Well, the Beltran trade became official today, and he’s making his Giants debut tonight, hitting in the three hole against Philly. I reached out to Outside Corner contributor and diehard Giants fan Tim Livingston to get his take on the deal, and we’ve put a little Point/Counterpoint together. Take it away, Tim.
Tim Livingston: Brian Sabean has a long history of going after veteran players at the expense of young talent, and a trade like this makes people think it’s more of the same for the longest tenured general manager in baseball. But unlike other trades that have given him that moniker, this trade seems like just a smart move by a GM who understands his timetable to be a championship-level team.
He has lost his best offensive player (Buster Posey) for the season and the player he thought was on an upswing (Aubrey Huff) reverted to a pumpkin this season. He gained back Kung Fu Slim Panda, but saw regression from Pat Burrell, Cody Ross and Andres Torres. He also lost regular Freddy Sanchez at the keystone, the definition of “league average”. So when stuck in a situation where you had Aaron Rowand batting third, Cody Ross batting fourth and Huff fifth at one point this season, this team needed an offensive boost about as bad as any team in baseball.
They are the second best run prevention team behind Philadelphia, but their offense at 373 runs scored is not only the worst amongst all teams that are contending for a playoff spot, but it is the third worst amount in ALL OF BASEBALL. Only the Padres and the hapless Mariners score less runs. This team is begging for anyone to step up offensively and bolster the offense.
Enter Beltran, who is in the midst of a bounceback season and on pace for at least 4 wins above replacement regardless of whatever metric you use, which makes him the most valuable non-pitcher on the team as soon as he arrives. He solidifies an outfield corner, gives Schierholtz a better fit in left field and moves Ross and Rowand to platoon roles, where Rowand specifically has shined (.314/.341/.453 vs LHP this season).
What some people are arguing is what the Giants gave up in the deal, which is Zack Wheeler, the top pitching prospect in the system and by many accounts one of the best in all of baseball. However, a look at his stats don’t automatically paint the picture of a future ace. Sure that 10 K/9 IP looks pretty, but that 4.8 BB/9 doesn’t, and a 3.99 ERA at High-A ball at age 21 doesn’t exactly scream that he’ll be headlining a rotation anytime soon. He has upside, but he doesn’t have the performance to back up the claim that he’ll be an anchor for years to come at the Major League level. In fact, a good source has said that while he has the ceiling of a #1, there would be no surprise whatsoever if he became more of a 2-3-4 guy or even a set-up/closer type thanks to that hammer of a curveball he has. That’s not a lockdown front of a rotation guy like a Martin Perez, Julio Teheran or Matt Moore.
Another cry was what to do about the future of the rotation, where the Barry Zito Albatross looms until 2013, Tim Lincecum is about to inherit a BIG payday in his final year of arbitration, and Matt Cain will go into the final year of his deal next year. Jonathan Sanchez is also going to arbitration in 2012, and perhaps Ryan Vogelsong can’t repeat his incredible 2011 season. With the rotation in flux, a guy like Wheeler, if he improves throughout next season, could make an impact at some point at the end of ’12 out of the bullpen or even as a spot starter.
But what Brian Sabean realizes (as do I) is that if there is a perfect storm of not being able to re-sign Lincecum and Cain together, and the trade value you get out of them resorts to players that wouldn’t make an immediate impact, the Beltran trade was made because they want to repeat as champions knowing their window might suddenly close very soon. Wheeler could turn out to be something special (although the Mets haven’t exactly been churning out top-flight pitchers in recent history) but a Giants repeat is more special than a #1 draft pick making an impact in a Giants rotation too late to be a part of a championship team.
Joe Lucia Tim makes a hell of an argument. Beltran will undoubtedly strengthen the Giants offense, but I’m not really focused on his addition to the team. What I’m focusing on is Brian Sabean trading six years of Zack Wheeler for two months of Beltran. Wheeler was the seventh pick in the 2009 draft, one pick ahead of Mike Minor of the Braves, who has already logged a decent bit of major league time. Wheeler is only 21 years of age, and spent the season in the A-ball California League. The Cal League is great for hitters, and Wheeler held his own: a 3.99 ERA, 98 strikeouts, 47 walks, and only 7 homers in 88 innings. Those are pretty solid numbers for anyone, let alone a 21 year old in his first taste of a hitters league.
What separates Wheeler from other top Giants pitching prospects that have been dealth, like Tim Alderson and Ryan Vogelsong? Simple: Wheeler manages to keep the ball on the ground, an invaluable skill for a pitcher of his age. When you’re able to combine his groundball ability with his strikeout power, Wheeler becomes a much more interesting prospect. As Tim mentioned, the control looks like a bit of a concern. But the kid is 21 years old, and his too high walk rate is balanced out by a nice strikeout rate. Wheeler will be fine in the long run, and immediately becomes one of the best players in the Mets farm system.
Perhaps more concerning for the Giants is what they did after acquirng Beltran. They sent Brandon Belt down to the minors. The 23 year old Belt has nothing left to prove in the minors, as he’s kicking the tar out of the PCL with a 1.024 OPS in 47 games this season. With Belt in the minors, plate appearances at first base will continue to be eaten up by the awful Aubrey Huff. Huff’s contract is looking like an absolute overpay at this point, and the Giants still feel obligated to let him attempt to earn that contract and fail miserably. It is inane to go with a veteran over a rookie when the rookie absolutely rakes in the minors, and the veteran isn’t hitting at all in the majors. Yet, that’s what the Giants are doing in this situation.
The Beltran trade not only cost the team a top prospect, it is also hindering the development of a top prospect of their own. The Giants made this move to win now, but they didn’t take sight of the future in the deal at all, and that’s why I believe that the move was very short sighted.
