Ah, Reno. Yes, it's in Nevada and yes, you can gamble there, but Tahoe's only an hour away and it's got water and better snow sports. But what Tahoe makes up for in glitz and glamour, Reno takes the edge in having easy access to some very competitve sports books within a two block radius. And while things like win totals, World Series winners and home run champions take up the majority of bets for the upcoming season, I came up with some prop bets that I was hoping one of the books would take. Alas, none of them would do it, only leaving boring bets like Adam Jones vs. B.J. Upton for most combined HRs, RBIs and runs. That's nothing. Here are some bets to keep an eye on for 2013, with all of them following the same type of bet of which number will be higher than the other over the course of an entire season. I've also included my picks.
Carlos Peña's strikeout total vs. Carlos Peña's batting average (in percentage points)
We lead off with a bet that I deemed as the most hilarious I could come up with (your mileage will vary). As the bet shows, we're looking for the higher number Peña's time as even hitting .200 might be over, as the last three seasons, he's hit .196, then .225, but then .197. It should be noted that the .225 year came as a Cub in the National League in a much better hitter's ballpark than Tropicana Field. Going to the other park that has been named after an orange juice manufacturer might help things, but he's staying in the American League, and left-handed hitters don't hit as well there as right-handed hitters. Last year, he had 182 strikeouts to go with that .197 average, and part of me thinks that considering Peña is in the twilight of his career that a bet on strikeouts isn't that bad of a bet, even though it would definitely be the underdog, probably as much as +150. An easy pick for me here.
PICK: Peña's batting average
Mark Reynolds' home run total vs. Mark Reynolds' error total
Reynolds had the following comparables over the last five years:
2012: 23 HR vs. 11 E
2011: 37 HR vs. 31 E
2010: 32 HR vs. 18 E
2009: 44 HR vs. 24 E
2008: 28 HR vs. 35 E
He's averaged about 33 HRs and 24 E over the past five years and only the 2008 season is where the errors win out. He's also moving to first base primarily and might even see time at DH, but there's something funny about this bet to me. Errors would be a big time dog. Probably +200 or even more at this point, but Reynolds has an oven mitt for a fielding glove and even the larger version of that at first base might lead to him boot a couple here or there. But what I'm betting on is him not having the power surge people might be looking for this year. And if that's the case and he can't find his power stroke again, this prop has legs.
PICK: Reynolds' HR total
Miguel Cabrera's hit total vs. Stephen Strasburg's strikeout total
This one actually should be on a book somewhere and isn't something completely out of the blue. In what amounts to his first full season in the Major Leagues, Strasburg had 197 strikeouts in only 159 1/3 innings, as he was subject to the dreaded innings limit. Extrapolated over 200 innings and Strasburg would have 248 strikeouts if his 11.13 K/9 IP holds up in 2013. Cabrera had a career-high 205 hits in his Triple Crown Season of 2012 and is averaging 191 hits per year in his nine full seasons as a big leaguer. Gun to my head, I'd put Strasburg as a favorite but Cabrera would be a dog at only something like +130 or so. Strasburg would only need 165 1/3 innings at last year's rate to break Cabrera's number from last year, but Cabrera could go berzerk, too. If the leash is indeed off Strasburg and he's 100% healthy, I fear how high that number could go in favor of him.
PICK: Strasburg's strikeout total.
Mike Trout's on-base percentage or Houston's win percentage?
Absolutely fantastic comparison here: Trout is a bonafide superstar whose career is only starting and could reach areas that only a handful of players in Major League history have even sniffed before. The Houston Astros are Trout's antithesis from a team perspective, a 100-loss team that could be in the cellar of the AL West for years as they try and rebuild. If they were to lose 100 games in 2013, it would be a .383 winning percentage. Funny thing is that they are pegged for anywhere from 102-104 losses in a lot of the baseball futures betting, which would be anywhere in the .358 – .370 range. Trout was a .399 OBP guy in 2012, but some of the projection systems are not nearly as optimistic for his sophomore campaign. Fangraphs' ZiPS projection has him at only .364, thinking his batting average on balls in play will help bring down the batting average a bit, which would in turn bring down his on-base percentage. But even at that conservative estimate, it would be in line with the Astros losing 103 games. I really wish this goes up on a board somewhere. Trout's batting eye alone could make up for the batted ball luck he would be battling, and while it might not close a 35 point gap, there's a lot of factors in play for a pretty great bet. Trout should be a favorite, but Houston would only be about a +115 dog in my eyes. Probably the bet I'm most proud of. If you're feeling REALLY lucky, you could try and put up Trout's batting average instead, which would be larger odds on Trout's behalf and would make Houston a favorite.
PICK: Trout's on-base percentage
Andre Ethier's home run total or Carl Crawford's 2013 salary (in millions of $)
Finally, a Giants fan's dream bet for their money-spending rivals to the south. Crawford's contract was the subject of much scrutiny in last year's mega-trade with Boston, with Dodgers fans hoping he'd somehow come back and become the Crawford of old after returning from Tommy John surgery. He's set to make $20 million in 2013 (and every year through 2017 for that matter) and he'll need to start producing as he enters his Age 31 season. Across the outfield from Crawford will be Ethier, also entering his Age 31 season, who hit 20 homers in 2012, and himself being asked to produce a bit more to live up to a 5 year, $85 million extension that he was given last year (which also goes through 2017). This is basically an over/under bet for Ethier with the number being 20, and Ethier has hit 20 or more homers in four of the past five years, but I couldn't resist trying to get that printed on a betting ticket. Also in this case, if Ethier did hit 20 on the nose, it would be a push and you'd get your money back. Ethier would be a slight favorite with Crawford being a dog at probably +115 or +120. But for the first time with these bets, I'm taking an upset!
PICK: Crawford's salary
So there you have it, folks. Keep these in mind as fun ways to keep track of baseball throughout the year and here's to 2013 being another great one. These will be revisted at season's end and feel free to put some of your favorite props in the comments below!
