The NL Central is baseball’s only six-team division, and as July winds down, it’s also the only division that really has four teams in the playoff race. At the 100 game (or so) mark, the Pirates, Cardinals, and Brewers are tied at the top and the defending champion Reds are just three games behnd. So what does each club need to stand out? And what are the lagging Astros and Cubs planning on doing if they’re not contending?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are the one team that’s actually made a significant move so far in trading for Francisco Rodriguez, but they’re probably not done yet. They have a glaring weakness at shortstop named Yuniesky Betancourt, they could probably use another bullpen arm to go with John Axford and K-Rod, and Carlos Gomez just went down for the season with a broken collarbone.
It won’t be easy to find a shortstop (it never is these days), but at the same time, Betancourt is terrible and it would be hard for any replacement the Brewers can dig up to be worse than him. Still, JJ Hardy is off the market after being re-signed by the Orioles and Rafael Furcal’s health is a big question mark, so there’s not an obvious solution, either. In the outfield, there’s no indication that the Brewers are looking to trade for Carlos Beltran or any other similarly big move, so they may instead just look to upgrade their depth with Gomez down. Their front office obviously isn’t afraid to make a bold move with Prince Fielder facing free agency, but they’re probaby going to be handcuffed by the fact that there’s just not a whole lot left in their system to trade right now.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards have the best offense in the National League, but without Adam Wainwright they have some serious concerns both in their bullpen and their rotation. They’re looking for bullpen help on the cheap right now, but their big trade chip at this deadline is Colby Rasmus, who they’ve decided is expendable with the emergence of John Jay. If they deal Rasmus, they’re probably hoping to fix both their bullpen and their rotation problem in one fell swoop as 24-year old centerfielders with on-base skills and power don’t grow on trees.
If they can’t deal Rasmus, they’ll probably shoot for a succession of smaller moves. They’ve shown interest in Jeremy Guthrie and in the Padre relievers that are all on the market. That said, John Mozeliak apparently isn’t willing to break up the big league roster (outside of Rasmus, I guess), so it may be hard for him to outbid teams for guys like Guthrie, Heath Bell, and Mike Adams, all who should have wide appeal at the deadline.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have the opposite problem as the Reds and Cardinals: they have pitching, but they need offense. Neal Huntington has reportedly checked in on guys like Carlos Beltran and Hunter Pence, but found the hitters too pricey for his liking as he’s training to maintain course with his rebuilding plan while still helping his unexpected contender. That could result in a trade that’s mostly driven by the Pirates giving someone payroll relief for a minor upgrade, possibly a Josh Willingham in the outfield or Carlos Pena at first base.
The Bucs also seem to be on the lookout for bullpen help. That may seem curious at first given the strength of their ‘pen, but most of their rotation is headed for career-high workloads, and the Bucs may be hoping to help their rotation by deepening the depth of their bullpen.
Cincinnati Reds
Like the Cardinals, the Reds can maul the ball, but they have some big pitching concerns with Edinson Volquez’s terrible year. They’ve apparently checked in on some big-name pitchers thus far, including James Shields and Ubaldo Jiminez, but the prices on those two are pretty likely to be astronomical and it’s unclear if the Reds are willing to pay a full ransom for them. If they can’t pull off a big deal, they’ll likely be headed to the same starting pitcher scrap heap as everyone else, maybe even within their own division with Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, and Ryan Dempster all on the block.
They’re also reportedly exploring adding another bat. They have some prospects to work with to get either a bat or an arm (Yonder Alonso, who’s in Triple-A but blocked by Joey Votto), so it may be a question of simply dealing for whatever Alonso can get them, be that an arm or a bat.
Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs
It’s sell, sell, sell time in Houston and Chicago. The Astros are trying to cut payroll and Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers are definitely on the chopping block, while Ed Wade also appears willing to listen to offers for Hunter Pence, who isn’t a free agent until 2014 but who will carry some pricey arbitration salaries in 2012 and 2013. The Cubs will almost certainly part with Carlos Pena’s contract and they’ll probably also try to find a taker for Aramis Ramirez, though Ramirez has a no trade clause that he seems loathe to waive and a $16 million option for 2012 that vests immediately upon a trade, which is sure to scare off most teams even if Ramirez agrees to a trade. If both of those issues can be worked out, Ramirez will end 2011 in a different uniform as well.
Of course, huge props to MLB Trade Rumors, without whom this sort of post would take years to research.
