A report out of ESPN today is suggesting that the Mets are looking to hang on to Jose Reyes. The team has already traded Francisco Rodriguez and we’ve talked on this site last week about how the team should sell off its assets now, and buy in the offseason. But after reading this article, the prevailing logic in New York is that the team is “playing better lately”, and wants to hang onto Reyes in hopes of a late run.
Let me just shoot this whole “the team is playing better lately” thing in the foot right now. In June and July, the Mets are a combined 23-19. That’s four games above .500, not really a great. Over the past two months, while the team is playing better, they’ve actually lost ground in the NL East, as the Braves (27-14) and Phillies (26-15) have been playing some damn good baseball. The Mets are 12 back of the Phillies in the East, and 8.5 back in the wild card behind the Braves, with three teams between them and the wild card leaders. It would take a Rocktober-type run for the Mets to reach the playoffs right now, especially as the Braves and Phillies continue to play great baseball.
Another thing to take into account is the impending trade of Carlos Beltran. He’s playing at an extraordinarily high level this season. Beltran has been worth 3.8 WAR this year with a .912 OPS, and great defense in right field. There are plenty of teams interested in him, and he will more than likely be moved. The Mets are willing to eat more of his contract if they’re able to get more of an impact back in the trade. When Beltran was traded from Kansas City to Houston in June of 2004, he was an elite player, albeit a much younger one. His value has grown a little dimmer with age, but the Mets should be able to get a decent haul in return. The package the Royals got for Beltran was less than stellar, though they did get two regular starters out of the deal in John Buck and Mark Teahen. Two regulars for an MVP candidate doesn’t seem like a great return at the end of the day, but this is the Royals we’re dealing with here. The Mets should try to look to get at least one regular position player, and one impact arm in a deal for Beltran. They’ve got the best chip on the trade market, and they should cash it in for the most value they have.
Hell, when you look at the fact that the Mets also have Reyes, they’ve got the best TWO trade chips on the market. There is no worse place to be for a baseball team than struggling around the .500 mark in the middle of July. One winning streak, and you’re buyers. One losing streak, and you’re sellers. The smart move to do in this situation is to sell off your best assets to try to improve the club for both the near and far future. What good would Reyes as a Met for the final two months of the year do if the team doesn’t have the money to re-sign him? It would do no good at all, except maybe give the team 84 wins in a division where 95 looks likely for each of the top two teams.
In summary: they need to trade everything that isn’t nailed down. This isn’t the NL Central, where being five games above .500 means you’re a couple of bounces from first place. The Tampa Bay Rays are drifting into the same boat as the Mets as well, and they also should look at exploring trading away some assets. But as for the Mets? It’s time to start over.
