This was talked about on ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast on Thursday, and got me thinking. Jeff Karstens of the Pirates is having a very interesting year. In the 98 2/3 innings he’s thrown this year, he’s only walked 18 batters. That’s excellent, a rate of 1.64 per nine innings, which ranks among the best in baseball. He’s also allowed 17 home runs, good for a rate of 1.55 per nine innings. That’s one of the worst rates in baseball. Despite those bizarre numbers, Karstens still has a great ERA, at 2.55.
Looking at Karstens’ year had me thinking. Has a player ever allowed more home runs than walks in a season, and kept their ERA under 4.00 for the season? I only looked at the expansion era, and eventually found out that yes, it has happened. Here’s a look at those seasons.
Carlos Silva, 2005. 9 BB, 25 HR, 3.44 ERA
This goes down as one of the most remarkable seasons of control in baseball history. Silva only walked nine batters in 188 1/3 innings, which is a walk rate of 0.43 batters per nine innings and a K:BB ratio of 7.89. Imagine if Silva struck out more than 71 batters. Hell, he allowed 72 earned runs that year, so Silva managed to allow more homers than walks, and more runs than strikeouts. That’s insanity. This is *not* the season that let Silva get his insane contract from Seattle that crippled the franchise…amazing, isn’t it?
Rick Reed, 2002. 26 BB, 32 HR, 3.78 ERA
Rick Reed, 1998. 29 BB, 30 HR, 3.48 ERA
Ah yes, Rick Reed. Famous for being a replacement player during the 1994-95 strike and not being allowed to be in any video games put out…as a child, this confused the hell out of me, but whatever. He was never really a great player for the late-90s Mets, but was a solid back of the rotation arm. He also hit the mark in 2002 as a member of the Twins in the second to last season of his career. Reed was an average strikeout pitcher with good control, but was prone to the longball: he allowed 213 over his 15 season career.
Jose Lima, 1998. 32 BB, 34 HR, 3.70 ERA
Lima was prone to the gopher ball over his entire career, much like Reed. He possessed good control for the early part of his career before it fell off a cliff after his miracle season of 1999, when he led the league in K:BB ratio. Over a four year span, from 1998 to 2001, Lima would throw 841 2/3 innings, allow 147 homers, and walk 182. That love for the long ball is stunning.
Those are the most recent examples. Note that they all have one thing in common: after their bizarre control/dinger infatuation seasons, none were ever great again. Lima became a shell of himself, Reed toiled away and didn’t make much of an impact, and Silva was signed to a behemoth contract that became a huge burden on his team. This is just a cautionary tale for all of the Jeff Karstens supporters out there: just because his control is looking good, he’s not necessarily going to be a stud. If the homers are still an issue, he won’t be effective in the long run.
