We already talked about the big trade that happened today between the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and White Sox, with Colby Rasmus going to Toronto, Jason Frasor going to Chicago, and Edwin Jackson heading to St Louis. The internet reaction to this has mainly been weighted on one side of things: in favor of the Blue Jays, giving up (essentially) nothing but relievers for a five tool talent. The Cardinals are getting roundly bashed for destroying their big picture plans in favor of a quick win this year for a team that could lose its star player after this year.
We’re going to do a little point/counterpoint on this deal, and all of the deals that happen this week. I will be taking the side in favor of the Rasmus deal for Toronto, while Ben Duronio will be on the side supporting the Cardinals trading Rasmus.
Joe Lucia: The Cardinals made a huge mistake trading Colby Rasmus. Think about the best hitters that the franchise has produced since Albert Pujols debuted in 2001. There is…um…Rasmus….and uh….er….yeah. Think about some of the hideous hitters that the Cardinals have put out over the past decade: Chris Duncan. Bo Hart. Kerry Robinson. Brian Barton. Rasmus is the only legitimate impact hitter the team has created since Pujols debuted. And now, he’s gone. He’s not just gone…he’s gone for a package headlined by a starter who is the very defintion of “journeyman” in Edwin Jackson.
Don’t get me wrong, acquiring Jackson improves the Cardinals rotation. It’ll allow the redbirds to move Kyle McClellan back to the bullpen to ease some of the strain on his arm, as he’s already thrown 110 innings this year. Rzepczynski and Dotel slot nicely into the bullpen. But is downgrading in center from Rasmus to Jon Jay on a full-time basis really worth it? Jay has nowhere near the pedigree or potential as Rasmus. He has less power, less patience, is a worse baserunner, and only has a better overall triple slash than Rasmus because he’s been luckier.
Dumping a guy who could be a franchise cornerstone because he’s not getting along with your manager is a stupid move. It’s reminiscent of the Braves trading Yunel Escobar last season to the Blue Jays, for a veteran Alex Gonzalez. Escobar didn’t get along with Bobby Cox and was considered a clubhouse cancer, and the team dumped him off for ten cents on the dollar. The Cardinals got more value for Rasmus than the Braves did for Escobar, but still could have gotten a hell of a lot more. You mean to tell me that Atlanta or San Francisco couldn’t have given the Cardinals a better, younger player than Edwin Jackson?
Ben Duronio: I would certainly not venture out to say that the Cardinals won this deal, but I don’t see it as a complete loss as some see it. Yes, there are no obvious long term assets available, unless Edwin Jackson is offered arbitration and turns it town, which would allow the Cardinals to receive at least one compensation pick for losing him in free agency. The Cardinals also have the ability to sign Jackson to a multi-year deal, which could provide useful under Dave Duncan’s tutelage and with a return to the National League.
Jackson has been the 22nd best pitcher in the majors according to Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement, with a 3.0 WAR. While the loss of Rasmus will hurt the Cardinal offense, their pitching staff and bullpen received a big boost. St. Louis’ 3.97 bullpen ERA is pedestrian at best, but should improve with the acquisitions of Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel.
The package is not what some would hope, but Rasmus’ value is likely not as high as most fans and bloggers assume. His breakout 2010 season was backed by a .354 BABIP that is likely not repeatable. With the NL Central being such a close race, improving the team this season was necessary and the Cardinals believe they did that.
The biggest mistake made by the Cardinals in this deal was not dealing Rasmus after last season when his value at his highest and when the rumors began. If he were dealt then, the package would have been much sweeter and could have brought back a big haul that would help the team more for the long term.
In short, the Cardinals got better in the short term and most likely worse in the long term, but this game is about winning and the Cardinals gave themselves a better opportunity to win a world series this year than they previously had. While sacrificing the future is not an efficient way to do that, losing a center fielder with questionable defense and a career .334 OBP is not the worst thing that has ever happened.
