After a successful career at the University of Mississippi, Zack Cozart was drafted in the second round of the 2007 Draft by the Cincinnati Reds. Signing quickly, he was placed on the High-A Dayton team, but he struggled in his debut to the tune of a .239/.288/.332 line. Cozart repeated the level the following season and made significant improvements, now hitting .280/.330/457. During the following season in 2009, Cozart was promoted to AA Carlina, and he had an odd year for him as he hit for less power but drew a career-high in walks by over 20 for a .360 OBP. Cozart, however, struggled in his promotion to AAA Louisville in 2010, hitting .255/.310/.416, and his stock dropped.
Coming into this season, scouts were concerned about Cozart’s bat. Defensively, Cozart has average range and an average arm, but he can stay at shortstop, which is a very valuable thing. Cozart boosts his average speed with good instincts, and he’s stolen 48 bases (caught only 7 times) over the past two-plus seasons. But the concerns about the bat were real. Kevin Goldstein rated him 7th on the Reds’ list, Baseball America rated him 8th, John Sickels rated him 11th, and Keith Law didn’t even put him on his 10 list for the Reds. The lack of production with the stick and his age (24 at the time, 25 this season) was killing Cozart’s stock.
That was before this season. This season, Cozart has ripped off an impressive first half, hitting .318/.361/.491, and those are all career-highs so far. Cozart already has 26 doubles (4 away from his career-high) and 7 home runs. There are some causes for concern, however. Cozart has never been a patient hitter, with the exception of 2009, and he’s only walking 6% of the time, which won’t help his OBP. His average may also be unsustainable as his BABiPs all rested in the .286-.309 range, but it has skyrocketed to .355 this season. If he isn’t hitting for a high batting average and isn’t getting walks to offset it, he won’t be a valuable offensive asset. To make matters worse, he is repeating the level.
Luckily for him, he can play shortstop, which limits the need for offensive production, and the alternatives for the Reds may be much worse. Paul Janish is hitting .232/.260/.275 and isn’t much better defensively than Cozart, and Edgar Renteria sports a .227/.314/.252 line and is much worse defensively than Cozart. It’s fairly obvious that the Reds aren’t getting any production from these veterans, and while Cozart’s AAA production may not be sustainable, he offers more potential and probably present value as well. He’s already on the 40-man roster, so there’s no excuse for the Reds keeping the young man down in AAA. It’s time to see what he’s got.
