Over the last five years, there have been some big matchups in major league baseball’s post-season. Whether it’s the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Rangers, the last 5 years has been all about big market teams making the Fall Classic. Over that same period, the smallest market-team to he reached the World Series was the Red Sox and Cardinals, based on their 2013 estimated population of 645,000 and 318,000 respectively. Red Sox Nation, however, extends far beyond their metro population, and along with the Yankees, they’re the very definition of a big market team. The Cardinal have had more success than any team in the National League and have also built up a fan base that extends gar beyond their city limits. With populations of 600,000 and 500,000 respectively, the Orioles and Royals are very much small market teams. Despite that reality, or perhaps because if it, the 2014 ALCS, which they both clinched an appearance in last night, will be the most expensive over the last five years.
The current average price for Royals playoff tickets to their home games in ALCS is $672, which is 32% higher than the Orioles possible home games at an average of $509. At those prices, the Royals currently have the third most expensive LCS average price over the last five years, with the Orioles coming in fourth. That ranks them behind only 2013 Red Sox and 2012 SF Giants tickets, both big market behemoths. Both of those teams went on the win the World Series and had major metropolitan regions driving up prices as well as TV ratings. While the Royals’ underdog story might play better in primetime, it’s likely that TV ratings will be down from last year regardless of which AL team makes it. There are, after all, only so many people from either city that can watch the game, no matter how great the story is. Ticket prices have exactly the opposite dynamic, in which there are a finite number of seats available to be filled.
In the 29 years since the Royals have made the ALCS, the Yankees have played around 150 playoff games. If we assume that half of those were at home, that’s roughly 75 playoff games at around 45,000 fans per game. That’s approximately 3.4 million fans that have had the opportunity to fill a seat at Yankee stadium for the post-season. In terms of the economic demand curve, Yankees fans have been pretty satisfied over the last two decades. This season, in what was their best season in years, the Royals drew under 2 million people to Kauffman Stadium, which was only good for 63% of capacity. However, now that they’re one step away from the World Series, capacity is exceeding 100%, with fan willing to sit, stand, or crouch to see something that hasn’t been witnessed in over an entire generation: a winner.
While the Royals have gotten much of media attention this post-season, the Orioles have actually had a longer championship drought. The city of Baltimore, however, has not suffered nearly as long as Kansas City fans rooting for any team other than Sporting KC, who won the MLS Cup last season. The Ravens have won two championships since 2000, and the Orioles have been to the ALCS as recently as 1997. They also made the playoffs in 2012. Getting to the World Series, however, would be a different story, and currently the market is asking for average price of $1,789 to the four games at Camden Yards. At those prices, the Orioles would have the most expensive World Series tickets of any team in the last five years.
