2014 Season Preview: New York Mets

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

It's never easy being the other baseball team in New York. This offseason did nothing to change that perception for the Mets. The Yankees snatched headlines with a free agent spending spree, signing Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Masahiro Tanaka. The Mets' acquistions may not be as loud or flashy (or expensive), but they could prove to be significant. Yet the team may not be able to get over the gut punch of losing ace Matt Harvey for the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

All signs point to this being a building year, with an eye on contention in 2015. However, if the Mets' young players don't develop and their free agents are busts, that could set back such plans for at least another year. 

Depth Chart (as of 2/12)
C: Travis d'Arnaud
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Daniel Murphy
3B: David Wright
SS: Ruben Tejada
LF: Curtis Granderson
CF: Juan Lagares
RF: Chris Young
SP: Bartolo Colon
SP: Jonathon Niese
SP: Dillon Gee
SP: Zack Wheeler
SP: Jenrry Meija
CL: Bobby Parnell

New Faces
The Mets badly needed a power bat in their outfield. Curtis Granderson makes the crosstown move from the Bronx to Queens to be that slugger. But can he be the 40-homer threat he was without playing in Yankee Stadium and its cozy right field fence? Granderson's numbers figure to take a dip at Citi Field, but a bigger park may necessitate a return to the doubles and triples hitter he was in 2007 and 2008 with the Tigers. Chris Young may also help supply some needed right-handed power, but has to do a far better job of making contact. In the rotation, Bartolo Colon holds the No. 1 starter role until Harvey returns. He provides a veteran presence and innings reliability for a young staff. Could he have more success in the National League?

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Departures
For a team in need of bullpen depth behind Bobby Parnell, it's curious that the Mets let LaTroy Hawkins go. Hawkins may have preferred the chance to be the closer in Colorado, but it's difficult to believe that the Mets couldn't have matched or surpassed the $2.25 million he received from the Rockies. Hawkins was a valuable setup man, and also filled in capably as closer when Parnell was injured. Omar Quintanilla started 89 games at shortstop for the Mets in 2013, but didn't field well enough to compensate for a .222 average and .589 OPS. 

Impact Rookies
Travis d'Arnaud has long been considered one of the top prospects in baseball and was the centerpiece of the haul the Mets received in exchange for R.A. Dickey. He'll be the starting catcher with every opportunity to lose the job, but needs to hit better than he showed during his late-season stint in the majors.

Another prospect the Mets received in the Dickey trade was pitcher Noah Syndergaard. He'll likely begin the season with Triple-A Las Vegas, unless the Mets prefer to keep him out of that hitter-friendly environment. But after compiling a 3.00 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 54 innings at Double-A Binghamton, perhaps he can make the jump to the majors. Rafael Montero could get that shot before Syndergaard, having pitched extremely well (3.05 ERA, 78 strikeouts in 88.2 innings) in Vegas last year. 

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Position Battles
First base should be the position to keep an eye on this spring. The Mets were hoping to break up a logjam by trading Ike Davis, but couldn't find any takers. So he'll fight for the first base job with Lucas Duda, unless a trade can be made during the spring. Neither player hits for a high average, but both have power. Josh Satin should also be in the mix, especially as a right-handed platoon. 

Who will be the setup man in the bullpen for Parnell? Kyle Farnsworth looks like the favorite for that role, but the Mets signed him to a minor league deal, which indicates that he's not viewed as entirely reliable. The best man for the job may be Vic Black, acquired in the trade that sent Marlon Byrd and John Buck to Pittsburgh last year. Black could be the bullpen's best strikeout arm, punching out 12 batters in 13 innings for the Mets

Center field could also be up for grabs during the spring. Juan Lagares is the favorite for the position, based on his outstanding defense. (Fangraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating may not be an accurate barometer, since Lagares didn't play a full season in center. But he was credited with 26 Defensive Runs Saved last year.) But manager Terry Collins may have to find a place for Eric Young Jr. if he believes Young can be the team's leadoff hitter. That could put Chris Young in center, with Eric Young playing left and Lagares in a reserve role. 

If Young Jr. can't break through in the outfield, he may have a shot at second base instead. Daniel Murphy is a far better hitter — probably the Mets' second-best behind David Wright — but that might make him a tradeable asset (along with his two remaining seasons under club control). Unless Young shows he can hit better and get on base far more often, trading Murphy might be too risky. 

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Injury Concerns
Unless (or until) the Mets sign Stephen Drew, Ruben Tejada will be the starting shortstop. But a quadriceps injury cost him his position in the middle of last season, and he ended the season on the disabled list due to a broken leg he suffered in an outfield collision. Freak injury or not, losing Tejada exposed the Mets' lack of depth at shortstop. 

Davis also had his season ended by injury, suffering an oblique strain in late August. He's had plenty of time to heal during the offseason, but if oblique issues linger, that could influence who wins the job at first base. Perhaps that could also convince the Mets to keep Duda and Satin on the roster for depth (maybe with Duda seeing some time in the outfield). 

Bobby Parnell's health could be an issue in light of him undergoing neck surgery in September. Could that affect his workload or his ability to pitch in back-to-back games early in the season. Farnsworth or Black could be insurance at closer, but if Parnell struggles, the Mets' inability (or refusal) to sign a potential backup may be regrettable. 

But the biggest health concern — especially because losing him would be the biggest blow to the Mets — is Wright. The third baseman suffered significant injuries in two of the past three seasons. Last year, core and hamstring injuries limited the Mets' captain to 112 games. In 2011, Wright appeared in only 102 games due to a stress fracture in his back. At 31 years old, the wear and tear of playing third base could result in more breakdowns during the season. Collins may have to rest Wright more frequently to prevent greater injury. 

Best Case
Can the Mets really contend in the NL East this season? It seems unlikely they can compete with the Nationals and Braves in the division. A wild-card bid doesn't look possible either, with the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks and the NL East runner-up fighting for those postseason spots. The Mets have finished with a 74-88 record for two consecutive seasons and it appears they'll finish with a similar record this year. Without Harvey, along with question marks at shortstop, catcher, first base and the bullpen, finishing at .500 or just above it would be impressive. But really, this year is about gearing up for 2015, when Harvey, Colon, Wheeler and Syndergaard give the Mets a strong rotation. 

Worst Case
Could the Mets actually take a step back? If Granderson can't at least equal Byrd's production, and neither Chris nor Eric Young hits well enough to stay in the lineup, the outfield could be worse than last year's edition. If Colon begins to show his age and regress, the rotation doesn't have a No. 1 guy and suddenly looks like a staff full of No. 3 and No. 4 starters (including Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lannan). A bullpen without a reliable reliever besides Parnell would only make matters worse. Battling the Marlins for last place would be a real possibility. 

Realistic Scenario
The Mets will probably compete with the Phillies for third place in the NL East. Philadelphia's pitching could ultimately provide the edge, but if the Mets get good production from the outfield, catcher and first base, their offense could push them into third place. Another 74-win finish appears likely, with anything approaching 80 wins viewed as a success for an admittedly short-handed team that needs its young pitching to develop and probably another offseason worth of work. 

About Ian Casselberry

Ian is a writer, editor, and podcaster. You can find his work at Awful Announcing and The Comeback. He's written for Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports, MLive, Bleacher Report, and SB Nation.

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