David Price has always been highly touted, since being drafted out of Vanderbilt. But it wasn’t until this season before he became truly elite. “What?” you ask. “His ERA is 3.52, and that’s a hell of a lot higher than the 2.72 it was last year!” You’re correct, his ERA is higher. But Price is a much better pitcher this season than he was any other year of his career, and the high ERA is just telling you that he’s gotten unlucky.
Below is a chart detailing Price’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, ERA, and corresponding Fielder Independent Pitching mark, which is a method of determining how well a pitcher has pitched based on the things he can control as opposed to balls that his fielders could have misplayed, etc.
| Year | K Rate | BB Rate | HR Rate | ERA | FIP |
| 2009 | 7.15 | 3.79 | 1.19 | 4.42 | 4.59 |
| 2010 | 8.11 |
3.41 |
0.65 | 2.72 | 3.42 |
| 2011 | 8.11 | 1.49 | 0.75 | 3.52 | 2.97 |
What the chart shows you is that in each of his three professional seasons, Price’s strikeout rate has increased, his walk rate has decreased, and his homer rate first decreased very sharply, but then increased a little bit this season due to the relative youth of the 2011 season. With the changes in those rate stats, his FIP has also decreased every year, to a level this season that is considered elite. As the season wears on, and if Price continues to pitch the way that he has, his ERA will soon start to match his FIP a little more, and he’ll start getting a little more recognition. If Price is able to keep his walk rate as low as he has in 2011, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the league, and there won’t be a mini-controversy like there was when he started the All-Star Game last season.
