The news has broken today that Colts QB Peyton Manning will miss the first game of the NFL season this weekend due to a neck injury. The Colts offense revolves around Manning, and without him playing, fans everywhere are wondering just how bad Indianapolis will be. That made me think of this: are there any baseball teams out there that have a player like Manning who absolutely controls their team, and without him, they’re screwed? Here are five examples.
1) Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays. .304/.442/.627, 7.9 fWAR
I’ve written about the value of Jose Bautista before, and I think it bears bringing up again when talking about this topic. Without Bautista, the Blue Jays are one of the worst teams in the league instead of hovering around .500 like they are right now with him. He’s been worth 7.9 fWAR on the season. The only other Blue Jays above 3.0 on the year are Yunel Escobar (4.3) and Brandon Morrow (3.1). Hell, there are only two other players between 2.0 and 3.0 too (Brett Lawrie at 2.1 in just 31 games, and Ricky Romero at 2.4). Toronto might not be a great team with Bautista, but they’re a downright terrible team without him.
2) Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates. .267/.370/.460, 5.3 fWAR
When the Pirates were flirting with contention in July, McCutchen was the biggest reason why. He’s the best player on the team by far, and without him, they are a downright terrible team. But hey, he couldn’t do it alone all year. Despite an .811 August OPS, the Pirates went 8-22 and are now closer to fifth place in the division than third placae. His only teammates above 2.0 fWAR this season are Neil Walker (2.7), Paul Maholm (2.1) and Charlie Morton (2.0).
3) Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals. .300/.375/.498, 6.1 fWAR
Gordon has gone from a top prospect, to a bust, and all the way back up to a star after his breakout 2011 campaign. He’s the brightest star on a young Royals team where none of the other young talent has shined as bright as Gordon. A big part of his value is his defense, as he’s flourished since being shifted to left field from third base last season. Another part of Gordon’s value is who exactly the other valuable members (meaning, more than 2.0 fWAR) of the Royals are: veterans Melky Cabrera (3.2), Jeff Francouer (2.5), Jeff Francis (2.6), and Felipe Paulino (2.0), and young stars Billy Butler (2.4) and Luke Hochevar (2.3). Only Butler and Hochevar have any real future value for Kansas City, and the struggles of the rest of KC’s future parts exempliy Gordon’s great year.
4) Jose Reyes, New York Mets. .334/.373/.494, 5.3 fWAR
This is an example that actually had real implications this year, with Reyes missing a bunch of time with a hamstring injury. The Mets are 15-17 when he doesn’t play this season. But then again, most of those games that he missed where when Carlos Beltran still on the team. Beltran is gone now, and the only current Mets with more than 2.0 fWAR are Daniel Murphy (3.2) and Jon Niese (2.7). The injury to Ike Davis didn’t help matters either, and David Wright has also missed time for the Mets this year. But Reyes is their best player by far, and without him playing in 150 games, the team has historically struggled.
5) Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians. 11-8, 2.92 ERA, 5.2 fWAR
Masterson has been the gem of the Indians season after being acquired from Boston in 2009 in the Victor Martinez trade. Masterson was projected to be a bullpen arm by most, but has made an impact in the rotation for Cleveland this year. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but doesn’t walk any and keeps the ball in the park quite well. Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled since becoming an Indian, and the rest of their rotation has been pretty bad all year. In their rotation, only Josh Tomlin has been worth above 1.5 fWAR (1.7), and when you look at their offense, only Asdrubal Cabrera (3.5), Carlos Santana (2.9) and Jack Hannahan (2.3, primarily based on defense) have been worth above 2.0 fWAR. If the Indians did move Masterson to their bullpen instead of their rotation this year, they wouldn’t even have been flirting with a postseason run for a majority of the season.
