One of the more interesting storylines coming out of the GM meetings in Arizona this week is the Atlanta Braves and the seemingly inevitable need to blow up everything the organization has built up in recent years. And while the possibility of a full-blown rebuild is daunting, and something the Braves haven’t truly taken on in a good 25 years (failure to compete in the late-2000s notwithstanding), it might be necessary for them, given the state of the team and the NL East.
The NL East is a very tough division, regardless of the fact that only one team finished above .500. The Braves finished tied for second in 2014 with the New York Mets at 79-83. The Miami Marlins were right behind those two clubs at 77-85. The Washington Nationals ran away with the division crown. And while Atlanta’s hitters were the second-youngest in baseball and their pitchers were the fourth-youngest, that youth didn’t necessarily translate to success. The club’s offense put together a sad .665 OPS, better than just three teams in baseball, including the Phillies by a hair. The team’s 3.38 ERA was fourth-best in baseball, but the Braves are losing a pair of pitchers that combined to toss 400 innings last year – veterans Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana. There aren’t exactly many in-house replacements to replace those two in the starting five.
Atlanta’s in a bad position when it comes to free agency too. They’ve got first baseman Freddie Freeman, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, and starting pitcher Julio Teheran all locked up long-term. Those contracts are seemingly countered on the scale by the guaranteed money past 2015 going to B.J. Upton, closer Craig Kimbrel (who is great, but is still a reliever), and Chris Johnson. Outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, who finished first and third on the team in fWAR this season, are both free agents after 2015, and there isn’t much hope that either can be signed long-term.
Thus, we’re left with the situation we have now in Atlanta – a severely depleted farm system, a rotation that only goes three deep before any free agent signings, and a bad offense that has two (three, if you want to count Simmons’ anemic bat) below average performers locked up for the next couple of seasons, while two of the best performers are hitting free agency. When you also throw in Atlanta’s terrible bench and a bullpen that is getting more and more ravaged by injuries (but is somehow still effective), and you have all the makings that needs to simply push the button and wave the white flag on 2015.
But where can the Braves even go from here? They need to restock their farm system, but how much of a return will Heyward and Upton, with just one year of control each, bring back? Johnson and B.J. Upton look borderline unmovable at this point, and the Braves would likely need to eat a significant money to get either go out of town. Based on who’s currently on the Braves roster, the club really only has two pieces that could generate a significant return – starting pitcher Alex Wood (who has thrived in 249 1/3 major league innings, pitching to a 2.89 ERA while striking out 247) and catcher/outfielder/DH Evan Gattis, who can hit the hell out of the ball, but has struggled with injuries, is 28, and isn’t much of a fielder.
What *can* the Braves do at this point? Their club was built going into the 2013 season to contend in a three season window. They won the NL East in 2013, but bowed out of the playoffs in four games, and had an embarrassing 2014. Holding the course with a club that was so mediocre a year ago seems like a fool’s errand – maybe B.J. Upton plays like he did in Tampa Bay, Simmons and Johnson rebound, two young starters step up to fill out the rotation, and the Braves make a playoff run. But that’s a lot that needs to go right, and would require the dominoes to also fall in Atlanta’s direction when it comes to division rivals Washington, New York, and Miami – not to mention the other contenders in the NL Central and NL West, hunting division titles and Wild Cards.
So yes, the Braves should blow it all up. The way I look at, you have two options – start fresh and go into 2016 with hopefully some renewed hope and more young building blocks, or go for broke in 2015 when you have a very slim chance of actually being able to hit those triple sevens and win a jackpot. Atlanta also can’t half ass this rebuild – why trade only one of Justin Upton, Heyward, or Gattis, when the two outfielders are walking after next season anyway and the eventual DH will be entering his first arb season, one year away from age 30? Go big, or go home. Trade everything that isn’t nailed down. Hell, I’d even try to move Kimbrel too – this is a buyer’s market for relievers, and if a team misses out on David Robertson, Andrew Miller, or Rafael Soriano, maybe they’d be more inclined to pay a king’s ransom for the best reliever in baseball signed through 2017 (with a 2018 option).
And here we are. In recent history, the Atlanta Braves have been one of the most proud franchises in baseball. However, even proud franchises need to rebuild. If the Braves don’t choose to embark on a rebuilding process this winter, they’re going to be faced with a much taller task when they’re forced to rebuild next winter.
