The Tigers were close to a second consecutive trip to the World Series, but couldn't overcome their subpar bullpen and a deep Red Sox lineup and relief corps. That led to rather significant changes, Manager Jim Leyland retired, Prince Fielder and Doug Fister were traded and more strikeout arms were added to the bullpen. Additionally, a lineup previously dependent on big home runs aspires to be more aggressive on the basepaths.
All of the moves make for a different Tigers team than the one we've seen over the past two seasons. There could be some developmental bumps along the way, especially with a first-time manager learning on the job and a rookie breaking in at third base. But the cornerstone pieces are still in place, which should keep the Tigers among the best teams in the AL this season.
Depth Chart (as of 3/7)
C: Alex Avila
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Ian Kinsler
3B: Nick Castellanos
SS: Jose Iglesias
LF: Rajai Davis
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: Torii Hunter
SP: Justin Verlander
SP: Max Scherzer
SP: Anibal Sanchez
SP: Rick Porcello
SP: Drew Smyly
CL: Joe Nathan
New Faces
An era certainly ended for the Tigers when Leyland announced his retirement after last season. Under his tenure, Detroit became a perennial AL contender. Putting a team with World Series aspirations in the hand of a first-time skipper seems to be a risk, but general manager Dave Dombrowski liked what he saw in Brad Ausmus, whose popularity had begun to grow among MLB executives. Ausmus had drawn interest from the Red Sox, Astros and Cubs before the Tigers snapped him up.
What sort of approach will Ausmus take in the dugout? Leyland's philosophies were more traditional, based on conventional wisdom and gut instincts. Ausmus will presumably be more modern, incorporating advanced data into lineup decisions and defensive alignments. But we don't yet know how he'll handle a bullpen (one of Detroit's question marks) or a media environment that Leyland became increasingly cranky with. Of course, having Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander on the roster will make Ausmus look smart on many days.
Dombrowski's offseason objective was to make the lineup faster and more athletic, less dependent on home runs. That began with acquiring Ian Kinsler from the Rangers. Even if Kinsler isn't capable of stealing 25 to 30 bases anymore, he should provide some aggressiveness on the basepaths. For pure speed purposes, Rajai Davis was signed to fill in at all three outfield positions. Davis looked set for a left field platoon with Andy Dirks, but with Dirks' back injury, he'll likely be the full-time left fielder and should have plenty of opportunity to steal 40-45 bases.
The Tigers also had to overhaul their bullpen, which finished 12th in the AL with a 4.01 ERA. But unlike last season, when closer was a question mark until Joaquin Benoit seized the role, Detroit will have no question as to who pitches the ninth inning. Joe Nathan gives the bullpen a proven, reliable closer, coming off two strong seasons with the Rangers. Dombrowski also took a chance on Joba Chamberlain, hoping the ol' change of scenery and pitching coach Jeff Jones can revitalize the former Yankee and turn him into a top-notch setup reliever.
Departures
After a postseason during which he hit .225 with a .561 OPS, no home runs and no RBI, Tigers fans turned on Prince Fielder and he was probably going to be a frequent punching bag this season had he returned. Trading the seven years and $168 million remaining on Fielder's contract looked impossible, but Dombrowski found a willing taker in the Rangers. That created payroll and lineup flexibility that allowed the Tigers to tinker with their roster. But how much will Detroit miss Fielder's power threat in the lineup? Will Cabrera be affected by Fielder no longer batting behind him?
Another departure that could hurt the Tigers' offense is Jhonny Peralta. However, he didn't really have a role on the team once Jose Iglesias was acquired in anticipation of Peralta's 50-game PED suspension. He was one of Detroit's best hitters in the postseason, batting .333 with an .898 OPS, four doubles and six RBI. But the Tigers had to play him in left field to get him in the lineup, and that wasn't going to work over a full season. Not to mention that Peralta's market value was far higher in free agency as a shortstop, as his four-year, $53 million deal with the Cardinals demonstrated.
The Tigers' most controversial offseason move was trading Fister to the Nationals for a seemingly underwhelming return of minor leaguer Robbie Ray, reliever Ian Krol and utilityman Steve Lombardozzi. During his three seasons in Detroit, Fister was one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball, according to WAR. Giving that up for a pitching prospect and two role players was a head-scratcher, especially considering the Tigers' bullpen issues and the Nats' surplus of relievers. With Drew Smyly on hand, Detroit could afford to trade a starting pitcher. But should Fister have been used to acquire more immediate help?
Letting Benoit go was also a bit curious. But with his success as a closer last season, he was looking for that kind of money on the free agent market and the Tigers had no interest in paying that. Benoit compiled a 2.01 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 67 innings, and eventually provided some stability in the ninth inning. But Detroit preferred an established closer instead, and opted for less expensive alternatives in building the setup crew behind Nathan.
Impact Rookies
Would the Tigers have traded Fielder and moved Cabrera back to first base if they didn't think top prospect Nick Castellanos was ready for the big leagues? We may never know. But it was time to give Castellanos a shot after putting up good numbers with Triple-A Toledo last season. The 22-year-old hit .276 with a .793 OPS, 37 doubles, 18 home runs and 76 RBI in 595 plate appearances. The Tigers also hope that moving Castellanos back to third base — his more natural position — rather than try to convert him into an outfielder will help his development.
A couple of relievers could also end up making contributions to the Detroit bullpen later in the season. The team thinks highly of Corey Knebel, a first-round draft pick last year. Knebel struck out 41 batters in 31 innings while posting an 0.86 ERA for Single-A West Michigan last season. He also pitched in the Arizona Fall League, racking up 11 strikeouts in 8.2 innings, though compiled a 4.15 ERA. Another rookie arm who could help out is Melvin Mercedes. He's not the strikeout guy Knebel is, but gets a lot of ground balls with his sinker. Last year, Mercedes compiled a 1.44 ERA at Double-A Erie.
Position Battles
The Tigers went into spring training with no competition for starting spots. But Dirks' back injury does create some wiggle room for an reserve outfielder. Don Kelly appears to be the favorite as the backup left fielder or possible left-handed platoon for Davis. Lombardozzi should also be in the mix, having played plenty of left field for the Nationals during the past two seasons. However, Ezequiel Carrera or Trevor Crowe could win a spot on the opening day roster with a strong spring.
Utility infielder is another role that could see some competition, depending on what happens with the outfield mix. Lombardozzi is likely to be the utilityman, especially if he shows he can play shortstop. If not, that creates a possible opening for Danny Worth, Hernan Perez or Eugenio Suarez. (Jose Iglesias' issues with shin splints could make the ability to play shortstop a priority.) That trio could also be alive for a roster spot if Lombardozzi ends up playing some left field.
Injury Concerns
Any catcher is probably considered an injury risk with the position's constant squatting, risk of home plate collisions and frequent battering by foul balls. However, Alex Avila seems particularly prone to taking foul ball deflections off his mask during the season. The Tigers' catcher suffered a concussion last season from such a blow, going on the seven-day disabled list as a result. Avila also sustained a knee injury due to a home plate collision during last year's ALCS.
Rules changes could help Avila avoid taking big hits at the plate, but those foul balls continue to be a concern. Detroit has a capable backup in Bryan Holaday and Ausmus will surely put him in at catcher for 50 or so games. Victor Martinez is also expected to see some time behind the plate when the Tigers play in National League parks during interleague play.
Best Case
Cabrera wins a third consecutive MVP award (beating out Mike Trout yet again) and contends for another Triple Crown. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer both have Cy Young Award-caliber seasons at the top of the Tigers' rotation, while Drew Smyly capably replaces Fister at the back end. Rick Porcello should also benefit from an improved infield defense. And in an ideal scenario, Nathan, Chamberlain and Bruce Rondon combine for a lockdown late-inning bullpen.
While the Tigers may score fewer than last year's 796 runs (ranking second in MLB), the emphasis on speed and aggressive baserunning could result in more scoring opportunities and fewer scoreless innings. Kinsler and Davis will play a major role in that, and perhaps Austin Jackson will find himself running more as well. This will be a different, less powerful Tigers lineup, but could be more fun to watch.
Worst Case
Martinez should do fine hitting behind Cabrera, likely fourth in the batting order. But he's not the power threat Fielder was. Could that affect what kinds of pitches Cabrera sees this season? Will opposing pitchers be a bit more willing to put Cabrera on base with Martinez less likely to launch the ball out of the park?
What if Castellanos struggles early in the season? The Tigers really have no viable backup plan at third base if that happens. Kelly and Lombardozzi would be likely to fill in, which would create a major hole in the lineup. That could also end up affecting the depth in the outfield, especially if Davis can't hit right-handed pitching as a full-time player.
The bullpen is also a big question mark besides Nathan. If Rondon once again shows he's not quite ready for the majors and Chamberlain continues to struggle with his location, the Tigers become extremely vulnerable in the middle-inning bridge between the starters and closer. This was a season-long problem for Detroit last season and threatens to be a significant concern yet again.
Realistic Scenario
Though the Tigers look less impressive with Fielder, Peralta and Fister now playing elsewhere, and the Indians and Royals presented themselves as viable competitors in the AL Central, this is still Detroit's division to lose. There's still plenty of talent here to finish in first place, contend for one of the best records in the league and compete for a World Series championship. (That window is closing, however.) The Tigers won 93 games last year, finishing just ahead of Cleveland. Winning that many games or a few more is entirely plausible.
