It’s May 31, 2011. Quick, who’s in first place in the NL West? Is it the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants? Is it the Colorado Rockies, who have two of the top ten best players in the National League? No, it’s neither of those teams. The first place team in the NL West finished 32 games under .500 last year, traded their best pitcher last summer, and has a manager in his first full season at the helm in the major league. The first place team in the NL West…is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling might not be walking through that door, but the Diamondbacks don’t care. They’ve played scintillating baseball lately, going on a 15-2 stretch to go from 5.5 out to 0.5 up in the span of less than three weeks.
The Diamondbacks are succeeding with a solid, young offensive core, an underperforming rotation, and a bullpen that has held it’s own after being offensively bad in 2010. We’ll start with the offense. People are saying that the DBacks can’t keep up their hot offensive start, but I don’t agree. If anything, I think the Diamondbacks offense will get better as the season goes on. No Arizona hitter has a slugging percentage over .500. The team’s most interesting hitter has been Ryan Roberts, an inked up 30 year old who is getting time all around the diamond but spending a majority of his time at third base. Roberts has a fantastic line of .280/.388/.476 with a 15.2% walk rate. He’s been an absolute revelation for the team, and is the prime candidate for regression most people poiint at. Catcher Miguel Montero, fully healthy for his second full season, is batting .287/.368/.470. That .470 slugging is good for third in baseball among catchers.
But you know what, there are some struggling Diamondbacks hitters too. Superstar in the making Justin Upton has a non-superstar .829 OPS. Chris Young and Kelly Johnson both have on base percentages under .300. These are three of the best hitters on the team, and none are playing up to their potential. When they all start hitting, the Arizona offense will look positively scary. They’ve done it so far this season without any of the three knocking down doors, who’s to say that they won’t keep it up?
The pitching is a different story. Arizona has two starters who have been very good this season: Ian Kennedy, and Daniel Hudson. Both are keeping their walks and homers under control, and have good strikeout rates. After the release of Armando Galarraga, Josh Collmenter has been promoted from the bullpen to the rotation, and his pinpoint control has make him very effective. Joe Saunders has been bad, as expected. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, and walks a decent bit….but he’s a “winner” (because he played on some great Angels teams), so he is above all sin. Galarraga was terrible before his release, and Barry Enright hasn’t been much better, with a nearly even strikeout to walk ratio. Three solid starters don’t compare to the rest of the rotations in the division, but they could be enough with the team’s offense.
As for the bullpen, things have done a 180 since last year. New closer JJ Putz has been dynamite, keeping his strikeout rate at a nice level while his walk and homer rates remain low. David Hernandez is striking out a batter an inning and keeping the ball in the park, but a high walk rate is keeping the former Oriole prospect from being elite. LOOGY Joe Paterson has been pure death on lefties and his success against righties could lead to an increased role as the season goes on. The team totally revamped their pen after suffering through pitchers like Chad Qualls last year.
The Diamondbacks have come out of nowhere to lead the west, but they’re going to be there for awhile. This team isn’t going to fade. I believe that they’re only going to get better as 2011 goes on, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the NL West is a three horse race in September.
