We end the free agent primer series with a look at possibly the most overpaid market in baseball today – relief pitchers. A top-tier reliever can make more money than a back-end starter, despite 70 innings a year being considered “a heavy workload”. This winter will be no exception, as there are some relievers out there that seem like they’re going to be getting a lot of money.
1. Andrew Miller. Why Miller instead of Robertson in the top spot? A few reasons – he’s a lefty, he won’t cost the signing team a draft pick, he’ll likely end up costing less, and he’s pure death to both lefties and righties. In 2014, Miller struck out 103 and walked just 17 in 62 1/3 innings. He allowed a .161/.206/.261 line to lefties, and a .142/.245/.202 line to righties. Needless to say, he’s fantastic.
2. David Robertson. Robertson is a great pitcher in his own right, but will cost his new club a draft pick and will likely command an eight figure salary. I’m not big on “closing experience” or whatever, but Robertson spent just one year as a closer for the Yankees, replacing Mariano Rivera in the ninth for the 2014 season. I do think there’s some Rafael Soriano potential here with Robertson, in that he starts out well but begins to struggle near the end of his contract.
3. Rafael Soriano. Soriano finished the 2014 season with a 3.19 ERA, 59 strikeouts, 19 walks, and 32 saves in 62 innings…but lost his job to Drew Storen after his second half spiraled out of control. Soriano should be in line for a multi-year deal this offseason, but won’t get anything close to the $14 million (half deferred) he made in each of the last two seasons. Based on how this market takes a downward turn after Miller and Robertson, his demand should pick up after Miller signs, given the draft pick compensation attached to Robertson.
4. Luke Gregerson. Gregerson has been steady as can be over his career, though his strikeout rate in 2014 was the second-lowest total of his career On the bright side, he also posted the lowest walk rate of his career and shut down lefties, something you didn’t see much from him in his career.
5. Pat Neshek. Neshek was one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season, striking out 68 and walking just nine in 67 1/3 innings with the Cardinals. However, he’s 34, and his great luck in the first half began to turn around in the second half. I don’t think Neshek is worth a multi-year deal, but he’ll probably end up getting one.
6. Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain gets a lot of grief for his ridiculous beard and shaky (to put it mildly) tenure with the Yankees, but he had a reasonably good year with the Tigers in 2014., striking out 59 and walking 24 in 63 innings. He made $2.5 million for the 2014 season, and I’d expect a similar salary in 2015.
7. Jose Veras. Veras had a disastrous half season with the Cubs in 2014, allowing 12 runs in 13 1/3 innings while walking 11. Then he went back to the Atros and pitched to a 3.03 ERA in 32 2/3 innings, punching out 37 and walking 16. There’s no chance that he makes as much as the $4 million he made in 2014, but half that for one year sounds reasonable.
8. Zach Duke. Duke was a failed fifth starter in his career until 2013, pitched reasonably well in relief for the Reds over 10 2/3 innings, and then dominated over 58 2/3 innings with the Brewers this season, striking out 74 and walking 17. I don’t think anyone will get a massive bargain with Duke like the Brewers did this past season, but if he can sustain this level of dominance n 2015, he could be in line for a multi-year contract next winter.
9. Neal Cotts. Cotts was fantastic for the Rangers in 2013, but came back to Earth in 2014. However, he still struck out nearly a batter per inning on the season. He turns 35 in March, so a multi-year deal seems out of the question, but I’d take a flyer on him while crossing my fingers that he’s able to regain his 2013 form.
10. Phil Coke. Coke was one of the most maligned members of Detroit’s bullpen this , but I think he’s been miscast in Detroit. Over his career, the guy has shown himself to be a shutdown pitcher against lefties…so why not sign him and put him in that role instead of trying to force him to be a three out pitcher? Used properly, Coke could be one of the best values of the winter for his new club.
