What are the Tigers thinking? That was the universal reaction to the Monday night deal that sent Doug Fister to the Nationals in exchange for a seemingly underwhelming package of reliever Ian Krol, Double-A pitcher Robbie Ray and utilityman Steve Lombardozzi.
If a team was in cost-cutting mode, this trade might make some sense. Fister is set for a significant raise through the arbitration process during the next two seasons. MLB Trade Rumors' Matt Swartz projects the right-hander to get nearly $7 million in 2014, a $3 million increase in salary. Some clubs just don't want to deal with that. It motivated the Rays' trading James Shields last year and will likely result in David Price being dealt this offseason.
But the Tigers aren't such a team. Detroit had a payroll near $150 million this past season and is in win-now mode with a roster that's showing some age and a window to World Series contention that is likely to be open for another year or two. Starting pitching was a strength of a 93-win club that won the AL Central and advanced to the ALCS for the third consecutive season. Why ditch one of those starters for what appears to be spare parts?
What has Tigers fans in an uproar and analysts throughout baseball scratching their heads with puzzlement is that it's difficult to see how this trade makes Detroit better. Perhaps Drew Smyly will fill Fister's spot in the rotation more than adequately, adding another strikeout arm to the Tigers' starting staff and a left-hander to complement a right-handed quartet. Smyly will certainly be cheaper, as he's not eligible for arbitration until 2015.
Yet Fister was tremendously underrated on a staff with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. However, the Tigers didn't trade a No. 4 starter here. He was the ninth-best starting pitcher in MLB during the past three seasons, according to FanGraphs' WAR. That's better than the Nats' trio of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, though Fister will probably slot in as the fourth or fifth starter in Washington too.
In a market where Ricky Nolasco gets $49 million, Jason Vargas receives $32 million and Phil Hughes signs for $24 million, how does a 29-year-old under club control for two more seasons (and perhaps $17 million) yield a reliever, minor leaguer and utilityman in return? How many other clubs in need of starting pitching might currently be thinking "Wow, we would've given up more than that"?
When SB Nation's Chris Cotillo initially broke news of the deal, the important detail was Fister going to the Nationals. It wasn't yet known who the Tigers would receive in exchange. Speculation immediately turned to the Nats' deep bullpen helping out a major need for Detroit. Drew Storen is a former closer who could possibly take that role or a setup job, and perhaps benefit from going to a new team. Tyler Clippard has been one of the best setup men in baseball during the past four seasons and would draw a similar salary to Fister's through arbitration.
Perhaps Adam LaRoche could fill the hole at first base and provide a left-handed power bat for Detroit's lineup after Prince Fielder was traded to the Rangers. Denard Span may have been the leadoff hitter that the Tigers need, either making Austin Jackson expendable or combining for an outstanding defensive outfield.
None of those players was going to Detroit in this deal, making it all the more baffling and disappointing. Krol fills a need for a strikeout left-hander in the Tigers' bullpen, likely taking Smyly's role. Lombardozzi becomes a younger utility infield option over Ramon Santiago and can also be a reserve outfielder. Detroit already has a similar player in Don Kelly, though Lombardozzi is arguably a better hitter and much younger.
However, general manager Dave Dombrowski apparently thinks highly of Ray, a 22-year-old left-hander. Though he was the Nationals' No. 5 prospect in Baseball America's view, Ray is the centerpiece of this deal for the Tigers. He gives their minor league system a top young arm it was lacking since Jacob Turner was traded to the Marlins two years ago in the swap that brought Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Detroit. Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks listed Jonathan Crawford — their 2013 first-round pick — as the Tigers' No. 1 pitching prospect prior to getting Ray. He surely becomes Detroit's best minor league arm now.
Making a trade for the future is a curious move for a team with the Tigers' current championship aspirations. The expectation for trading an established starter such as Fister was to address Detroit's concerns in left field, the bullpen (setup man and/or closer) and perhaps infield insurance if top prospect Nick Castellanos isn't considered ready to be the opening day starter at third base (or left field). Unimpressive as they might seem right now, Krol and Lombardozzi help two of those needs.
Yet Dombrowski's track record as Tigers GM suggests that this trade is the precursor to one or two moves to come as the offseason progresses. One reason this deal was so shocking is that Dombrowski rarely gets fleeced in a trade. Two weeks ago, he was being lauded (I was leading the cheers) for unloading Fielder and the $168 million remaining on his contract, despite a straight-up trade for Ian Kinsler looking like a mismatch in terms of talent. Did Dombrowski suddenly turn into a dummy? (The mouth-breathing contingent of Tigers internet commenters and sports-talk radio callers would use "Dumbrowski" here.)
Most understood that trading Fielder created payroll flexibility that would allow the Tigers to address those outfield and bullpen needs, as well as facilitate possible contract extensions for Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera. Does that apply to the Fister trade? Perhaps. Though his 2013 salary wouldn't have been outlandish by current market standards, it does open up more financial wiggle room to pursue a free agent like Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury, both of whom would be the outfielder and leadoff hitter the Tigers lineup needs. Such a move would obviously put any and all outrage over not getting an immediate impact player for Fister.
Maybe — just maybe — Dombrowski believes he's selling high on Fister after three strong seasons in Detroit. Maybe he was concerned about Fister's ERA and rate of hits allowed per nine innings increasing during that span. (Though better infield defense, led by Jose Iglesias, would likely help those numbers.) And if you're going to trade a player prior to free agency, he's worth a lot more with two years of club control than only one. Of course, we can argue over whether or not the Tigers got full value for Fister. Right now, it doesn't look like they did.
It's not much consolation — and probably a copout — to say "Let's wait and see what happens." Especially to Tigers fans who want a World Series and want it now. But if the Fielder trade shouldn't have been judged solely on its own merits, but rather on the other moves it enables, doesn't the Fister deal deserve that same benefit of the doubt? (Yes, Detroit fans were eager to get rid of the underperforming Fielder, but did it really make the Tigers better in terms of talent?)
If you believed Dombrowski was some kind of front office super-genius before he traded Fister, there's still plenty of opportunity for him to come out of this looking brilliant again. May we all agree to get back together and talk about this deal in January or February?