Early in the season, I noted that Ryan Braun might be an NL MVP candidate if the Brewers made it to the playoffs. Well Milwaukee is right in the thick of things in the Central, and Braun is a major reason why. The 27 year-old is on pace to have the best season of his career, as he’s stepped up his game and established himself as one of the league’s best players. How’s he done it?
Braun is hitting .306/.398/.575, which is not only generally great, but with this depressed run environment is one of the top few lines in the league. He’s always been a pretty good hitter for average, and 2011 is right in line with his career numbers (though, again, it’s more impressive given that league average is down like 10 points from even just a two seasons ago). The OBP would be a career high though, as Braun his increased his walk rate 50% over the last couple years. He’s walking in 12.5% of his plate appearances, which doesn’t place him amongst the league leaders but is solidly above average (whereas previously he was below average, if only slightly, recently).
Being more selective at the plate can also help in the power department, swinging at good pitches to hit. So far this season, Braun is second in the NL with 12 home runs. He’s hitting bombs at a rate similar to 2008, when he knocked a career high 37 out of the park. To approach or pass that mark this year, combined with generating so many fewer outs, would be very impressive.
Can Braun keep it up? I’d say yes and no. I buy some of the increased power and patience, but it probably won’t continue at quite this level. The jump in walk rate is quite large, so that’ll likely regress going forward. And Braun is having 22.6% of his flyballs go over the fence this season, which would be the highest number of his career (even higher than when he hit 34 home runs in only 113 games as a rookie). Plus he’s not elevating the ball as much as he did in his first couple seasons in the league, which makes it a bit tougher to get to that 40 home run plateau. Still, 30+ homers would be quite good
Even slightly worse production at the plate might be enough to win the MVP award if the Brewers pass the Cardinals and win the division title (which they’ve got a good shot to do, now that they having some pitching to go along with their offense). One minus for Braun that may not be given full weight by the voters is his defense, which is somewhere between “not good” and “pretty bad”. That drags down his value some, but right now he’s hitting more than well enough to make up for it.
