the face by a line drive during spring training) and Jonathan Broxton (eventually dealt to the Brewers at the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline), Reds relievers were a disaster.
But the real failure for the Reds this season was its offense. As a team, Cincinnati’s .238 batting average and .662 OPS ranked second-to-last in the league. Their 560 runs (as of Sept. 18) were the NL’s third-fewest total. Jay Bruce hit .214. Brandon Phillips posted a .670 OPS. Rookie Billy Hamilton stole 56 bases, yet only had a .298 on-base percentage.
Todd Frazier (26 home runs) and Devin Mesoraco (23 homers, .901 OPS) were the team’s only consistent offensive threats. That wasn’t nearly enough for the Reds to stay competitive with the Cardinals, Pirates and Brewers in the NL Central.
Most Surprising Player: In his previous two seasons with the Reds, Alfredo Simon had worked exclusively as a reliever. During his six prior major league seasons, he’d only started 19 games. But with injuries to Mat Latos and Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati needed another starting pitcher and Simon transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation with more success than anyone could have expected.
Simon is on track to make more than 30 starts and approach 200 innings, third-best among Reds starters behind Cueto and Mike Leake. Having to pace himself over a starter’s workload likely affected Simon’s strikeout rate. His 5.8 Ks per nine innings is the lowest in his past five seasons. Yet there was no notable increase in his walks or hits allowed per nine innings.
However, Simon was a less effective pitcher in the second half of the season, perhaps an indication that the different role and added workload eventually took its toll. After going 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 18 starts during the first half, Simon posted a 2-7 record and 4.46 ERA in 12 starts (with two or three remaining) after the All-Star break.
Most Disappointing Player: Not many teams could produce runs with its best hitter struggling or injured, and Joey Votto provided little this season. Votto has been criticized in the past for taking walks, rather than swinging away to produce more runs. But that was a moot point with the 2010 NL MVP missing so much time this season.
A quad injury limited Votto to 62 games, keeping him out of the lineup after July 5. But even when he was healthy, the Reds first baseman was slogging through the worst season of his career. In 262 plate appearances, he compiled a slash average of .255/.390/.409 with 16 doubles, six home runs and 23 RBI.
This season was the first year of Votto’s 10-year, $225 million contract extension. That’s hardly an encouraging start, though Votto’s struggles could be attributed to a fluke injury that won’t necessarily be repeated in future seasons. (Votto has been healthy through most of his eight major league seasons.) But at age 30, it’s very possible that Votto is beginning a downward trend and beginning to wear down. That doesn’t bode well for the remaining nine years left on the mega-contract.
The Future: It’s not looking bright here. The Reds are taking on the appearance of a team whose playoff contention window is steadily closing. The core of the roster is aging, and there is little young position player talent in the minor league system to infuse the lineup with some youth.
Cueto is signed to a $10 million club option that the Reds will surely pick up. Mat Latos has one more year of arbitration eligibility next season and will get a raise from this year’s $7.25 million salary. Virtually the same goes for Mike Leake, who earned $5.9 million this year. Simon is also set to be a free agent after next season, and the Reds will have to decide if he helps them more as a starter or if the bullpen would benefit from his return.
Earlier this season, I thought the Reds should be sellers at the trade deadline, shedding salary from their payroll and bringing in some prospects to revitalize the minor league system. The same circumstances apply as Cincinnati goes into the offseason. Any of the pitchers mentioned above could be traded to a club seeking starting pitching. Dealing Homer Bailey and the $96 million left on the remaining five years of his contract could create some much needed payroll flexibility for a team that hasn’t had much to work with in recent seasons.
Cincinnati could try to stay competitive by keeping its starting rotation together and making one last run at a NL Central title or wild-card spot next season. But have they already been passed by in their division by the Brewers, while clubs like the Marlins and Mets look to be on the rise next year? With so many pieces breaking down this season, the Reds appear to be in need of an overhaul. This could be the time to do it, while the team has several appealing players to trade.
