Yesterday, I took a look at the NL Cy Young race, and wondered if there actually was a race. I ended up coming to the conclusion that Roy Halladay is far and away the best choice to win the award, with Clayton Kershaw as his only real competition. The NL MVP award is a whole different story, though. This race is wide open, and there are plenty of options at this point in time. Let me run them down for you.
Ryan Braun, Brewers. Braun is probably thought of as being the clubhouse favorite right now. He’s second in the league with a .985 OPS, 25 homers, and 29 stolen bases. He seems a lock to join the 30/30 club this season (as will our next candidate), and plays for a playoff team in Milwaukee. The only real negative thing people say about Braun is that he’s bad defensively, though he’s been neutral over the past two seasons according to DRS. This is the best season of his young career so far, and I think he’s going to end up winning the award, unless one of the other people on this list goes ape in September.
Matt Kemp, Dodgers. Kemp is one homer away from going 30/30, and he could threaten 40/40 with a hot September. His OPS is .962, which is excellent from any player, let alone a center fielder. People point to Kemp’s good defense as a highlight for him, but both UZR and DRS have listed him as below average over the past two seasons. If you’re big into RBI (which I am not), he’s got 97 of them. Simply put, Kemp is an elite talent on a terrible team. The fact that he plays for such a bad team in Los Angeles will punish him in the eyes of the voters once it’s time to vote.
Jose Reyes, Mets. Reyes won our midseason voting for MVP here at the Outside Corner, but hasn’t played much since the All-Star Break due to a hamstring strain. In fact, he’s only played in 98 games on the season, yet is still worth 5.2 fWAR. I’m sure you all know the deal with Reyes by now. He’s hitting for a high average, stealing bases, and hitting for power like he never has over his career. But like Kemp, he plays for a terrible team. That, along with the injury that’s killed his playing time, will likely end his hops of winning the MVP award.
Joey Votto, Reds. What about the reigning NL MVP? He’s having an under the radar season, but has gotten hot this August, with a 1.261 OPS and seven homers this month. He leads the NL with a .992 OPS, is walking as much as he strikes out, and is playing great defense at first base. But the defending NL Central champion Reds have scuffled, and they sit in third place, half a mile behind the Brewers at the top of the division. Votto’s team is going to hurt his candidacy like it will for Kemp and Reyes, but I’m not sure that it should.
Prince Fielder, Brewers. Another member of the NL Central champions is making some noise, though his season has fallen off a bit lately after a monstrous June. But Fielder has all of the traditional numbers that the voters love: a high RBI total, lots of homers, and a high batting average. But Fielder is a liability both on defense and on the basepaths, and his teammate Braun has been a vastly superior player this season. I think Braun will earn the lion’s share of votes from the media instead of Fielder, but that’s not to say that Prince isn’t deserving.
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks. Upton is another popular guy coming up lately, and for good reason. He turns 24 today (happy birthday Justin!) and is in his fifth major league season. Upton has turned into the superstar that Arizona expected when they drafted him first overall back in 2005, and the team has him locked up until 2015. You have to wonder if he’s just scratching the surface on how good he can be. Can there really be even more upside after a .914 OPS as a 24 year old? Whatever the case, he’s a big reason for Arizona’s contention in the NL West this season. In addition to his dynamic bat, Upton is playing excellent defense and has been good on the basepaths as well.
So who’s my pick? Right now, my ballot would probably be Braun-Upton-Kemp, with the other three players I mentioned falling outside of my top three. But there is still a lot of baseball left to be played, and a dynamite month of September could catapult someone to the top of the MVP heap, like it has so many times before.
