Can a baseball team ever have enough pitching? The general wisdom says no.
Yet the Atlanta Braves may end up facing a tough decision while attempting to answer that question over the next few weeks.
Right-hander Brandon Beachy is nearly ready to return to the Braves' starting rotation, approximately a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In four minor-league rehab starts, the 26-year-old has compiled a 2-0 record and 2.84 ERA while striking out 18 batters in 19 innings.
But Atlanta's rotation is already stocked with five starters, each of whom is pitching capably.
That presents manager Fredi Gonzalez and general manager Frank Wren with the proverbial nice problem to have. Is there enough room on the Braves roster for six starting pitchers?
If the answer is no, is the team then faced with the question of whether or not to trade one of its starters, either to patch a hole on the current roster or get possible help for the future?
Dealing away Paul Maholm or Tim Hudson looks like an obvious solution to the Braves' pitching surplus. Both pitchers are in the final year of their contracts, perhaps making them appealing to a team in need of pitching help that may not want to commit to anything long-term.
Hudson is owed what remains of his $9 million option for this season. He's also 37 years old. Perhaps most importantly, Hudson is also the one Braves starter who is arguably struggling, carrying a 4.48 ERA after 13 starts. He's been excellent in his past two appearances, allowing one earned run over 14.1 innings. He's also struck out nine batters and walked one during that span.
But might Hudson's contract and age prevent teams from offering much in a potential trade?
That could make Maholm the more attractive target. He'll cost less, with the remainder of his $6.5 million salary to be paid. The left-hander is also 31 years old. While Maholm isn't a flamethrower, a lefty who can change speeds and locate his pitches well could be a good fit for a contender such as the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers.
The Cincinnati Reds could also use a starting pitcher, but would the Braves really want to help a team they could face in the playoffs? Could a team on the fringes of contention, like the Kansas City Royals or Los Angeles Dodgers, be interested? Maybe a non-contender such as the Milwaukee Brewers or Seattle Mariners could also be a possibility.
Finding work for six starting pitchers is a quandary Gonzalez admits he hasn't figured out yet.
“I don’t know — that’s my honest-to-God answer,” Gonzalez told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's David O'Brien. “I don’t think there’s a clear-cut answer right now. And I don’t want to say, ‘Let’s see what happens,’ because people think, ‘Fredi’s hoping somebody gets hurt.’"
The idea that Gonzalez is wishing for an injury to clear up his roster jam is absurd, of course. But the Braves skipper might be hoping that his dilemma works itself out somehow, preferably without one of his pitchers going on the disabled list.
Barring an injury, however, the Braves will eventually have to get creative in accommodating all of their starting pitchers.
In the short term, having Beachy on hand will be helpful. Atlanta is scheduled to play a doubleheader with the New York Mets on June 18, and Beachy is targeted to start one of those games. That falls right in line with Beachy's pitching schedule, with his final rehab start coming this Thursday, June 13. Four days later, he'll be back in the majors.
After that, the scheduling won't work out quite so nicely for Atlanta.
During the last week of June, the Braves have two off days, pushing everyone in the starting five back a couple of times. That is, unless Gonzalez prefers to keep his pitchers on their normal schedule and skip two turns in the rotation. Atlanta also has one more off-day on July 1 before playing 13 consecutive games leading up to the All-Star break.
That gives Gonzalez an opportunity to rest a couple of arms that might be getting tired after pitching regularly for the past three months.
Perhaps the older Hudson could use a little breather to stay fresh for the second half of the season. Kris Medlen, who went from the bullpen to the rotation last year, might also benefit from a break as he increases his workload in two consecutive seasons.
However, keeping Beachy on his regular turn will likely be important, as he needs to stretch out his arm and build up his stamina. The hope is surely that the 26-year-old can soon regain the form that put him into early consideration for the National League Cy Young Award last year.
Prior to tearing the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Beachy had a 5-5 record that didn't look terribly impressive. But his 2.00 ERA was tops among NL starting pitchers. Naturally, we'll never know if he could have maintained that level of performance and competed with R.A. Dickey and Clayton Kershaw for Cy Young Award honors.
Leading the league in ERA certainly would have presented a strong argument. But Beachy was striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings, which may not have looked as impressive alongside Dickey and Kershaw. (As much as it might make some of us wince, Beachy's win-loss record would also have been a factor, had he stayed around .500.)
Hoping for Beachy to return to that level in his first season following Tommy John surgery is probably expecting too much. But that prior success surely indicates why the Braves are eager to put Beachy back in their starting rotation. Atlanta already has a seven-game lead over the Washington Nationals in the NL East. Pitching depth gives Atlanta yet another advantage over its division rival.
Yet a pitching surplus can become a shortage very quickly if injuries accumulate quickly. Even if the Braves could acquire a reliever in exchange for Hudson or Maholm, would they come to regret such a decision if one of their starting pitchers broke down later in the season?
Also, is it a good idea to depend on Beachy to stay in the rotation for the rest of the year? What if he encounters any sort of setback with his surgically repaired elbow? How much rest might he need later in the season?
Going with a six-man starting rotation might be the best short-term solution, just to help some pitchers occasionally rest a tired arm. But starters do need to maintain a regular schedule to stay sharp and strong. Giving them five days between appearances could mess with that routine.
But figuring out how to accommodate six starters, rather than trade one to make room for the conventional five, is probably in the Braves' best long-term interests. How many teams can say they enjoy such a luxury, especially with a seven-game lead in their division by mid-June? Why not take full advantage of that?
