Two Bay Area pitchers made their returns to the pitching mound this week from injury. One had just made his first trip to the DL in his storied career while the other…well, the other made a return from the DL for what seems like the 45th time in his. So what lies in store for Barry Zito and Rich Harden? And more importantly for both teams, who will have the better season?
Zito has obviously been in a downward spiral since signing the largest contract in San Francisco Giants history, but there is still hope for optimism that he can be a contributer for the defending World Champions. Not that he has much of a leg to stand on nowadays, but there is the immeasurable experience of a minor league rehab assignment (his first ever) that might get an idea in his head of what needed to be changed.
In his first start back, he had a quality start and really made only one big mistake in a two-run homer to the light-hitting Lou Montanez on a hanging curve ball as the Giants won 6-2. His final line of 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 3 K paint a strong picture of what Zito is: A pitcher whose stuff won’t get too many hitters swinging and missing, but instead relying on mixing speed and location to keep hitters off balance and not making solid contact. In a night game at Wrigley Field against a mostly right-handed hitting line-up, Zito did exactly that and was able to go the full seven.
For Harden, he had a start along the lines of what is expected of him: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. The walk total is probably the one stat that stands out most, as is the 47 strikes he threw in 76 pitches (61.8% strikes). It means that Harden had his control to go along with the power stuff that makes him so exciting to watch. Harden was brought in on a flyer to help solidify a young pitching staff in the back of the rotation, but the move was odd given his injury problems. Obviously, Billy Beane made the move because like most of his other similar moves, it involved taking on a proven commodity at a low cost and hoping he came through. While he isn’t Frank Thomas, Harden still has some time to prove that perhaps this latest setback has allowed him some time to prove he can stick at the Major League level without injury?
First, we think about what would make it a “better season” for either pitcher. WAR is a good start, obviously, but looking at the environments in which they pitch in and what type of pitchers they are tell a better story of what to expect.
Both pitchers pitch in similar pitcher-friendly environments, with AT&T Park playing at a 3-year park factor of 98 per Baseball Prospectus and the Overstock.com Coliseum somehow playing under that at 95. While AT&T plays more neutral, it still obviously stifles offense, and with the Giants offense being that bad, the pitching gets a boost playing in that environment and is obviously the star of the show. Meanwhile, Oakland’s park is played on the largest patch of grass in baseball, making it a flyball pitching haven.
While the stuff for both pitchers are on polar opposites of the spectrum, both pitchers favor the fly ball with Harden having a .90 GB/FB ratio and Zito having a more extreme .71 ratio. Obviously, Harden’s number is higher due to his strikeout rate (9.1 per 9 IP, whereas Zito is at a paltry 6.7) Luckily, due to the spacious outfields in their respective parks, they can get away with those fly ball rates. Even though both pitchers give up their share of gopher balls, Harden’s stuff will allow him to keep less fly balls from having a chance at leaving the yard via the swing and miss.
Another factor that has to come into play here is health. Harden has had injury after injury piling up in his career. At only 29, he’s made more than 25 starts only 3 times in his eight seasons. Meanwhile, Zito has pitched 180+ innings with 32 or more starts in all but his rookie season. He’s collected 33.2 WAR by Baseball Reference standards whereas Harden has collected only 15.5. Overpriced as Zito has been, he has been a poster boy for consistency of health. Harden has to prove that his injuries are behind him this time around, especially when a contract is on the line. The A’s do have plenty of pitching that would return in 2012, but if Harden has a strong second half, the incentive for another pay day might force him to go all out and might force Beane into a tough situation come arbitration-offering time.
Zito, on the other hand, is in a very different situation. Whereas Harden is much needed due to all the injuries that have saddled the A’s starting rotation, the Giants are rolling primarily due to theirs, with Ryan Vogelsong having the best season of his career at age 33 and giving Zito a run for his money in the starting rotation. Currently, Jonathan Sanchez is on the DL with a bicep issue, meaning that the Giants have some time to figure out what to do with their current pitching connundrum. However, the talk of the organization before Sanchez went to the DL was that Vogelsong was going to get his starts regardless of Zito’s return, meaning Zito would get to sit in the bullpen for the time being. That does not mean that Zito would be without incentive himself. It wouldn’t be for the money Harden would be looking for, but it would be to prove that he can break that rotation.
It will be interesting to see what the Giants do from here. With the Kansas City Royals deciding to go with a six man rotation (to make room for, as Joe Posnanski is quick to point out, the worst starting pitcher with at least 120 starts in the history of MLB, Kyle Davies) the Giants might seek that strategy out if they decide not to make a move in the trade market. Whereas teams like the Royals and White Sox are doing it just to spice up teams that are heading nowhere for the time being, the Giants actually have a chance to make a six-man rotation work, and might be pressed into doing so to make sure everyone gets their fair shake.
One suggestion has been to trade Sanchez, but considering his current DL stint and control problems, the Giants would be hard pressed to find a suitor for a pitcher whose career is starting to go down the Oliver Perez path of wildness and inconsistency, mixing shades of brilliance with utter disdain for even slight improvements. The pipe dream of Giants fans packaging Sanchez in a deal for Jose Reyes is exactly that, and with the way the Giants offense has been playing, adding another competent MLB arm to an already loaded rotation might help keep the offensive woes at bay for the time being.
If hard pressed, I think Harden has the better year statistically. I think that all his time off has truly given him a chance to heal, and both Beane and Bob Melvin understand how to treat someone like Harden who needs to be handled with care. As long as Zito is pitching in flyball friendly environments, he’ll be just fine, but with him being in a logjam of a rotation, I don’t see him getting as many chances to succeed as Harden will, who will basically have carte blanche as the A’s look to find anyone with a decent arm to pitch every fifth day. I will go out on a limb and predict a 2.0 WAR for Harden while Zito hovers around a 1.5. Both will contribute, but neither will set the world on fire.
