This one isn’t that surprising, given that the Phillies telegraphed it before the season. They were going to challenge opposing teams in the playoffs by saying “here are four aces – go ahead and try to beat them multiple times”. That ended up being a strong regular season strategy too – the Phillies won the most games in baseball (102) – but being able to completely forego their back end of the rotation makes things even more ridiculous. Check out these pitching match-ups:
Game 1: Kyle Lohse vs. Roy Halladay
Halladay versus anyone is going to be in Philadelphia’s favor, really, since Doc is probably the best pitcher in baseball. He’s had a great career, but 2011 might have been his best year yet; a 2.35 ERA; a career best strike-out rate of 8.5 K/9; and he never walked anyone and kept the ball in the park, as usual. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 2.20 was his best ever, and easily the lowest in the majors. Beating Halladay once is going to be tough, and doing so twice is very unlikely.
Game 2: Chris Carpenter vs. Cliff Lee
If Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, Cliff Lee has a real claim on the #2 spot; 2.40 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 9.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9. The Cardinals are throwing their ace out there, and he’s pretty clearly outclassed by the Phillies second best starter – that just isn’t fair.
Game 3: Jamie Garcia vs. Cole Hamels
Hamels started out the year on a tear, but fell off a bit later on. Still, his numbers were mighty impressive; 2.79 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. Garcia is a good pitcher, but Hamels is just, well, better. Hamels vs. Carpenter actually seems like a fair match-up – and that’s St. Louis’ #1 guy versus the Phillies #3.
Game 4: Edwin Jackson vs. Roy Oswalt
Oswalt missed some time this year and is on the decline, but he’s still one of the better pitchers in baseball when he’s on the mound; 3.69 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 6.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 (and he was better later in the year). Oswalt matching up against the opponent’s top one or two starters is probably going to put the Phillies behind, but against their three or four guys, there’s a good chance it’ll be a blow-out in their favor.
So in a five game series, your easiest match-up involves beating a pitcher with a career record of 159-93 and a 3.21 ERA. Then, if you manage that, you also need to play .500 ball against Halladay, Lee, and Hamels (combined career record of 381-215). Going by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the best pitcher in baseball over the last four years has been Roy Halladay. The second best pitcher in baseball has been Cliff Lee. #15 is Cole Hamels. And #20 is Roy Oswalt. There are 30 teams, mind you, so #20 is pretty high up there. And that’s the “gimme” game.
There is some repetition above but, well, it’s pretty amazing. There’s a real chance that the Phillies could sweep a series while not allowing an earned run. The rotation was the best in baseball, by a fair bit:
ERA: 2.86 (first by almost half a run)
FIP: 2.98 (first by almost half a run)
xFIP: 3.17 (first by almost half a run)
K/9: 7.9 (first)
BB/9: 1.9 (first by almost half a walk per game)
Complete Games: 18 (first, by 3)
Shutouts: 7 (tied for first)
Innings Pitched: 1,064 (first)
fWAR: 25.8 (first by over 5 wins – that is, take out Hamels and they’re still 1st)
brWAR: 25.1 (first by, it looks like, more than 7 wins)
That’s pretty good, yeah. The Phillies aren’t half bad on the other side of the ball either though. The offense hit a below average .253/.323/.395 this year, but that was with Chase Utley (.259/.344/.425) missing time and only getting a partial season out of Hunter Pence (.329/.394/.560 since coming over). Since the beginning of July, they’ve actually at a slightly above average clip. If the Phillies’ batters can regularly put ~4-5 runs on the board throughout the playoffs, it’s going to be very tough for opponents to beat them with the consistency required to take a series.
It was expected that the great starting pitching would make the Phillies successful during the regular season, and so it did. It’s expected that it’ll also make them successful during the playoffs, but we’ll need to wait to see how it plays out. The odds look like they’re in Philadelphia’s favor, but if Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt lose 3 out of 5 games it’s not like it’ll be the first such stretch for them in 2011 (by my count, it’s happened twice before – losing 4 of 7 only happened once, at the end of September when the Phillies lost 8 games in a row).
