When I wrote about Ryan Braun last week, I noted that his numbers were even more impressive than they looked because offensive levels were down this year. It’s the case that I need to do extra digging more often now, because all the usual reference points don’t seem to work anymore. Just take a look at how the major league average batting line has changed in recent years*:
* I’m not going into why; just presenting the facts.
2006: .269/.337/.432 – .768 OPS
2007: .268/.336/.423 – .758 OPS
2008: .264/.333/.416 – .749 OPS
2009: .262/.333/.418 – .751 OPS
2010: .257/.325/.403 – .728 OPS
2011: .250/.320/.387 – .707 OPS
A 60 point drop in OPS over 5 seasons. It’s still early, so there’s a good chance things pick up a bit as we get into the summer – but it’s likely that the end of year figures will be below 2010.
Batters aren’t really walking less than they used to – the 2006-2010 average walk rate on a plate appearance basis was 8.6%, and that’s where it stands in 2011 too (also similar if you take at the intentional walks) – but they are striking out in a larger proportion of times to the dish:
2006: 16.8%
2007: 17.1%
2008: 17.5%
2009: 18.0%
2010: 18.5%
2011: 18.4%
So that’s fewer balls being put into play, which is going to depress the batting average a little bit. On top of that, batters aren’t doing as much with the ball when they are putting it in play
2006: .301 Batting Average on Balls In Play
2007: .303 BABIP
2008: .300 BABIP
2009: .299 BABIP
2010: .297 BABIP
2011: .295 BABIP
Again, not a big change – maybe a 2-4 hits over the course of a full season for a batter. Beyond just overall hits, power is down too:
2006: .175 Isolated Power, 17.2 HR per 600 PA
2007: .166 ISO, 15.8 HR per 600 PA
2008: .164 ISO, 15.8 HR per 600 PA
2009: .165 ISO, 16.2 HR per 600 PA
2010: .157 ISO, 14.9 HR per 600 PA
2011: .138 ISO, 13.7 HR per 600 PA
So a guy like Braun – batting .307/.400/.577 – is 5th in the majors in OPS this year, where as in 2006 that would have placed him 11th. The guy who was 5th back then was David Ortiz, batting .287/.413/.639. Plus, keep in mind, batters this year are going to tend to regress towards the mean going forward – that means there’s a good chance the 5th place hitter will have an even lower OPS by year end. When you see a star like Albert Pujols hitting .265/.332/.407 it’s easy to feel it’s a big letdown (it still is, but only because Pujols was ridiculously awesome for so long), but that is still solidly above average production this year (a few years ago it would have been solidly below average).
All this is reflected in pitcher stats as well. The league average ERA has dropped:
2006: 4.53
2007: 4.47
2008: 4.32
2009: 4.32
2010: 4.08
2011: 3.80 (This will pick up as going into the summer too)
So whereas AJ Burnett’s 3.98 ERA in 2006 was pretty darnn good (40th out of 138 pitchers with at least 100 IP), this season his 3.99 ERA is nothing special at all (78th out of 118 qualified pitchers).
It’s a little tricky resetting our frame of reference, but it’s something we need to do to have a better idea of what’s going on around the league these days. If things continue in a similar manner for the rest of 2011 and into the next couple seasons, I think we’ll get used to it.
