The outfield market this winter really lacks that guy to carry the class and get a nine figure deal this year – with the possible exception of Cuban Yasmani Tomas. Don’t get me wrong – there are several great players in this group, but none I’d feel comfortable giving more than four or five years to.
1. Yasmany Tomas. Tomas is the latest hot Cuban player on the market this winter, and he’s negotiating with suitors that will pay him to a ridiculous degree. He’s got prodigious power, and the presence of little high upside talent in this free agent class will ensure he gets paid handsomely.
2. Nelson Cruz. Even though Cruz is 34, has a Biogenesis suspension on his docket, and doesn’t have any defensive value, he’s seeking a four or five year deal – and he’ll probably get it from someone. After sitting out the end of 2013 because of that suspension, Cruz signed with the Orioles for one year this winter, and had an incredible season, smashing a career-high 40 homers in a career-high 678 plate appearances. There’s a significant chance that whoever inks Cruz will end up burned, but that appears to be a risk that a few teams aren’t afraid of.
3. Melky Cabrera. A disastrous 2010. A breakout 2011. An MVP-caliber 2012 ended by a PED suspension. A disappointing 2013 ended by a back tumor. A bounceback 2014. And thus goes the career of Melky Cabrera. Now that Cabrera is healthy and the PED stain has somewhat faded, he’s in line for the four or five year deal that he was targeting after 2012. Cabrera’s still only 30, and his 2014 hopefully quelled some doubts about his ability to produce more than one year at a time.
4. Nick Markakis. I’m doubting that Nick Markakis, who has been Mr. Oriole over the last decade, is going to head to greener pastures, especially after helping the team win their first division title since 1997 this season. But Baltimore has some pressing needs, and paying Markakis the salary he may command could be difficult while also improving the team. Interest in Markakis is also starting to pick up among other clubs, and there really is a chance that someone will give him an offer he can’t refuse At his peak, Markakis is a high-on base player with moderate pop, and though he turns 31 this week, there’s still plenty of value in a multi-year deal for him.
5. Torii Hunter. Even at 39, Hunter is drawing interest from several teams this winter. He put together yet another solid offensive season in 2014 despite a minuscule walk rate, and will probably get two more years from an interested team, despite his declining defensive skills in the corners.
6. Michael Morse. The book on Morse isn’t a secret – he can’t do much in the field, has incredible power, and is injury-prone to an absurd degree. He had a big Postseason for the Giants, and his regular season was a sterling rebound from a disappointing 2013 that was split between Seattle and Baltimore. I wouldn’t be jonesing to give him a multi-year deal, and wouldn’t want to play him at a position other than DH on a regular basis, but he has his uses.
7. Alex Rios. Rios is a guy that has been a 20/20 player twice in his career He’s stolen as many as 42 bases, and homered as many as 25 times. In 2014, at the age of 33, Rios homered just four times (playing in Texas, of all home parks) and stole only 17 bases. He also got on base at a .311 clip, the third-worst mark of his 11 year career. He’s also been prone to slumps like this, and that chance he’ll be able to bounce back is likely going to give him more money than he probably deserves.
8. Colby Rasmus. The 28-year old Rasmus has had an enigmatic career thusfar, and his 2014 featured both highs (18 homers in just 376 plate appearances) and lows (a 33.0% strikeout rate). I’m honestly not sure what to expect from Rasmus anymore. His first full year in Toronto was ugly, despite 23 homers. Then last year, he hit 22 homers in 458 plate appearances to go along with a .276/.338/.501 line…and then he fell back off the cliff in 2014. He’s either going to be an incredible bargain or a complete sunk cost – there’s no middle ground here.
9. Nori Aoki. Aoki came into the nation’s consciousness during the Postseason, and the 32-year old had a season very typical of what we expect of him in 2014. He’s stronger against lefties than righties, and given his age, he could be best used as a platoon player. However, he’s still a very solid option for a club that needs an outfielder, and will get a substantial raise on the low total of just under $4 million that he made over his first three years stateside.
10. Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick only played 150 games in his final two years in Cincinnati, and his fading defense growing age (36) makes the prospect of giving him an every day job daunting. But Ludwick should be able to find a part-time role in a platoon somewhere – he *did* hit .253/.324/.473 with four homers in just 103 plate appearances against southpaws this year.
