The Yankees might have the postseason’s best pitcher on their side.
That might seem like a bold statement given the Cy Young caliber arms slated to toe the rubber in October, Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay being among them. But CC Sabathia may have been just as good, if not better, than both in the regular season.
Consider circumstances for a moment. First off, Halladay pitches in the National League, so he already has an advantage over Sabathia in terms of quality of opponents faced.
Results below are listed by name, quality of opponents by OPS and pitching park factor
Quality of opponents OPS is the average OPS of all the opponents faced by the pitcher during the season. Pitching park factor is basically the advantage of disadvantage given to the pitcher based on the ballparks he has pitched in during the season. 100 is neutral while anything above means that there was a slight disadvantage due to ballpark factors.
Name – Quaility Opp OPS – PPF
CC Sabathia – .760 – 102
Justin Verlander – .739 – 100
Roy Halladay – .743 – 101
We can take this one step further using Baseball Prospectus’ latest statistical innovation called Quality of opponents based on RPA+. You can read more about the stat here, but basically it takes into account more factors than just OPS, which isn’t a tell-all stat in terms of the quality of a hitter.
Name – Quaity Opp RPA+
CC Sabathia – 115
Justin Verlander – 108
Roy Halladay – 106
Sabathia pitches in the AL East where, if we were to have the additional Wild Card in place for this season, three playoff teams would have emerged. As you can see from the numbers above, and by general knowledge of the strength of the divisions and or leagues, Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay had “easier” roads to put up the numbers they did this season.
Also, out of those three pitchers, Sabathia had the highest BABIP against.
As for their ALDS matchup: Sabathia faced the Tigers twice this season and posted a 4.50 ERA with a .400 BABIP. Justin Verlander faced the Yankees twice this season and posted a 4.50 ERA with a .370 BABIP.
The rest of the rotation certainly has its question marks. They hope to ride the hot streak of young Ivan Nova, who went 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA, which included a 2.67 ERA in September and seven straight wins from July 30th through September 2nd. Wins, however, are not a great way to judge a pitcher’s skill level. Nova does one thing particularly well, which is generate ground balls. He has done so at a rate of about 53 percent this season. That however, is his only standout skill, as both his strikeout and walk rates are below average – the league average K/BB rate in 2011 was 2.3, Nova ended at 1.7. That explains, in part, why his ERA is a bit lower than his less impressive 4.16 xFIP.
One more thing about that ground-ball rate: According to FanGraphs, the Tigers had the lowest team ground-ball rate in baseball this season.
The Yanks will then send crafty veteran Feddy Garcia to the mound in game three. Garcia, who in his heyday could crank the heat up to 93-plus, now lives in the upper 80s, throwing mostly changeups, sliders, curveballs and cutters. That approach, however, has worked brilliantly at times this season, ultimately resulting in a 3.62 ERA. On the negative side, Garcia has pitched poorly in three of his last four regular season outings.
Joe Girardi was wise to tab Garcia to start game three, which will be in Detroit, as Garcia is a fly-ball pitcher who posted a 4.45 FIP at home and 3.78 FIP on the road this season.
Sabathia and Nova should be able to come back and pitch games four and five if necessary, which leaves the Yanks with some needed depth in the bullpen. Both Phil Hughes and Bartolo Colon have ample experience working out of the pen and will help bridge the gap to David Robertson and Mariano Rivera.
The question marks in the Yankees rotation, other than Sabathia of course, are certainly a cause for concern, but the offense has a chance to do some special things in October.
The Yankees narrowly missed overcoming the Red Sox for the most runs scored in baseball this season, but they did lead all of the major leagues in home runs with 222. They were second in the American League in OBP (.343), third in SLG (.444) and third in wOBA (.346). The only playoff team to top them in any of those categories was the Rangers (the other was the Red Sox). While the ball seemed to constantly be flying out of the yard when the Yanks were at bat, that’s not all they did well on the offensive side: They ranked third in the American League in team stolen bases with 147.
Say what you will about defensive metrics, I for one believe there is plenty of room for improvement, but they are certainly better than using fielding percentage as a way to gauge defensive value. With that in mind, the Yankees ranked fifth in the American League in team UZR. Brett Gardner was a huge part of that. He’s basically a centerfielder in left, with unbelievable range.
All in all, the Yankees are a very dangerous team heading into the playoffs. Outside of Sabathia, their starting pitching may not look frightening, but one could have – and some probably did – made that argument all season long. The bottom line is that if they struggle on the mound in any given game, they still have an offense capable of putting up quick damage against even the best pitchers in baseball. With David Robertson and Mariano Rivera at the back end of the bullpen, any lead after seven innings could very well equal victory.
The Yankees have a good chance to get back to the World Series and win it all in 2011.
