I’ve written more than a few words about the NL Cy Young award this season. I need to write more right now. While Roy Halladay still leads all MLB pitchers in fWAR with 8.1, Clayton Kershaw has crept up behind right behind him, second in baseball with 6.8. If you dig a little deeper, you can realize that while Halladay is still the best overall pitcher, Kershaw has a good chance to win the award because of his advantages in more conventional stats.
Kerhsaw is third in the National League in innings pitched with 218 2/3, just one inning behind Halladay and teammate Cliff Lee, who have 219 2/3. Kershaw has a slim lead in ERA, as his 2.30 mark is the best in baseball, just fractions ahead of Halladay (2.34) and Lee (2.38). Kershaw is also second in baseball (and tops in the NL) with 236 strikeouts. If not for an ejection earlier this week after five innings of work against the Diamondbacks, Kershaw would likely lead the NL in innings and would lead baseball in strikeouts.
Now, in the “stats that I really don’t care a lot about…but a lot of the voting types in the media do” category, Kershaw has a 19-5 record. Those 19 wins are tied for the second most in baseball, behind just Justin Verlander and his 23 in the AL. Halladay has 18, and Lee has 16. Kershaw also has a Verlander-esque 17-2 record since the calendar flipped to May.
One other thing to take into account is that Halladay and Lee could possibly split the east coast vote. Both pitchers have been excellent this season, and could steal votes from each other If that happens, Kershaw is the most likely candidate to sneak in and steal the award, due to the lack of high-end candidates on the west coast. The Giants staff has ugly win/loss totals due to their team’s pathetic offense, and I think that will hurt the chances of Cain, Bumgarner and Lincecum in the voting. In Arizona, Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson have both had excellent breakout seasons, but fall flat to Kershaw’s dominance.
I’m not saying Kershaw should win the award. But if he wins the triple crown, it will be hard to deny it to him, even if Halladay has been the more valuable pitcher.
