Years ago, a website was created that skewered hardline thinking on issues stemming from cliches and how people in charge of multi-million dollar operations covered up their mistakes by using those cliches. The website was called “Veteran Presence” (probably the most used of all cliches when it comes to sports) and was spearheaded by Phil Rippa and Bill Barnwell, who later wrote for both Football Outsiders and now writes for Grantland. The duo would do massive football and baseball previews and would write about how when veterans who were either washed up or overrated were coveted highly by their teams, they surmised that the only value they had was their “veteran presence.” The phrase, of course, stems from the intangibles that a veteran brings to a clubhouse and his teammates, where the magical pixie dust of veteranness can sprinkle onto the younger players to bring them up “the right way” and where a veteran’s experience trumps all statistics and logic.
The problem with that line of thinking is that it can only be totally understood by those who are bullheaded enough not to accept another line of thinking; that unless you’ve been around the block a few times, you can’t help out because “you don’t know what it takes.” That way of thinking has permeated the mentality of the San Francisco Giants front office staff for over a decade, as the team has not been able to shake this trend of signing 30-somethings that are either over the hill or at least taking the next step towards the downturn of it.
For the second time this season, Brandon Belt was sent down to triple-A to make way for the arrival of Mark DeRosa off the 60-day disabled list. This is the same Mark DeRosa who re-injured his oft-troubled wrist on the load for a swing (not the swing itself, just the load portion) months ago and basically became a sunk cost LAST year when the Giants signed him to a two-year, $12 million deal. Since then, DeRosa has been a ludicrously bad player and an even bigger injury burden to bear, having spent over an entire year’s worth of games on the disabled list while accruing -1.0 wins above replacement (via Fangraphs). Most certainly, any normally team would see this and realize that it’s not worth it to put DeRosa out there on a semi-regular basis, if at all.
But for the Giants, DeRosa is the answer to their prayers. He can play multiple positions, he’s gritty, he has a pedigree of a longtime MLBer (he hit the ten year service line this season)…and he has that “veteran presence.”
Let’s not kid ourselves here: the Giants got to the World Series and won it with an ensemble cast of 30+ year-old players who were either over the hill, completely unknown or were cast off by other teams. Somehow, guys like Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross and Andres Torres combined to form a group of players that helped carry the Giants offense to a championship title. Obviously, Buster Posey had a little bit to do with that, but the fact remains that veteran players played a major role in the Giants winning their first championship in San Francisco.
But many people don’t want to admit what a lot of analysts have known for months: The Giants basically got lucky on their way to a World Series title. The pitching was obviously terrific, but half the offensive team basically peaked at the same time, they got postseason runs from Ross and Edgar Renteria of all people (who STILL bats at the top of the order for the Reds sometimes this season, despite the .242/.305/.316 line, negative fielding rating and 0.4 WAR) and they were able to beat Roy Halladay AND Cliff Lee TWICE. (Writer’s note: I have tons of friends who are Giants fans, but many won’t accept the large amount of luck that played into their title run to this day.)
Brian Sabean also doesn’t accept that. For him, the 2010 season completely confirmed his strategy that he had been employing for years. Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval are the exceptions to the rule, as outside of that duo, the Giants haven’t produced a major everyday player in the field for quite some time. In fact, going back through the last decade of players the Giants have produced, the last Giants farmhand that actually did something of note for them was when Pedro Feliz held down the hot corner to the tune of a few two to three WAR seasons in the mid 2000s. That’s league average play. Sabean and Giants head of player development Dick Tidrow have done a spectacular job of developing one of the top pitching staffs in the majors and should be commended for doing so. But for a team who once famously quipped “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect,” there hasn’t been so much of a sniff of an offensive prospect until Sandoval and Posey came along.
Enter Belt, who rocketed up prospect lists in 2010 and turned himself into a top-flight offensive force, someone who could profile in the middle of a batting order with 20-30 homers, decent speed for a first baseman due to his athleticism, a good eye at the plate and good defense. Considering Huff had only had the one season (albeit an MVP-caliber season), Belt should have been able to slide right into the first base job with a good Spring Training considering that Huff seemed like a one-hit wonder. Instead, Sabean rewarded Huff’s one-off year with a multi-year deal that would lock up first base through 2012 at the least instead of letting someone else overpay for him. Belt did have that good Spring Training, made the team anyway and was placed at first base while Huff moved to an outfield corner. Huff played so terribly out of position that when Belt hit his expected rookie struggles, Sabean figured the best course of action would be to send Belt down instead of letting him work his way out of the funk, like Atlanta did with their rookie first baseman, Freddie Freeman. Sabean’s logic was obviously that because Huff is a veteran, he knows how to work out of his struggles to get back on the right track more than Belt would.
Instead, Sabean has let Huff hit at a rate of .243/.293/.366 in 445 plate appearances with a bad glove, good for -1.0 WAR and the title of worst regular first baseman in all of baseball. Yes, Huff has accrued as much WAR this year as DeRosa has in TWO years. In Belt’s 90 plate appearances, he hit at .218/.322/.333 with a decent glove and good baserunning, which put him at 0.3 WAR. Meaning that in over 300 more plate appearances, Huff hasn’t been as good as four Brandon Belts. In fact, give Belt 445 plate appearances to accumulate stats at the same rate he started the season with, and he’d be at 1.2 WAR, good for a 2-win improvement and probably more if he was allowed the time to improve on his early struggles (which by all accounts, he should have, if his Triple-A numbers are any indication). Interestingly enough, Sabean had no problem whatsoever with Posey supplanting the horrible Bengie Molina last season in a similar situation, but due to the rule of the Super Two, it was assumed that Molina was re-signed only because the Giants needed to wait until Posey earned his status, as Posey was clearly ready in spring training like Belt was.
Unfortunately, because of Belt being jerked around like he has (and an unfortunate wrist injury in June that could have led to him overtaking Huff sooner), it looks like 2011 is a lost season for him. DeRosa will be the backup first baseman the rest of the way, Belt will be the guy who will wait for a September call-up when rosters expand, and Huff will continue to play at first base every day, with the Giants hoping against hope that he’d turn things around in time for the playoffs because, as Sabean thinks, veterans can always figure out how to turn things around. With the hard-charging Diamondbacks making moves to stay with the Giants and steal the National League West, and where a win or two here or there could end up being the difference, the Giants and their fans better hope that the veteran GM can figure out a way to turn things around, too…if he begrudgingly chooses to do so. If he does, help is only one phone call to Fresno away.
