Mariners rookie starter Michael Pineda did it again today, shutting out the Nationals over seven innings while allowing just four hits and one walk, and striking out nine. His ERA for the year now sits at 2.45, and he’s got 94 strikeouts over 95 2/3 innings. The concept of this post was originally going to be “is he a slam dunk for Rookie of the Year?”, and I was able to determine in about five seconds that yes, he is. The highest OPS for a rookie in the AL is Mark Trumbo’s .774 line, which is good but not great. Pineda’s closest competition on the mound is Jeremy Hellickson of the Rays, who has 37 fewer strikeouts, ten more walks, and an ERA .64 higher in five more innings. So what I’m saying here, is that barring an injury or a dramatic collapse, Pineda will be your 2011 AL Rookie of the Year.
I looked at what Pineda is doing and realized that he’s having a spectacular year, rookie or not. He’s fifth in the league in ERA, is first in strikeout rate, and has a solid walk rate. It made me wonder how many rookie pitchers have done anything like that. 200 strikeouts seems like a near certainty for Pineda. So I wanted to see how many rookie pitchers had an ERA under 3.00, and had 200 strikeouts in a season. The list is very brief.
Topping the list is Doc Gooden’s 1984 season. At the age of 19, Gooden struck out 276 hitters in 218 innings, while walking 73 and putting up a 2.60 ERA. Gooden won the NL Rookie of the Year, one vote shy of unanimously, and finished second in the NL Cy Young balloting to Rick Sutcliffe, who swept the voting thanks to a 16-1 record after being acquired by the Cubs from the Indians.
Next up? Hideo Nomo in 1995. Nomo struck out 236 in 191 1/3 innings, while walking 78 and having a 2.54 ERA. This really is kind of cheating though, since Nomo was 26 during his rookie season after spending years pitching in Japan. He edged Chipper Jones in the NL ROY voting, with many voting for Chipper instead because of the age factor.
In 1966, another Dodger, Don Sutton, hit the benchmarks. He struck out 209 in 225 2/3 innings and walked 52 with a 2.99 ERA at age 21. He didn’t receive any ROY votes. Finally, there’s Gary Nolan of the Reds in 1967. At the age of only 19, Nolan struck out 206, walked 62, and pitched 226 2/3 innings of 2.58 ball. He finished third in ROY voting behind a pair of pitchers: Tom Seaver and Dick Hughes. Either of these two guys would probably be the best comparison for Pineda, aside from the innings pitched. They both had good control and struck out slightly less than a batter an inning, which is where Pineda is now.
The point I’m trying to make is that in the past fifty seasons, only four players could boast that they did what Pineda could possibly do this year. Think of all the great pitchers that have thrown in this game, and realize that none of them have had this much success early in their careers in comparison to Pineda. When you combine Pineda with Felix Hernandez, the Mariners have a hell of a one-two punch in their rotation. They might not win the division this year, but they’ve definitely got a leg up on the rest of the division for the future years with the top of their rotation.
