Wait ‘til next year.
Cubs fans have heard that one before. Actually, they’ve heard it for 103 consecutive years. The lovable losers haven’t been to the playoffs since 2008 and just finished wrapping up their second consecutive losing season. Not only that, but they’re still on the books for the plump contacts of Alfnoso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano, both of whom are well beyond their prime and producing at barely above replacement levels. That’s basically $38M on the books for 2012 and Zambrano has more than likely already thrown his last pitch in a Cubs uniform. Not a promising start.
Then, along came Theo.
If you weren’t sure whether or not the Cubs were serious about making a splash this offseason, well, they’ve already cannonballed into the pool.
Long time Red Sox GM, Theo Epstein, has reportedly agreed to a five-year deal to take over a large role in the Cubs’ front office operations. He’ll have more control than he did with the Red Sox, which means he’ll be responsible for a lot of decisions and the pressure of turning this franchise around quickly.
What does Theo need to do to contend sooner rather than later? Here’s my take…
Though I know it is very much a fools errand, Theo needs to heat up his smart phone and laptop, make calls, send texts and emails to every GM in the league, hoping, no, begging that someone is willing to take on at least a little bit of either Alfnoso Soriano or Carlos Zambrano’s salary. He shouldn’t be looking for much, “Just a salary dump.” He’ll say. This, of course, won’t work out that easily, as Soriano’s contract seems impossible to move, but I think he could manage to dump Zambrano because in the end the Cubs should still be willing to pay most of if not all of his salary for some type of return; maybe a twelver of Old Style? That might do just fine, since Theo will need a drink or two during this offseason.
Since any GM would be resigned to the fact that Alfonso Soriano is the starting left fielder through 20andfreaking14 — unless he’s so bad that it’s less painful to simply release him — adding some speed to the outfield, center field in particular, would be a good idea.
While Marlon Byrd is a nice little player and he plays a fine defensive center field, looking to deal him this offseason may be prudent. He’s not under contract past 2012, and this team may not be able to complete their turnaround in one season alone. Byrd’s $6.5M contract is not too much for most teams to take on, so the Cubs should be able to get some decent value in return. Brett Jackson, the team’s 23-year-old top prospect, is ready for his big-league shot. His on base skills, speed and 15-plus home run power are exactly what this team needs up the middle.
The first person to call is Ruben Amaro Jr.
“Hey Ruben, looks like you could use another outfielder. I’ll give you Byrd, Samardzjia and (name your mid-level prospect) in exchange for Dominic Brown, who won’t, apparently, be helping your big league team this summer. I mean for crying out loud Ruben, the man will already be 25 in September!”
Somehow, someway, through a deal like the one above or otherwise, Theo needs to try and turn his current centerfield asset into something of use beyond the 2012 season.
If he can’t fill the vacancy in right field via a trade, there are some decent mid-range free agent options out there this offseason. Something to the affect of a two-year deal for the services of someone like Michael Cuddyer or Josh Willingham at around $6 or $7M per year could work, though neither is a great option defensively.
Given the Cubs’ minor league system and what should be available on the free agent market, it’s beyond clear that having Alfonso Soriano’s statue imbedded in left field makes fixing this outfield an extremely difficult task.
The Cubs’ infield has two positions set. Starlin Castro, learning and improving on the job at short and Geovany Soto (with a career .348 OBP and power) at catcher. Long-time Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez has suggested that his days with the north siders are over. He said that he will opt out of his $16M option and look to sign with a contender. Then again, under Theo, did the Cubs just become contenders? Not quite yet, but I think Theo could convince A-Ram that this team WILL be a contender if not in 2012, then by 2013 at the latest. Hopefully, three years and between $42-45M will do the trick. That would put him back in a Cubs uniform through his age 36 season. Just yesterday, Ramirez retracted his previous statement a bit, saying that he’d consider staying if offered a multi-year deal.
It is highly unlikely that Darwin Barney fits the mold of a starting second baseman employed by Theo Epstein. Perhaps one of Kelly Johnson or Aaron Hill remains available as a free agent and are willing to look at a one or two-two year deal. Both had poor seasons, but both performed better since being swapped between the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. They both have a chance to have a decent bounce back and, if nothing else, both play solid defense. Aaron Hill in particular seemed to need the change of scenery after falling from star to scrub in Toronto.
I’m sure Cubs fans will be clamoring for the team to go after one of Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, but given what is likely to be very lofty contract demands from both camps, that would probably be a bad investment. It may be worth it to give Bryan LaHair a shot and spend the cash where the team really needs help.
As of right now, the Cubs’ rotation consists of Matt Garza…and that’s it! Ryan Dempster may choose to opt out of his $14M option, but hopefully his strong relationship with the team and strong ties with the city make him want to stay. It might not even be a bad idea to look at offering his a one-year $15M extension to keep him around for the 2013 World Series run. Dempster had the highest BABIP of his career last season (minimum 150 IP) and his 3.70 xFIP points to a possible bounce back season in 2012. At one point, pitching prospects Jay Jackson, Trey McNutt and Chris Carpenter were expected to have an impact by the 2012 season, but all three hit major roadblock this past summer. Out of the three, McNutt may be the most ready for a big league look come spring. The 22-year-old’s numbers before this season were outstanding – a 2.48 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 116.1 combined innings from single to double-A in 2010 — but he had to deal with finger blisters and a rib injury in 2011. He’s currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League and could resuscitate his prospect status with a healthy performance. Having a young, upside laden, inexpensive fifth starter in the rotation for 2012 and beyond would be huge for the Cubs. If the rotation could start with Garza, Dempster and McNutt (or insert you cheap fifth starter here), then Theo could target one or two big guns, assuming ownership is willing to push the budget a little. Here are three possible targets and estimated price tags…
CC Sabathia – Likely to opt out of current deal, 6yrs/$25-$27M per
Hiroki Kuroda – 2yrs/$14-15M per
Edwin Jackson – 2-3yrs/$9-10M per
C.J. Wilson is another possibility, but he’s not as attractive as Sabathia and will probably be asking for similar years.
Ideally, the Cubs would lure Sabathia away from the Yankees, reminding him how easy it would be to carve up the National League once again (and that he gets to hit!), then one of Kuroda/Jackson (preferably Kuroda). That would make for a starting four of Sabathia, Garza, Kuroda and (insert your cheap fifth starter here).
Then, for the World Series run of 2013, these potential free agent starters could be available during the 2012 offseason*:
*Names not listed for some players I believe will have their options exercised.
Cole Hamels
Zack Greinke
Matt Cain
Shaun Marcum
Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Jonathan Sanchez
Ervin Santana
John Danks
The goal here is top build a realistic contender for 2013 and pitching is this team’s biggest weakness. Given the current state of the farm system, it is also the area that needs the most money invested towards.
As for the bullpen, not much needs to change. Hopefully Kerry Wood decides to come back on a home-team discount once again and Andrew Cashner, who’s touching triple digits in the Arizona Fall League stays in the bullpen to add even more depth there. One big move Theo could look at is to trade 2011 breakout reliever Jeff Samardzjia. The ideal situation would be to use Samardzjia’s sparkling 2.97 ERA and 88 innings pitched as trade bate. Of course, Theo might fail to mention his five walks per nine innings pitched, very low .253 BABIP and 4.27 xFIP. If Theo could turn him and his multi-million 2012 option into anything of value, I’d have to think he would do it in a heartbeat.
It will be interesting to see what approach Epstein takes with regard to the coaching staff. Does Mike Quade get another shot or does Theo bring in his own guy? How about Terry Francona? Now THAT would be something to stir the headlines with!
Turning the Cubs around will not be an easy task. The contracts of Soriano and Zambrano are obvious roadblocks, but the lack of major league ready talent from the farm system is just as worrisome. Obviously, this team needs to continue to take steps to improve its minor league depth.
The good news is that the Chicago market allows the Cubs to have a hefty payroll. Plus, not counting arbitration numbers, the only contract currently on the books for 2013 is that of Alfonso Soriano at about $19M, so there is room to spend and spend big.
If the Cubs start winning again, the city and fan base will undoubtedly respond by filling the rafters of Wrigley Field once more. As long as the $130M-plus payroll is spent wisely – on the team’s biggest need, starting pitching — the door is open for a somewhat quick fix on Chicago’s north side.
All contract info via Cot’s Contracts
