From my season preview of the Blue Jays earlier this morning…
Burning Question
Everyone knows about the talent that Colby Rasmus possesses, but he was pretty awful after coming over from the Cardinals last July. Is this going to be the year where he finally turns into a superstar?
Ramsus’s first two years with the Cardinals were prtty damn good. He OPSed .714 as a 22 year old rookie in 2009, and improved that to .859 in 2010, with a total fWAR of 4.3.
But last year was a disaster from all aspects. While with the Cardinals, Rasmus had a pedestrian .752 OPS. He was dealt to the Blue Jays at the end of July, and the wheels completely fell off. His OPS fell down to .517, highlighted by his walk rate getting chopped down from 11.7% to just 3.6%. His strikeout rate also increased from 19.9% to 27.9%. Of course, his overall struggles were fueled by a .217 BABIP in addition to his awful walk and strikeout rates.
Where does that leave Rasmus in 2012? It’s clearly too early to give up on the 25 year-old. The major projection metrics around (which I don’t put a TON of stock in) have him in the same general range, with an OPS between .740 and .775. Remember, Rasmus only spent three seasons in the minors, and in his last year there (2008), he had a .742 OPS in AAA. Of course, the year before, he had a .932 OPS in AA.
There is still a ton of potential with Rasmus. But if he doesn’t make strides in 2012, the whispers are going to grow louder, and people are going to start to wonder if Rasmus will ever reach his superstar potential.
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