Picking the Rookie of the Year is far and away the most difficult of any of the three major awards dished out in MLB. Last year, the winner in each league didn't even make the Opening Day roster for their respective club. The conensus pick among our staff is another guy who won't open the year on his team's Opening Day roster: Wil Myers of the Rays.
Myers is far and away the favorite to win the award this season. The savvy Rays are starting Myers in AAA to start the year due in part to a wrist injury that has slowed him down over the past week or so, but the general consensus is that he'll be up sooner rather than later. especially if Tampa Bay's offense struggles to start 2013. The 22-year old Myers is a monster that smashed 37 homers over AA and AAA in 2012 with the Royals along with walking at a 10% clip, and he's going to be a superstar in the majors. Tampa Bay hasn't had a homegrown, pure power hitting outfielder in their team history (unless you want to make the case for BJ Upton, who was more of a speed guy as opposed to a masher), and Myers could be one of the league's brightest stars going forward.
But aside from Myers, there are some other candidates that could make a push for the award in 2013. Red Sox top prospect Jackie Bradley Jr has forced his way into the discussion for a starting job on Opening Day after a spring that's seen him hit .444/.523/.667 in 24 games. Bradley has only played 61 games above high-A in his career, but the former Gamecock was expected to move quickly after being drafted 40th overall in 2011. But *this* quickly? David Ortiz is expected to start the year on the DL, which will open the door for Bradley to start in left field while Jonny Gomes DHs. If Bradley is hitting well when Ortiz returns, the rookie will have staked his claim to a job in the majors. Considering how frail Jacoby Ellsbury tends to be, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Bradley will spend most of the season in the majors even afer Ortiz returns.
Jurickson Profar is a guy who is definitely talented enough to play every day in the majors, but there's not an opening with the Rangers right now. With Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre both signed for at least the next three seasons, and Texas showing no desire to deal shortstop Elvis Andrus, Profar appears to be out of luck when it comes to an Opening Day roster spot, unless the Rangers want to stick him on the bench (which would help no one at all). But there is a possibility for Profar making an impact in the majors this year outside of injury, and that's at first base. Incumbent Mitch Moreland has been thoroughly mediocre in the majors over his career, and there were rumblings this winter about Kinsler potentially switching to the position. That talk eventually died down, and Texas remains committed to Moreland. But if he continues to be useless against lefties and mediocre against righties, the Rangers could opt to make the switch and bring up the highly-touted 20-year old, and shift Kinsler to first.
Orioles stud prospect Dylan Bundy is another guy getting a lot of love, but Bundy has a lot of factors working against him. First off, Baltimore is actually pretty deep in their rotation (shockingly enough), with their top four locked in and guys like Jake Arrieta, Jair Jurrjens, Steve Johnson, and Zach Britton all waiting in the wings in AAA in case of an injury (which seems inevitable). Secondly, the 20-year old Bundy will be starting the year in AA as opposed to AAA, and Baltimore probably doesn't want to rush the fourth overall pick from 2011. Thirdly, he might not even be the best ROY candidate in his own organization. Fellow fourth overall pick Kevin Gausman has opened some eyes this spring, and due to his background as a college starter and age (nearly two years older the Bundy), Baltimore could be more aggressive with the LSU product.
There's also a possibility that the Rookie of the Year might not be an elite prospect, but someone who just is guaranteed a job out of the spring. Jeremy Hellickson won the award in 2011 over a thoroughly mediocre class of players due in large part to his 189 innings pitched. Bobby Crosby won in 2004 thanks to a field that included a Japanese closer, two starters who didn't qualify for the ERA title, and a handful of hitters that didn't qualify for the batting title. There are a quartet of players that fit that mold this year: Aaron Hicks, Bruce Rondon, Brandon Maurer, and Leonys Martin.
Hicks is the latest player to come out of the Twins center field factory (following Denard Span and Ben Revere, both of whom were traded this offseason), and is a similar player to both, but with more pop. Last year in AA New Britain, Hicks hit 13 homers with 32 stealswhile also walking at a near 14% clip. This is a guy that could make a huge impact on Minnesota in 2013, especially defensively, but playing for a team that looks like a cellar dweller could hurt his mainstream perception.
Rondon has been a divisive figure this spring, but the 22-year old seems like he'll get most of the save opportunities in Detroit to start the year. Closers are seemingly the default choice for voters when there's not a top tier candidate in the field (see Andrew Bailey and Neftali Feliz winning in back to back years a couple of seasons ago), and Rondon could fit in that mold as well. However, if he doesn't get the saves, he's not going to get the award, and Tigers manager Jim Leyland probably won't screw around with the erratic fireballer.
Maurer, the sixth-best prospect in the Seattle organization, had a dominant spring and forced the Mariners to consider him for a rotation spot, which they've apparently given to him. In 20 innings this spring, the former 23rd-round pick has struck out 22 while walking six, posting a miniscule 0.90 ERA in the process. But Maurer is in the same scenario as Hicks, playing for a bad team that won't really be in the consciousness of the league for much of the season. Maurer also faces another issue in competition, as the Mariners are going with him over Erasmo Ramirez instead of (correctly) rolling with Maurer and Ramirez over the inferior Blake Beavan. If Maurer struggles and Beavan holds his own early on, his ROY bid could be over sooner rather than later.
Finally, there's another Ranger that appears to have a job in Leonys Martin, the team's center fielder. The 25-year old Cuban is still fighting Craig Gentry for playing time, but Texas would be silly if they didn't at least see what they have with Martin on a full-time basis after he obliterated AAA in 55 games a year ago. He struggled in brief tenures in the majors in 2012, but is just 25 and is going to be making his millions whether or not he's in the majors or minors.
Despite Myers being the favorite, the field is wide open for the AL Rookie of the Year award this spring. Hell, someone I didn't even mention might come out of nowhere to take the world by storm and become the next big superstar. It'll definitely be a fun race to watch this season.
