I have no idea how Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, Baseball America, and the many other prospect gurus do it. How do you possibly put all these players in order? How do you compare hitters with pitchers? How do you compare first baseman to outfielders across the minor-league spectrum? It’s a monumental task that requires a lot of parsing, and it’s parsing that I, ultimately, think is pointless. This is one of the main reasons I used the tier system and eschewed numbering altogether. Once you put them into tiers (presuming I put them into the right ones, which is probably equally dangerous), the differences between the players become even more minute than they already were. Therefore, what follows today, Thursday, and Friday is not your typical Top 100. Today is essentially prospects 62-100, all of whom are the best in the “Good” tier, but you won’t see them put in order that way. I have, instead, put them in order by position. This, I hope, is more helpful. “Good” prospects are players that I think could be solid regulars but should be reserves or relievers at worst, though there obviously remains a chance for them to never make the majors. The comments next to the players are not scouting reports, per se, but reasons for why I put one above the other within their position. If you want the longer, more detailed report, go here and find the player’s team. Let’s get to it.
Catchers
Ryan Lavarnway (BOS): While Lavarnway is not the best catcher in the world, Saltalamacchia isn’t either, and Lavarnway could be a much better hitter. Let him catch most of the days, DH others, and give Adrian Gonzalez a day or two off.
Blake Swihart (BOS): The top catcher in the recent draft, Swihart has a ton of athleticism and an excellent bat. The bat could be good enough to make Boston want to move him off the position, but considering their logjam at third (that’s a position he played in high school), that may not be in the cards.
First Basemen
CJ Cron (LAA): Cron has plus to plus-plus power, and he has a solid hit tool and approach. I don’t expect him to be in the minors long, and the main concern now is his shoulder holding up.
Jonathan Singleton (HOU): Singleton has the pure hitting skills, but I’m not convinced the power will show up in huge numbers.
Second Basemen
Kolten Wong (STL): Wong is the only second baseman in the tier, but I would have put him as one of the top 2 or 3 prospects in the entire tier.
Third Basemen
Will Middlebrooks (BOS): There isn’t a whole lot of difference between Middlebrooks and Olt, but Middlebrooks is only a month older, has performed in higher levels, and has the same amount of talent.
Cheslor Cuthbert (KC): Cuthbert didn’t have a great, great season in A-ball, but he’s shown plenty of tools and played the year as the equivalent of a high school senior.
Jonathan Schoop (BAL): Schoop performed at a level a touch higher than Cuthbert, but he’s a year older and wasn’t very impressive at that level.
Mike Olt (TEX): Olt performed very well at age 22 in High-A, but we would expect that from a college signee. That being said, he’s still pretty talented.
Garin Cecchini (BOS): All of the third basemen in this tier are very close because they’re all near the same age and level. Cecchini is a bit older (will be 21 in April) and has only played 32 games on Low-A. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up the best of this group.
Shortstops
Javier Baez (CHC): Baez was probably the best prep hitter in the 2011 class, but there are concerns he may not be a shortstop much longer.
Billy Hamilton (CIN): One hundred stolen bases tells you all you need to know about Hamilton. He’s fast, blindingly fast. The question now is whether he can hit enough.
Corner Outfielders
Josh Bell (PIT): Out of all the corner outfielders here, Bell has the most potential of all of them. He has massive power and the ability to hit from both sides of the plate, but he is, of course, a long way away.
Robbie Grossman (PIT): Grossman made prospect headlines with a sterling repeat of High-A and a strong showing in the AFL. It was a repeat and mainly a lot of OBP love, but he was only 21 and that was a legit performance and improvement.
Marcell Ozuna (MIA): Ozuna is basically a year behind Grossman in both age and level and has more power. But he doesn’t have the pure hitting ability, which may hurt him as he moves up.
Joe Benson (MIN): As a 23-year old in AA, Benson raked, but the strikeout issues are a serious concern. He also has the lowest ceiling of the group.
Center Fielders
Brett Jackson (CHC): At age 22, he performed well in AAA, but he has BIG strikeout issues (64 in 48 games). But that was the first time it was that bad, and he has solid secondary offensive skills.
Rymer Liriano (SD): Liriano really came on with a dominating A-ball performance at age 20 and made many a scout go ape over him. He basically has plus tools across the board, but there are some who think he’ll need to move to a corner as he fills out.
Brandon Nimmo (NYM): Nimmo gets a lot of Mike Trout comparisons because of his high ceiling, across-the-board tools, and questionable competition in high school, but Mike Trout is a lot to hope for. Nimmo’s good, and let’s just leave it there.
Aaron Hicks (MIN): Hicks still oozes tools, and if he can get a bit more aggressive and drive the ball more, he’ll shoot to the very top of the rankings.
Eddie Rosario (MIN): Rosario put up monster numbers in Rookie ball, but that was Rookie ball.
Pitchers
Drew Hutchison (TOR): Hutchison really sent his stock soaring with an excellent 2011. He’s only 20 and should start 2012 in AA.
Wily Peralta (MIL): Peralta’s ceiling is higher than Hutchison’s, but his control wavers a little too much at times.
Alex Meyer (WAS): Meyer has the highest ceiling in this group other than maybe Heredia, but he’s way more polished than Heredia, which tells you how raw Heredia is. Meyer made some improvements this season, and a dominating 2012 could shoot him up the charts.
Luis Heredia (PIT): Heredia will be 17 in 2012, and he’ll likely get another chance at Rookie ball or maybe a Low-A assignment. He has an ace ceiling, but goodness knows he’s a ways away from reaching it.
Chad Bettis (COL): Bettis wasn’t exactly young at 22 in High-A, but he was dominating and made the improvements scouts wanted to see from him. I’ve heard reports about moving him to the bullpen, but if that’s anything more than a short-term playoff move, then it’s a mistake.
Jarred Cosart (HOU): With one of the better fastballs on the list, Cosart has front-of-the-rotation stuff, but man, that control really goes in-and-out.
Robbie Erlin (SD): Erlin’s stuff won’t exactly wow you, but it’s all average or better and plays up due to plus to plus-plus control. Pitching in Petco can only help.
Jenrry Mejia (NYM): Mejia’s a year younger than Betances and is probably a better bet to remain in the rotation, even considering the Tommy John surgery.
Dellin Betances (NYY): Betances’ control can really get out of hand, but he’ll only be 24 next season in AAA and has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter. There’s just also a decent chance he ends up in the bullpen.
John Lamb (KC): Lamb has excellent stuff and control, but it ticked down in 2011 before needing Tommy John. Was the diminished stuff because of something wrong in the elbow, or was it down regardless?
Casey Kelly (SD): Kelly has always carried a lot of expectations on his shoulders, and he hasn’t exactly lived up to it. But he only just turned 22, has focused on pitching-only for 3 years, and has still performed well in AA.
Jose Fernandez (MIA): Fernandez and Stephenson have front-of-the-rotation stuff but are a long way away.
Robert Stephenson (CIN): Stephenson and Fernandez have front-of-the-rotation stuff but are a long way away.
Jed Bradley (MIL): Bradley was drafted before the two guys just above him on the list, and while he is a bit more polished, his ceiling is lower and he still needs a third pitch.
Nestor Molina (CHW): Molina has plus-plus command of his fastball, but his secondary pitches lag much farther behind. He hasn’t been a pitcher for long, so we’ll calm down about the lack of secondary pitches and focus on the positives.
Drew Smyly (DET): The big knock on Smyly is his lack of upside, but he laid waste to High-A and AA in his first season.
Chris Reed (LAD): Reed could speed through the Dodgers’ system as a reliever, but they are making the right decision by putting him in the rotation. Number 2 starter potential if everything goes right, but I think there’s a good chance of him getting to at least a 3/4.
Taylor Jungmann (MIL): Jungmann was the first choice of the Brewers and before Bradley, but while he has some pretty good stuff, that is one ugly delivery.
