The winner of the AL Central could do something that I can’t remember seeing in awhile: make the playoffs with a negative run differential. Right now, the Tigers are up two games on the Indians and are at -17 on the season. Cleveland is at +2, and the third place White Sox, who are 3.5 out, are at -12. That got me to wondering. Has any team this decade made the playoffs with a negative run differential?
The 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks not only won their division, but also had the best record in the National League, with a 90-72 record and a -20 run differential. This team was a very motley bunch, as the highest OPS+ on the team was 109, a number that corner infielders Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds had. Four of their starting hitters were below 100 (which means that they were below average). This team prety much did it through pitching, led by Brandon Webb and his 3.01 ERA. They also had a dominant bullpen, led by closer Jose Valverde (hey look, a 2011 Tiger!). It’s odd that a team that played their home games in the hitter’s paradise that is Chase Field would have problems putting runs on the board, but here we are.
Staying in the NL West, the 2005 San Diego Padres weren’t a very good team, and won the division with an 82-80 record and a -42 differential, which was actually best in the division. Petco Park completely stifled their offense, as they only scored 684 runs on the season. The entire infield had an OPS+ under 100, while the whole outfield was above, led by Brian Giles and his 146 OPS+ and .905 OPS. The starting pitching was terrible, carried by Jake Peavy and his 2.88 ERA. The bullpen was terrific, thanks to another great year from Trevor Hoffman. Scott Linebrink and Rudy Seanez combined to win 15 games in relief. That’s pretty crazy. This wasn’t a playoff team, but since the rest of the division was so bad, they earned the berth.
And that’s it. The only two teams over the past decade to finish with a negative run differential and make the playoffs. Ironically, both are NL West teams. That makes the struggles of the teams in the AL Central a little more odd, since the division has usually had a dominant force throughout the years. Oddly, the NL West could have a third team accomplish this feat this season, as the defending champion Giants are 2.5 out and a -9 on the year.
What separates this Tigers team from the prior two teams to do this? The Tigers have five stud offensive players in Alex Avila, Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Cabrera, and Brennan Boesch. They’ve also got some terrible ones that were getting starts, but took care of that with the trades for Wilson Betemit and Delmon Young. As for the pitching staff? That hasn’t been a strength at all, unlike the other two teams in this study. Justin Verlander has been awesome, and a Cy Young candidate. Closer Jose Valverde has been excellent finishing up games, and middle reliever Al Alburquerque has been awesome, striking out 57 in 37 innings. But the rest of the cast has struggled, including new acquisition Doug Fister.
It would be an interesting little tidbit in history if Detroit made the playoffs allowing more runs than they’ve scored. It wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing for their world title hopes either, as that Diamondbacks team was swept in the NLCS by the Rockies, and the Padres were swept in the NLDS by the Cardinals.
