When it comes to getting major-league talent from the draft, you’ll find most of it in the first round. Sure, there are several players on each team that are from different rounds, but a disproportionate amount of roster spots end up in the hands of first round talents. This shouldn’t be surprising. The guys drafted in the first round are the best guys available each year, but the top guys in the draft are also the ones you have probably heard about—Anthony Rendon, Gerritt Cole, Danny Hultzen. That being said, what I’d like to do is point out a few guys that might get selected late in the first round/supplemental round/second round that you might want to pay attention to.
Josh Bell (LF/RF) – HS
He’s really only here because he apparently sent around a letter saying he didn’t want to get drafted, but more than a few people believe that be a ploy by “supervisor” Scott Boras. The 6’3” outfielder has really one usable skill—hitting the ball hard—but it’s a good one. He hits from both sides of the plate, and he can hit and hit for power. Defensively, he’ll have to move to a corner, and it might be left field if his arm doesn’t improve. Regardless, the offense should be more than enough to carry him and get him drafted fairly high, but with his demand, he may slip in the draft from late first round to the 8-10th round when someone just tries to take a gamble. My guess is someone tries much earlier than that.
Brandon Nimmo (CF) – HS
When scouts look at high school players, they look hard at the tools and hope they turn into useful skills. Nimmo has upper-echelon skills. He has a nice left-handed swing, and the 6’2”, 185 lb. frame indicates there’s room for growth and the addition of more power. Defensively, he can definitely play center, and he’s one of the best sprinters in the state. But that’s the problem. He’s from Wyoming, and scouts haven’t been able to get a great look at him because his high school doesn’t have a baseball team. The story reminds people of Mike Trout, and while he’s unlikely to be that good, he should give great value relative to where he’s selected.
Larry Greene (1B/LF) – HS
Similar to Bell, Greene’s stock is all about his bat. He has great raw power, but that’s about it. He might have enough speed to play a corner spot in the outfield, but he’s likely to end up at first base. And if you’re pinned to one of those spots, you need to not only hit. You need to rake. This is where scouts disagree. The range of outcomes for Greene is massive, but as the second rounds wanes, someone will gamble on the power.
Trevor Story (SS) – HS
Shortstops are in short supply. Well, present shortstops who are likely to stick there by the time they get to the majors are in short supply. There’s no concern about that with Story. He’s a very good defensive shortstop with good range, instincts, and arm. The questions that push him out of the first round are about the bat. Some believe he has the bat speed and running speed to be a really good lead-off type hitter that just needs some mechanical adjustments. Others think there are more than just mechanical issues. Someone will bank on the tools.
Henry Owens (LHP) – HS
Usually, scouts like to see plus stuff from pitchers and expect to see command issues. Owens, however, is about the opposite. He has an 88-91 fastball along with a decent curve, slider, cutter, and change-up. Normally, that’s not first-round stuff, even from a lefty, but Owens has a few advantages—he’s young (18) and has a 6’6” frame that screams projection. If he can add a few mphs and firm up the off-speed stuff, his ceiling might hit the roof.
Andrew Chafin (LHP) – Kent State
Chafin had Tommy John surgery, but as so many others have, he’s come back strong. His fastball sits 91-94, and he can hit 95-96. His slider can be a wipeout pitch, but it’s held back by the present inability to really locate it, which could simply be because of just having come back from elbow surgery. The change-up has improved, and it gives him that pivotal third pitch. Chafin is probably a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher at the moment, but if he can maintain the velocity and improve the location of his slider and change-up, he might be a bit more.
Josh Osich (LHP) – Oregon State
The primary concern with Osich is his age (22). He had Tommy John surgery last season that ruined his chances to be drafted in 2010. He’s come back strong, has a fastball that can reach 98 but will sit 90-94 when he starts, has a nasty slider, and a decent change-up. Again, the major concern and what hurts his stock is that he’s 22 and at least a year older than the other available pitchers. I’m just not sure that should be a problem. He doesn’t have more mileage on his arm, and who cares if he makes it at age 24 or 25?
Joe Ross (RHP) – HS
Ross’ brother Tyson pitches for the Athletics, but most believe Joe is a better pitcher. With much smoother mechanics than his brother, he already sits 90-94 and can touch 96, and at 6’2”, he might have room for a little more. He has a hard breaking ball, but like most high school pitchers, he needs more repetitions to improve the pitch’s location. Ross also has a promising change-up that should help give him a third pitch. Chances are that he will be the highest-selected pitcher on this list.
Information culled from Baseball America and Keith Law (mostly) and compared/distilled down for your enjoyment.
