It wasn’t supposed to go this way for the Atlanta Braves. In 2013, the Braves won 96 games en route to a National League East title before getting dispatched in the NLDS by the Dodgers. After another hot start to the 2014 season, the Braves quickly fell off and simply began to tread water over the next four months of the season before the bottom completely fell out and sunk the ship in September. But let’s be honest here – 2014 wasn’t very similar to 2013. The Braves never had a lead in the NL East of more than 3.5 games, and the last day they were alone in first place July 18th.
Preseason Prediction: The Braves are going to be in the playoff hunt all year, and I’d be shocked if the NL East wasn’t a dog fight between them and the Nationals. Atlanta’s floor and ceiling are pretty close to one another, and if the Braves are closer to the ceiling than the floor, a return to the playoffs seems likely. (Joe Lucia, February 14th)
What Went Right: Jason Heyward proved that his strong defensive numbers last season weren’t a fluke, and put together another five win season despite disappointing power numbers. Freddie Freeman’s numbers dropped off from 2013, but he still managed to hit .290/.387/.466. Justin Upton managed to top his 2013 numbers while launching 27 homers, despite falling off a cliff in September. Evan Gattis smashed 22 homers while becoming the regular backstop for the Braves. Andrelton Simmons remained one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Craig Kimbrel was still one of the best relievers in baseball, and the trio of Anthony Varvaro, David Carpenter, and Jordan Walden did a great job setting up for him. The rotation quartet of Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Alex Wood, and Aaron Harang were all quite good, totaling 11.0 fWAR over 117 starts (and 11 relief appearances from Wood). Gavin Floyd pitched very well in nine starts.
What Went Wrong: B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla remained terrible, leading the Braves to release Uggla and eat a year-plus of his contract. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both needed a second Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, while Jonny Venters required a *third* over the summer. Gavin Floyd cracked a bone in his elbow to end his season in June after his best start of the season. LOOGY Luis Avilan walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out, and Fredi Gonzalez inexplicably kept using him in big spots. Another LOOGY, James Russell, performed better against righties than lefties. Mike Minor had an up and down season following offseason shoulder surgery. Andrelton Simmons’ bat completely fell apart following a few promising steps forward in 2013. Chris Johnson turned back into a pumpkin following a 2013 season that earned him a three-year contract extension. The team’s bench was absolutely pitiful, led by below replacement level performancea from Tommy La Stella, Gerald Laird, Jordan Schafer, Tyler Pastornicky, and offseason acquisition Ryan Doumit. GM Frank Wren was canned with a week left in the year, which led to a front office press conference that claimed the team hadn’t quit on Fredi Gonzalez. The Braves proceeded to get shut out by the Pirates, their fifth scoreless home game of September.
Most Surprising Player: The season Aaron Harang had for the Braves was mind-boggling. After being cut by the Indians at the end of Spring Training, he was signed by the Braves to replace Freddy Garcia in the rotation until Mike Minor was ready. Six months later, Harang has made 32 starts, thrown 197 2/3 innings, and posted a 3.60 ERA for the Braves. It’s his best season in terms of fWAR (2.5) since 2007, also the last time he threw this many innings in a season. The 3.53 FIP he posted this season was also a career best – not bad for a guy who’s been in the majors since 2002. Frank Wren may be gone, but Harang was a fantastic under the radar signing that worked out incredibly well for Atlanta. Just let someone else sign him for more than $1 million this winter.
Most Disappointing Player: For as much as I want to continue picking on B.J. Upton, he at least improved his stats from 2013 to 2014. But Chris Johnson? This is a guy who had a career year in 2013, was rewarded with a rich, unnecessary contract extension this past winter, and proceeded to lay an egg in 2014. For the season, Johnson has hit .262/.293/.355. His .092 ISO was worse than that of Ramiro Pena, a light-hitting middle infielder, and barely better than pitcher Mike Minor’s .089 mark. The only regular in baseball with a worse walk to strikeout ratio was Adam Jones of the Orioles, who plays a premium defensive position very well and has tremendous power. Furthermore, it’s not as if Johnson’s best years are ahead of him – he’ll turn 30 at the beginning of October. If the Braves never gave him the extension, they could just non-tender him or agree to a low arbitration number with him. Instead, they’re locked for three more years past 2014 to a guy who might not even be a replacement level player. Always a good time.
The Future: This offseason is going to be pivotal for the future of the Braves. Frank Wren is already in the unemployment line. Will Fredi Gonzalez join him? Who’s going to replace Wren s the GM, and will he actually have some sort of autonomy in the Braves front office? Will Justin Upton and Jason Heyward be back, either as lame ducks in their last years of their current deals or under new contract extensions? What’s the rotation going to look like with Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang, and Gavin Floyd all hitting free agency? How will the bench be remade? Will the Braves be able to rid themselves of the potentially sunk costs of B.J. Upton and Chris Johnson? What the hell is going to happen with Evan Gattis? The Braves were supposed to be a contender in 2014, but fell apart. Now, they have more questions than ever and their window may have already shut – that’s not a good thing for a team with a limited budget like Atlanta.
