Prior to the start of the 2010 season, Jose Bautista had a career line of .238/.329/.400. He had a total of 59 home runs over 2038 career plate appearances, just about twice as many strikeouts as walks, and was a journeyman, playing for a total of five MLB teams over his six years in the bigs. But then, prior to that 2010 season, something happened. Bautista adjusted his stance, and became an absolute MONSTER. In the 798 plate appearances that followed, over the 2010 and 2011 season, Bautista is hitting .273/.400/.636. He’s hit 63 home runs. And his walks and strikeouts are a hair away from being even.
Last season, Bautista was the toast of the town for the Jays. He finished fourth in AL MVP voting after hitting a league high 54 homers and playing at four positions around the diamond. Many experts were quick to call the year a fluke, and said Bautista would be lucky to crack 20 homers in 2011. Well here we are on May 3rd, and Bautista is almost halfway there, with nine already. He leads the AL in runs, homers, walks, and all three slash stats. He’s walked nearly twice as much as he’s struck out. Jose Bautista is now being seriously talked about as one of the best hitters in the league, and quite frankly, he’s been the absolute best in the American League this season. That’s a point that’s tough to rebut.
Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous was labeled as a boy wonder when he was promoted following the 2009 season. Since he’s taken over, he’s somehow dumped the albatross of a contract belonging to Vernon Wells, extended young stars in the making Ricky Romero, Adam Lind, and Aaron Hill, and slyly acquired Miguel Olivo in the offseason, only to let him walk away as a free agent and collect draft pick compensation. He’s slashed payroll, but made the Jays a better team. That’s why some people were questioning the extension given to Bautista this past February. Anthopolous put all his eggs in the Bautista basket, committing $65 million guaranteed to a player with one great season. Five weeks into the season, Fangraphs has valued Bautista’s 2011 performance at $12.6 million, which exceeds his actual salary for the year. At the moment, Bautista is already proving to be a great value for the Blue Jays. He turns 31 after the season ends, so he’s near the tail end of his prime. Bautista will likely be overpaid near the end of his contract, but that doesn’t seem to matter to the Blue Jays. After the way Anthopolous was able to move the Wells contract, which is much uglier than the Bautista deal, I think he believes he’d be able to move Bautista’s contract if he starts performing below expectations in 2014 or 2015. I wouldn’t doubt it.
But enough about Anthopolous, let’s get back to the player. Is Bautista going to continue to be a soul-taking MLB god? Probably not. He’s playing on an unearthly level right now. Currently, Bautista has a batting average on balls in play of around .356. His career norm is .273. The league average is around .300. Even last season, when Bautista was one of the best hitters in the league, his BABIP was only .233, indicating that he could have actually been unlucky last season. But with the change in seasons has brought a change of approach at the plate for Bautista. He’s swung at a clip over 40% for almost his entire career. This season, that mark is all the way down to 33%, the fifth lowest mark in the league. His change in approach is a good thing, though: pitchers are only throwing him a first pitch strike on 45.2% of his plate appearances. Why hack away if you’re going to get bad pitchers? That appears to be Bautista’s new philosophy, and it’s working damn well so far: he’s got 30 walks to only 16 strikeouts, and only one of those walks has been intentional. Bautista has always shown above average patience at the plate, but this season, it’s been otherworldly so far. Jose Bautista, power hitter with good plate discipline is a scary dude. Jose Bautista, power hitter with amazing plate discipline is Barry Bonds. Just a quick comparison between Bonds and Bautista: in Barry’s insane 2002 season, where he put up 13.0 WAR, he walked in 32.4% of his plate appearances and had an isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) or .536. Thusfar in 2011, Jose has walked in 26.1% of his plate appearances and has an ISO of .405.
I’m not sure if that comparison outlines just how damn good Barry Bonds was, or how good Bautista is playing right now. All I know is this: Jose Bautista is one horrifying hitter at this moment, and the path he took to get to where he is right now is certainly an interesting one. Bautista has been traded for guys like Justin Huber, Kris Benson, and Robinzon Diaz over his career. And now, he’s Superman. Just think, it’s all because of a stance change and a new approach at the plate. Bautista gives guys bouncing from organization to organization a reason to keep their heads up and keep trying new things. Because if he can do it, can’t anyone?
